Today we have a guest post from Paul Ruffy of Winning Racing Tips.
Have a good look at these two results. The first race is from a run of the mill, regular Novice race held at Hexham yesterday, the second is the result from the Champion Hurdle race held at Cheltenham.
What do these two results have in common?
They are both hurdle races, yes. They are both over 2 miles, yes. They were both run on identical underfoot conditions, yes. But that’s all by the by. What I’m interested in is the fact that they both have an odds-on favourite and have 8 or more runners. They are BOTH what I’d call “good each way races”.
But finding good each way races to bet in is only part of the story. You see although both of the above races looked good races to bet in each way, the lower grade race at Hexham was actually a significantly better one – Even though the Champion Hurdle offered ¼ odds the places compared to the regular 1/5 at Hexham.
High class races such as those held during the Cheltenham Festival are generally always well contested. That means all runners are primed to go well, and aren’t using the race as a stepping stone to better fitness or anything like that. There’s big prize money for even the minor placings which ensures a proper race.
The result at Cheltenham backed that up with only two out of the 10 runners finishing detached from the rest. Even though this was a race in that the runners finished in more of heap than is usual for the race, compare the margins that separated the runners at the finish at Hexham – only the first 4 were in the race and most were miles behind or pulled up.
The pre race market for the Hexham race told me that most of the field had little or no chance – runners priced 50/1 or greater can normally be backed at three times those odds on the exchanges for good reason. I had it down as essentially a two horse race, between Gottany O’s and Guess Again which was my each way bet at 3/1.
Overpriced was the only other potential each way option but he was rated miles behind Guess Again on ratings, and looked exposed.
Now, 3/1 might sound a little short for some to back each way. But as always I did the math and at 1/5 place odds we were getting 1.6 (or 3/5) for the place part of our e/w bet. The true odds were about 1/7 or 1.14. Getting 1.6 when 1.14 is about the correct price sounds ok to me. (These bets are commonly known as an each way steal and the bookies hate them!)
[Note from Dave: This bet represents extremely good value on the place part and Paul could have layed the win part off at Betfair if a short term strategy was preferred]
How did I know the correct price? Well firstly I’m looking at the form on offer of all the runners and their place chances based on that, but for an easy way to get a feel of what the right price should be simply look at the opinion of the market as a whole, by checking the place only price on Betfair and with the bookmakers via oddschecker.
As it turned out Guess Again won the race but for me was always extremely likely to at least place, and had it been 2nd or 3rd I’d have got a return on my bet equating to a small loss of 20% from my total stakes, (£16 from £10 e/w) which I’d have been happy to accept.
In the Champion Hurdle the each way options were many. You couldn’t really totally discount any of the runners bar one or two and most peoples each way shortlist would have contained: Binocular, Zarkandar, Rock On Ruby and Oscars Well. Using stats and analysis I selected Binocular as my each way pick as he had won the race previously and looked the most solid option.
In the end he finished just outside the places in fourth. Which in truth I was little disappointed with as there’s something rewarding about getting things right in the top races- you could call it “Kudos” I suppose.
But lets get real here.
Kudos don’t buy you anything.
The Hexham race was an easier race to read with less “place contenders” and a better each way race to bet in.
Overall I’ll bet many horses each way, but most will be in Novice/Maiden Hurdles, flat maidens and other low class non handicap affairs. I go through the cards each and every day sorting out the best each way races and the best each way value bets – You can get all my tips and analysis by joining my service at winningracingtips.co.uk. Where this strategy has been providing members with a constant flow of profits since 2006.
5.00 Southwell Polly Holder – win bet