Hi all,

Inside today’s main piece you can read my thoughts on the best of this action from Epsom that you can enjoy on ITV this afternoon.

Epsom Derby Festival

The Epsom Derby Festival gets underway this afternoon.  Not only do we have the third Classic of the season the Betfred Oaks (4:30) to look forward too. The undercard also has a cracking renewal of the Group 1 Coronation Cup (3.10) as the older horses race over the Derby trip.

In class terms today’s card is stronger than Saturday’s.  Given the Derby is being so early in the card I’m a bit surprised that, for one year, Epsom didn’t move the Coronation Cup to add more quality to the Saturday card.

ITV are covering five races from Epsom this afternoon and as a bonus all eight races on Saturday. The first two races including the Derby will be on the main channel with the remaining six races on ITV4.

2:00 – British EBF 40th Anniversary Woodcote Stakes (Conditions) (Class 2) – 6f

Richard Hannon won this is 2014 & 2016 and he saddles Haatem & The Camden Colt. The first named built on the promise of his racecourse debut third when winning at Bath (5 ½ f) 16 days ago. The slightly longer trip will suit the colt and looks capable of going close. Ryan Moore has been booked for The Camden Colt who looked useful juvenile when winning at Haydock 8 days ago.

2:35 – Racehorse Lotto Handicap (Class 2) – 1m ½ f

Rhoscolyn won the 7f handicap at this meeting in 2021 which remains the 5-year-old’s last win. Plenty of good performances in big handicaps, off higher marks, since and is on a good mark if bouncing back after a couple of low key runs this season.

Charlie Johnson saddles Austrian Theory & Dutch Decoy.  The former was back to his best when a 4 length 3rd of 11 to Boardman at Chester last Saturday. He’s 3lb below his last winning mark and if the same form after a quick turnaround shouldn’t be far away.  Dutch Decoy was back to something like his best when a 2 length 4th of 13 at Hamilton 19 -days ago. Cant afford to get too far behind like he did last time but is back down to his last winning mark and like his stablemate has to be in the mix.

Fantastic Fox produced his best RPR when a 2 ½ length 3^rd of 15 in this corresponding race 12 months. He’s 5lb lower this time around and Osin Murphy is a positive jockey booking for the 5-year-old. Stall 13 isn’t necessarily ideal but he’s high on my shortlist.

All The King’s Men, a winner at Lingfield in January, ran well when a 1 ½ lengths 3rd of 15 at Thirsk (7f) 13-days ago. Same mark here but probably needs today’s longer trip and the addition of the first time blinkers to eke out a bit more improvement. Trainer and Jockey combined to win last year’s race.

3:10 – Dahlbury Coronation Cup (Group 1) – 1m 4f

Just the five runners but a cracking renewal of the race and you couldn’t rule any of them out.

Westover was third in last year’s Derby before going onto win the Irish Derby. Shaped well enough on his return to action in the Sheema Classic at Meydan. Not sure how well he will settle in today’s small field but has the look of a horse who can do better as a 4-year-old.

Hurricane Lane, third in the 2021 Derby and that season’s Irish Derby/St Leger winner. He bounced back for a poor seasonal reappearance when winning the Group 2 Jockey Club Stakes at Newmarket last month. Better ground and the first time cheekpieces helped that day and he’s a big contender.

Emily Upjohn an unlucky runner-up in last season’s Oaks makes her seasonal reappearance. The filly ended last season with a Group 1 success in the Fillies & Mares Group 1 on Champions Day. Another capable of better this season and gets a handy 3lb from her four rivals.

Point Lonsdale, a useful juvenile made just one start as a 3-year-old when down the field in the 2,000 Guineas. The 4-year-old has looked better than ever when winning both this season’s starts. Raced lazily at Chester last time but the step up to 1m 4f should help and should no one go on seems the most likely pace angle.

German Challenger Tunnes may be the outsider of the five but on Official Ratings (ORs) he’s most definitely not. He made all to win a German Group 1 last November before losing any chance he had at the start in the Japan Cup. Better for his recent seasonal return.  Likely to lead and if he’s effective on much quicker ground can’t be ruled out for a trainer who won this in 2002.

3:45 – Betfred Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2f

A competitive 11 runner handicap. The five on my shortlist are Marhaha The Champ. Savvy Victory, Majestic, Honiton, and Dual Identity.

Honiton a winner on quick ground at Sandown last summer, appreciated the rturn to better ground when beating five rivals at Newmarket two weeks ago. Up 4lb for that success but unexposed jin handicap company and could be capable of better.

Marhaha The Champ was another to appreciate the return to a sound surface when winning at York 14 days ago. Only up 2lb for that success and should go close in the first time tongue tie. Majestic came from further back in that York race to finish a 1 length 4^th. Last season’s Cambridgeshire winner

Savvy Victory was a steady improver in the second half of last season winning at Goodwood in August and finishing a 4 length 5^th of 28 to Majestic in the Cambridgeshire. The 4-year-old improved again when a 1 length 2^nd of 9 at Chester last time. Nudged up 2lb for his latest effort but in the mix with Ryan Moore keeping the ride.

Dual Identity was an improving handicapper at this sort of trip last season finishing a 1 ¼ length 3^rd of 28 to Majestic in the Cambridgeshire, doing best of those who raced far side that day. The 4-year-old finished 2 ½ length behind Honiton last time but today’s bigger field and better pace will suit and he’s a winnable mark.

4:30 – Betfred Oaks (Group 1) – 1m 4f

I previewed the Oaks in yesterday’s column. So, no need to over old ground today. I think Savethelastdance will win and could be a special filly.  Soul Sister might need quicker ground and her stamina for 1m 4f is a worry. Stablemate Running Lion will be fine on the ground but again stamina is a concern. If you’re looking for one at bigger odds, you could do worse to consider Heartache Tonight who is open to plenty of improvement for the step to the Oaks distance.

Friday Selection:

Knowing when not to have a bet is the key to profitable betting. I liked Nigwa at Ripon yesterday but there was no chance I would put the filly up as a bet at 11/4. If they win you just take it on the chin and move on. She didn’t win so it was a case of £20 saved for me.

Onto Friday’s selection. I have a fair number of fancies on the Epsom card mostly in the handicap races. Looking at the rest of the card in the opening race I like the Richard Hannon pair of Haatem & The Camden Colt.

I think it will take a good filly to beat Savethelastdance in the Oaks, but I can see Heartache Tonight getting into the frame.

It’s a cracking renewal of the Coronation Cup indeed one of the best in recent years. You can make a case for all five of them but I’m going for the outsider of the five Tunnes. There was 16/1 available about him a few days ago but punters have woken up to the fact that he was well overpriced at those odds.  He’s now a best priced 7/1 which is less appealing, but he remains Friday’s selection.

Epsom

3:10 – Tunnes – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.

Good luck with your Friday bets.

Cheers

John