Hi all,
Inside today's main piece I'm looking back at Saturday's Classic Trials at Newbury.
Saturday served up a proper mix—Classic trials on the Flat at Newbury and a dramatic Coral Scottish Grand National at Ayr. I’ve focused today’s main piece on Newbury’s Greenham meeting, which delivered a few surprises and threw up as many questions as answers.
Newbury Classic Trials Recap
Yes, the Flat is well and truly back.
Newbury’s Greenham Classic Trial Day usually follows the Craven Meeting. But with Easter falling early, it came before the season kicked off at HQ. And what a day it turned out to be. All three Group 3 favourites were turned over, with winners returning at big prices.
Divina Springs a John Porter Surprise
The Group 3 John Porter Stakes (1m4f) looked ideal for the Classic placed and class dropping Sunway. He travelled well and loomed large a furlong out. But the lack of a recent run told, and Divina Grace, who dictated steady fractions, found more when it mattered. She held off Tabletalk by a short head to win on stable debut for Andrew Balding. The drying ground helped both front two—though it may not have suited the favourite.
Fred Darling Turns into a Rout
Punters steamed into Mountain Breeze for the Fred Darling Stakes (7f), but she flopped. The field split early, came together mid-race—and then one filly burst clear. Duty First, ignored in the market at 33/1, powered away for a 3¼-length win.
Duty First is in the Irish 1,000 Guineas but not in the Newmarket race—though trainer Archie Watson hinted at a supplementary entry. That looks a bold move. I’m not convinced she’s a Newmarket Guineas filly. She didn’t handle the dip last year and might struggle over a stiff mile.
Hey Boo, who I flagged on Saturday, outran her 40/1 odds in second. She proved herself on turf and should win something soon. The third-placed Time For Sandals who was weak in the betting shaped like she needed the run. A drop to 6f could suit.
Last year’s Fred Darling produced 1,000 Guineas winner Elmalka. I’d be surprised if this renewal did the same.
Jonquil Strikes in the Greenham
Jonquil, who flopped on his final start for Sir Michael Stoute last year, made a sparkling winning debut for Andrew Balding.
The pace was steady, and the winning time was slower than the Fred Darling. But Jonquil still quickened up well to see off Rashabar.
Rashabar brought the best 2yo form into the race but drifted in the market. He ran well, though may have needed it. He’s clearly useful, but Group 1 might be a stretch.
Saracen did well in third. He came from off the pace—a tough task over the two days at Newbury. His finish suggests a step up to a mile will suit the colt. He could head to France, where the Poule d’Essai des Poulains (French 2,000 Guineas) looks a good fit.
Jonquil, meanwhile, seems likely to head to Newmarket for the 2,000 Guineas. If he builds on this, he’s a serious contender.
Three Things We Learnt from Classic Trials Day
Godolphin’s Trial Runners Disappointed. Both Mountain Breeze and Al Qudra flopped. That’s a worry with the Craven meeting coming up.
The Market Was Way Off. Big winners. Late drifters. Outsiders everywhere. Tough day to call.
Balding’s String is Flying. He won two Group 3s with stable debutants. His team look primed for a strong season.
Carnage and Class: Captain Cody Conquers Brutal Scottish Grand National
Twenty-three went to post for the Coral Scottish Grand National, and it was a war of attrition. The betting was wide open—15/2 the field—but few could have predicted how the race would unfold.
Ed Chamberlain called it “eventful.” I’d call it brutal.
The carnage started at the very first fence. Last year’s runner-up Surrey Quest fell, hampering Sail Away, who unseated. That set the tone for the rest of the race.
Sadly, the drama turned to tragedy. Macdermott, last year’s winner, broke down approaching the 10th. Then Walking On Air was pulled up before the 15th – carrying out Spanish Harlem, who looked to be going well at the time to think he would have played a hand in the finish.
It didn’t stop there. Promising young staying handicap chaser, The Kniphand fell two out and was also fatally injured.
But at the front end, things were clearer. Klarc Kent, fourth in 2023, jumped the last three lengths ahead of Captain Cody. For a few strides, he looked the likely winner.
Not so. Captain Cody, under a confident Harry Cobden, hadn’t been asked a question. When Cobden pushed the button on the run in, the 7-year-old quickened smartly and went by with something to spare. Coming from the rear Cobden’s confidence was clearly vindicated as he knew what he had under him.
It was a high class staying performance by the winner on only his fifth run over fences. The further they went, the stronger he looked. You’d imagine Aintree might now be on the radar for next season.
Sadly, Captain Cody’s success will be overshadowed by the fatalities in what wasn’t a pleasant race to watch.
What Did We Learn?
Stick to the core trends. I highlighted four key trends in Wednesday’s column. While there were no outright qualifiers, removing the wins on the going stat, left four Mullins qualifiers. The winner was one of them.
I sided with Chosen Witness and Spanish Harlem—but left out the right one.
The three trends which have now found the last 10 winners of the race are:
Official Rating: 135 to 146
Runs in the Season: 4 to 7
Last Time Out Placing: First Five or fell or unseated rider.
Of the those the official rating 135–146 seems most crucial.
Will the trend deliver a third National success in the Irish version?
You’ll find out next Monday when I reveal the trends for the race. Stay tuned.
Monday Racing: Pontefract’s £30k Feature
There’s decent prize money on offer at Pontefract this afternoon, with the RIU Hotels And Resorts Handicap (3:35) worth £30,000. It’s a competitive 1m2f contest and here’s a quick look at some key players.
Calumet didn’t get much luck in running at Kempton on reappearance, squeezed out in the straight. He’s unexposed and looks capable of striking off this mark, though the yard is quiet.
Qitaal ran well when third in a big-field handicap at Doncaster. He’s off the same mark here and should go well again, but would prefer some give underfoot.
Marhaba The Champ goes well fresh but needs quick ground to be seen at his best. He’s now 3lb below his last winning mark and was successful first time up two seasons back. Dangerous if the ground stays fast.
Siempre Arturo had a great 2024 with five wins and returns off a career-high mark of 91. Jim Crowley is 2-2 on him and takes the ride again. Could go well, especially if this turns into a stamina test.
Forceful Speed is 3-4 at Pontefract and unbeaten in four starts on good or good to firm ground. He doesn’t always fire first time up, but the track and ground are perfect. Yard in fine form too.
Lightening Company won this in 2023 and finished second last year. He thrives in April (form figures 112) and is rock solid fresh (form figures 1113). May just need a bit more ease in the ground to be seen at best.
Verdict:
A tight handicap where all nine runners have a chance. Forceful Speed is the one to side with on good or quicker ground—he’s proven at the track and the yard’s going well. Lightening Company rarely runs a bad race here and can hit the frame again, especially if the rain comes. Siempre Arturo is interesting if it turns into a test of stamina, especially with Crowley back on board. I am not sure if I will be having a bet in the race I will check the prices on Monday morning.
Newmarket's Craven Meeting get's underway on Tuesday and in tomorrow's column I'll be looking at the three of the feature races.
Good luck with your Monday bets.
John