Hi all,

Inside today’s main piece there are more Cheltenham Festival trends & stats.

Cheltenham Going/Weather Watch

We can rest easy about watering ahead of this year's Cheltenham Festival. February saw approximately 100mm of rainfall, rendering the course soft, with some areas heavy on Monday.

Looking ahead at the extended weather forecast, rain isn't anticipated in any significant quantities. The forthcoming four days are expected to be dry, and although there's a forecast for some rain over the weekend, it's not expected to be substantial. However, given the high-water table at Cheltenham, any unexpected rainfall would impede the drying trend. Nevertheless, my intuition suggests that the track conditions for the festival's opening day will likely be good to soft, with some areas being soft. In effect the sort of going that the Clerk of the Course wants to start the meeting, but all achieved naturally.

Constitution Hill and Marine Nationale to Miss Cheltenham

It doesn’t surprise me that Nicky Henderson announced that Constitution Hill would miss the Champion Hurdle.

Is Constitution Hill’s season over or will he go to the Punchestown Festival? Hopefully it’s the latter but my hunch is they will draw stumps for this season.

In the last few weeks, the yard has had the odd winner but overall, the horses have been well beaten and plenty at short odds.

I suspect the yard has a virus; it has affected some of the horses but not all. I'm not sure about you but I will be wary of the Henderson horses next week.

The absence of Constitution Hill from the Champion Hurdle means Irish Point is likely to be switched here from the Stayers Hurdle which is frustrating for me.

It was also announced yesterday that Arkle favourite Marine Nationale will miss that race due to a a suspensory strain injury.

Cheltenham Festival Stats

With just seven days until the start of the 2024 Cheltenham Festival, if last week I wasn't feeling the Cheltenham buzz, I can assure you I’m now firmly chomping at the bit and can’t wait for the show to get started.

This week’s focus is on all things Cheltenham. For the next few days, I’m going to share with you plenty of festival trends and stats. If you can't get enough of the Cheltenham Festival, you'll love this week's offerings. However, if you're not a fan, you're probably going to hate it.

My first angle is for owner JP McManus but it’s not just a Cheltenham Festival specific. Talking about JP McManus watch his Istabraq winning his third Champion Hurdle in 2000.

The Lowdown on JP McManus Handicap Hurdlers

With the Cheltenham Festival just a week away I have been digging into horseracebase.com looking for some profitable Festival angles. Whilst doing so I came across a profitable angle for owner JP McManus’ and his handicap hurdlers.

JP McManus has made a name for himself not only as a successful gambler and businessman but also as a passionate owner and supporter of the sport both in Britain and Ireland.

His Iconic green and gold silks are often in the winner's enclosure, and he has a reputation for placing substantial bets on his carefully selected horses.

Since 2017 the key to making money with the JP handicap hurdles is when the money is down. This is his record with qualifiers going off 12/1 & under. However, it’s his UK handicap hurdlers you need to focus on.

The McManus handicap hurdlers returned 12/1 & less have a win strike rate of close to 20%. That’s some strike rate. It’s even more notable that you could have backed them and have made a profit of £79.04 to a £1 level stake.  The profit is even better if you had backed them to BetfairSP +207.57

As a point of reference look at the record of the famous green & gold colours with his handicap hurdlers 14/1 & bigger.

Yes, he does have winners who are returned 14/1 & bigger but since 2017 only nine of them and you would have lost plenty of money backing them.

Those JP stats are certainly worth keeping in mind when it comes to the Cheltenham Festival.  For those of you interested here’s his record at the Cheltenham Festival with qualifiers going off 12/1 & under.

Those returned 14/1 & bigger are – 0 winners from 48 runners -48, 5 placed.  

More Angles:

Here’s a couple of simple angles. The first is one for favourite backers and the second is composed of a group of trainers whose runners in handicaps are worth noting.

Cheltenham Festival Favourites:

Clear favourites have won just under 31% of races at the Cheltenham Festival since 2017.

That’s some decent figures for backers of the ‘jolly’. However, you’d still have lost money backing them all.

There’s a simple and profitable angle for festival favourite and here are the rules.

They produced the following results.

There probably won’t be many qualifiers this year and it won’t damage your betting bank should you follow them. 

Cheltenham Festival Handicap Trainers:

Whilst digging into Horseracebase I wanted to find a promising trainer angle for the festival handicap races.

Here are five trainers who have targeted the Cheltenham Festival very well in recent seasons and are punching above their weight. They are Kim Bailey, Martin Brassil, Paul Nolan, Lucinda Russell, and Sue Smith.

Granted between them they have only had five winners but just look at the place strike rate at just under 46%. If you had backed all 37 qualifiers each-way you would have made +66.08.

I will be paying attention to any runners from the above yards next week and I suggest you do to.

There will be more trends and stats in tomorrow’s column.

Tuesday Preview:

No tracker horses for the next two weeks so it’s straight onto to Tuesday’s racing.

Thurles

Thurles provides the day’s most valuable race for Thurles Handicap Hurdle (5:10) with €9,440 on offer to the winner.

Recent Punchestown maiden hurdle winner Linden Arden and Shannon Royale hail from powerful yards and are sure to be popular. However, I’m going for handicap debutant Native Speaker. The 6-year-old has progressed with each of his three starts over hurdles. He was a 12 length 2^nd of 8 from Built By Ballymore at Limerick (2m 5f) last time, the winner has gone in again since and is fancied for next week’s Coral Cup. The further he went at Limerick the stronger he looked and he should be suited by today’s step up in trip.

Southwell

Some big fields and competitive albeit low grade racing under the lights at Southwell

6:00 – Leap Day got off the mark over C&D in December and has remained in from since. Last time the 4-year-old posted a career best on RPR’s when a neck 2^nd of 12 at Newcastle 21 days ago. Up a couple of notches in class but should go well. Assessment is interesting on stable debut for Archie Watson. The top weight hasn’t been since pulling up at Sandown in May. A winner on the polytrack but unproven on the tapeta.

7:30 – Bringbackmemories won a handicap here (1m 4f) two starts back and ran almost as well when a 3 length 3^rd of 9 over C&D 42 days ago. He was ridden by an inexperienced handicapper last time and should benefit from more professional handling this evening.

Tuesday Selection:

Yesterday’s selection Highway One O Five came in for good support buthe fell out the back of telly and ran like an old yak.  He may well still be running for all I know. The race was won by the consistent Mr Freedom. Monday’s smaller field possibly helped but it was a well deserved success after some consistent efforts in better races.

Thurles

5:10 – Native Speaker.

Good luck with your Tuesday bets.

John