Morning all,

We can firmly look ahead to Cheltenham now. Granted we have two Saturdays of racing until the tapes go up on the runners in the Supreme. However, with all due respect to Kelso’s Morebattle Hurdle Day, Newbury’s Greatwood Gold Cup, and the Imperial Cup at Sandown it’s all about Cheltenham now.

The final pieces of the “Festival” puzzle were put in place on Tuesday. With the publication of the weights for the Cheltenham handicaps.

Inside today’s column you’ll find my penultimate “Path To Cheltenham” instalment. Plus, there’s a Thursday selection from Ludlow.

Path To Cheltenham

It was nice to see some Cheltenham traditions continue i.e., the yearly complaint about Irish runner’s handicap weights.

This year it was Gordon Elliott telling the Racing Post:

“To be honest, it baffles me how a horse can have different ratings…Why are we all not operating off the same ratings? Should all these handicappers not be working off the same level playing field?”.

I suppose that would be one way to ensure all the handicap races fell to Irish trained runners.

It’s difficult to have a very strong opinion on the Cheltenham handicaps given so many horses have multiple entries. I put up Mr Fred Rogers up ante post for the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle but he recently lost his life. However, the Martin Pipe is a race I like and its one I normally have two or three darts at. Well, I think I might have found another for the race and it's another Gordon Elliott trained runner.

Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle

Last season’s runner-up Langer Dan had a quiet run round Taunton on his seasonal reappearance last week. The handicapper rather surprisingly dropped him 3lb for that effort. Which meant not unsurprisingly that bookies cut him to around 5/1 for the race.

On the face of it looks a bit of a gift for the Dan Skelton trained 6-year-old. Who was runner-up to Galopin Des Champs in the race 12 months ago.

The Goffer has been given a rating of 140 by the British Handicapper which is 6lb more than his Irish mark. The 5-year-old made it 2-5 over hurdles when winning a Grade 3 novice hurdle at Thurles last month. It’s a race that Elliott won with Blow By Blow in 2018 before that horse went on to win the Martin Pipe. Going the right way an showed a likable attitude to hold off several challenger’s last time. He will stay further than 2m 4 ½ f which is no bad thing in a race like the Martin Pipe and has the scope to make up into a high-class staying chaser next season.

Having come up against Galopin Des Champs last year maybe Langer Dan is going to face another potentially well treated handicap debutant in The Goffer. As low as 10/1 with Bet Victor. He’s a standout 16/1 with Bet365 which looks good value to this particular pundit.

Martin Pipe Selection: The Goffer – 16/1 @ Bet365 (NRNB).

It’s possible that The Goffer will be my final Cheltenham ante post selection for 2022. Although I have to say I’m tempted by one in the Gold Cup. You’ll find out next week if I have gone for it.

Cheltenham Festival Angles: Nailing big priced winners

I have another Cheltenham Festival angle to share with you today.  This one is not for the faint-hearted. There are plenty of qualifiers and the win strike rate is very low. However, it’s a very profitable angle.

Since 2016 there have been 31 winners at the Cheltenham Festival that were returned 16/1 or bigger. Last season there was 5 winners from 233 runners -38.

Far, far too many qualifiers but there is a profitable angle that may help you pinpoint those elusive long shots. It’s a simple one but has been profitable for the last five festivals and is performing 77% above market expectations.

Here’s the qualifying criteria:

Irish trained runners:

Odds: 16/1 or bigger

Ran on Soft, Soft To Heavy, Yielding or Yielding To Soft last time.

Horses who ran on heavy on their last start are 0 winners from 104 runners -70. Ignoring those who ran on the deepest ground of all produced:

14 winners from 215 runners +231 (+507.74 BFSP) 36 placed. Even each backers made a +288.40 profit.

Here is the yearly breakdown by P/L (SP):

2021 – +103

2020 – +46

2019 – +48

2018 – +7

2017 – +33

2016 – -6

That’s an average of around 38 qualifiers each festival. You’ll to get through plenty of losers but the winners odds do make up for it.

My final Cheltenham Festival stats/angles piece will be in next Thursday’s column.  

Thursday Racing

Racing is back in Ireland today with a seven-race card at Clonmel.  At Ludlow the feature race is the Forbra Gold Cup (3.00). There’s more jumps action at Taunton. Plus, all-weather fixtures at Southwell and Newcastle.

Here’s a quick preview of Ludlow’s Forbra Gold Cup.

Ludlow

3:00 – Just five have been declared for the Ludlow feature. Nonetheless its an intriguing 3m handicap chase and you make a case for all five runners.

Head To The Stars bid a race hat trick and made it 3-6 over C&D when winning here two starts back. The 11-year-old found Warwick’s Classic Chase too hot last time and will appreciate the return to Class 3 company. 

No Getaway made most to win at Sandown (2m 4f) 12 months ago. He’s on a winning looking mark but stamina for 3m is a concern.

Java Point saw of six rivals here over 2m 4f in January. Before a respectable performance when a 15-length 3^rd of 8 to Imperial Alcazar at Cheltenham last time. Looks worth a try at 3m.

Golden Whiskey took his Ludlow form figures to 21 when winning winner here last January.  The 6-year-old added to his win tally at Chepstow over Christmas before disappointing in a better race at Ascot last time.

The Alan King yard is struggling for winners and he saddles Canelo here. Unlike three of his rivals there are no stamina concerns with the 9-year-old. He’s also down to handy mark when he revives. However, the 2020 Rowland Meyrick winner has been out of form for over 12 months now.

With doubts over stamina for the likes of No Getaway and Golden Whiskey. Yard form for Java Point and well-being Canelo. The solid choice looks to be the formerly inconsistent Head To The Stars.

Selection: Head To The Stars

Good luck with your Thursday bets.

John