Each Way Value Explained

Following on from yesterday I thought I'd continue the each way them today with a re-run of an article we published a year ago.

These each way words of wisdom were written for us by Paul Ruffy, who runs a profitable each way tipping service…

So what is an each way bet?

It’s a bet traditionally offered by UK bookmakers consisting of two parts: a win bet and a place bet.

For the win part to give a return the selection must win, for the place part to win the selection must either win or finish in one of the predetermined places, i.e. 2^nd or 3^rd.

Your stake for an each way bet will be the same on both parts, so if you bet “£5 each way”, you are betting £5 win and £5 to place – a total of £10.
That’s the simple stuff out of the way.

So let’s talk value.

To bet at value you essentially need to be placing bets at bigger odds than what the true chances dictate the odds should be.

Of course finding out what the true chances of something occurring isn’t an exact science.

Therefore it simply comes down to a matter of identifying “perceived value”.

With an each way bet we need to evaluate both the win odds AND the place odds to get an idea of how the prices stack up against our ideas of a value price.

Opportunities arise with each way betting because the place price offered against a horse is a fixed fraction (normally a fifth or a quarter) of its win price.

The win price is most likely a fair representation of its chances of winning.

But simply dividing it by 5 doesn't mean the place price is representative of it's chance of placing!

People have misconceptions that say that betting each way at odds under 5/1 represents a poor bet.

And often horses quoted around 25/1 are touted as great each way bets, on the basis that the place pays around 5/1.

I’d suggest to you that ANY price can represent each way value.

Whether its 10/1 or 10/11.

The calculation that most people do before placing an each way bet is to work out their returns should the horse only place.

So a horse placing at 4/1 (1/5 place odds) would give a return of £9 from a £5 each way bet – a loss of £1 overall.

To look at this potential loss in isolation is to look at each way betting from a narrow and blinkered angle.

One that is entirely wrong in my opinion.

Lets assume that the horse in question is actually a true 4/1 shot (therefore it’d win one in five on average).

Buts lets also assume that there is very little else other than the first three in the betting with any real form.

And therefore that it would place on average 80% of the time.

Finding 10 bets like this could easily give the following results from £5 each way bets:

4/1 unplaced -£10
4/1 3^rd -£1
4/1 2^nd -£1
4/1 Won +£24
4/1 2^nd -£1
4/1 2^nd -£1
4/1 unplaced -£10
4/1 3^rd -£1
4/1 2^nd -£1
4/1 Won +£24
Total P/L +£22

Remember this is a true 4/1 shot, so it would only ever be a break even situation betting win only. But because of the favourable place terms, we’ve turned a break even series of bets, into a winning one.

Of course finding horses that have about 80% chance of placing yet can be backed at 4/1 each way do not come up everyday, but they do come up more often than you might think.

Two obvious places you might find instances where the place odds make each way betting favourable are 8 or 9 runner races with an odds-on favourite and 16 runner handicaps.

The principle is the same whatever the race though.

It is comparing the each way place price against the actual chances that will reveal the true value of an each way bet.

There's a couple of races today that look like they might provide some each way value.

Catterick 12.40

This race has a 1/7 Favourite in Cockney Sparrow. She certainly looks a class above these but she was not fluent with her jumping last time out. The second favourite Miss Conduct looks a class above the remainder and she looks certain to place and value at 8/1 (Bet 365) each way.

Lingfield 1.25

This race has now had one withdrawn since I started writing and is down to 7 runners and so it no longer fits the profile.

Today's Selection

Catterick 12.40 Miss Conduct – each way bet – 8/1 Bet 365