Epsom Oaks Winner

Hi all,

In today’s main piece, I’m looking ahead to next week’s Oaks at Epsom, along with a quick dive into the best of Friday’s action.

Thursday’s column focused on the Derby. Today, my attention shifts to the Oaks, which is just a week away.

The Tattersalls Irish Guineas Festival kicks off its three-day meeting with highlights being two Premier Handicaps: The QuinnBet Emerald Mile Handicap (7:20) and the Irish Stallion Farms EBF Habitat Handicap (7:50).

Across the Irish Sea, Goodwood’s feature race is the Listed Festival Stakes (3:35). Meanwhile, Haydock begins a two-day meet with the Listed Cecil Frail Stakes (4:20) headlining a seven-race card.

Epsom Oaks Preview

I mentioned yesterday that I think we’re looking at a weak renewal of the Derby. Well, the same sentiment applies to this year’s Oaks.

I’ll be surprised if this year’s Epsom Oaks winner comes from the recognized Oaks Trials at Chester, York, or Lingfield. All three races produced winners who might sneak into the money, but even in a moderate year, it’s hard to see them winning a Classic.

The outcomes of the Oaks Trials have seen 1000 Guineas fifth-place finisher Ylang Ylang tighten her grip at the head of the Oaks betting. Ylang Ylang was doing her best work at the finish in the 1000 Guineas, which was the best Oaks Trial we’ve seen. You can see why she’s a best-priced 9/4 favourite.

Ylang Ylang’s stablemate Rubies Are Red (4/1) was a strong finishing runner-up in the Lingfield Oaks Trial.  That was an eyecatching performance, but I don’t think she handled Lingfield undulations which is a concern for Epsom.

Ezeliya Epsom Oaks Winner

Unlucky 1000 Guineas fourth Tamfana is a big looking 20/1 with bet365, only 8s with William Hill. However, she’ll surely be heading across the Channel for the French Oaks. If she was diverted to Epsom I would be interested.

That leaves my idea of this year’s Oaks winner Ezeliya, trained by Dermot Weld. Let’s get the negative out of the way first. Ezeliya is by Dubawi who 0 winners from 15 runners, 2 placed with his progeny in the Epsom Derby & Oaks although he did sire Postponed who won the Coronation Cup over C&D in 2016. On the plus side Ezeliya dam, stayed 1m 4f, placed in the Irish Oaks and her half-sister also won over the distance.  

Ezeliya has just had the three career starts and made a winning seasonal return in the Group 3 Salsabil Stakes (1m 4f) at Navan last month. That was a much-improved effort and she shaped like she could be a Group 1 level filly over 1m 4f.  At Navan she looked like a well-balanced filly who shouldn’t be fazed by the Epsom undulations.  Dermot Weld last tasted success in the Oaks in 1981 and I think 43 years later he can do so again.

Prior to the recent Oaks Trials Ezeliya was still double figure odds and frustratingly I failed to take advantage. Now a best priced 9/2 with bet365 & Paddy Power she rates my idea of the Epsom Oaks winner.

Epsom Oaks Verdict:

Ylang Ylang is the right favourite on form. However, Ezeliya is open to further improvement at 1m 4f and my idea of the Epsom Oaks winner. Tamfana would look good value at 20/1 but she’s surely heading elsewhere.

Friday Racing

Haydock

Haydock’s new Clerk Of The Course couldn’t resist getting the watering can out of storage as he sneaked on 5mm of water on the track on Tuesday. This despite one forecast talking of 40mm of the wet stuff.  The rain did arrive, and the going has moved to soft. Hopefully the worst of the weather has passed because if it hasn’t then it wouldn’t take too much more for inspections to be required. Given that Haydock has traditionally been a track that doesn’t take its rain well it was a ridiculous decision to water.

4:20 – Azure Blue makes a quick return to action after her 7^th of 14 in a Group 2 at York last week.  This is a significant class drop for the mare and she should win this comfortably with her trainer among the winners. The only niggle would be soft ground otherwise evens would be a good price.

Goodwood

Source: Racing Post

The Listed William Hill Festival Stakes looks a right old muddle with three of the five runners having been declared for last evening’s Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown. It’s a race I can happily swerve.

Thirty-five minutes earlier the British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies' Handicap (3:00) looks far more interesting from a betting perspective.  

3:00 Race Preview

Ya Hafhd won a Southwell novice in November and showed improvement on his seasonal return and handicap debut, finishing a length 2nd of 7 at Doncaster 28 days ago. He handled soft ground well last time and could progress further with the step up to 1m 4f.

Juana Ines, a winner last summer when trained in France, showed promise on her sole start for the yard, finishing 3rd of 8 at Ascot last October. She’s capable of better on her handicap and seasonal debut for a yard currently in good form.

No Niki No, an Irish challenger, ran well on her seasonal return at Sligo 19 days ago. She could get into the places but might be vulnerable to less exposed fillies in the lineup.

True Wisdom beat Bellum Justum at Newmarket last August and bounced back from a poor run on her final juvenile start, finishing 1 ¾ lengths 2nd of 6 at Kempton last month. The step up in trip (1m 3f) suited her last time, and she’s a contender here.

Mallavelly has placed in a couple of competitive Newmarket maidens this season. She didn’t stay on strongly over 1m 2f last time, raising some stamina doubts for 1m 4f, but she’s respected on her handicap debut.

Friday Selection:

I have several fancies on this evening’s Curragh card which will be available for Victor Value subscribers. So, if you want them plus by Epsom Derby Festival picks you can get them here.  Use coupon code VICTOR30 at checkout and you’ll also get a 30% discount.

My pick for Friday's likely winner at Haydock is Azure Blue. Even at slightly odds-on, she offers value given her superiority over her rivals. However, she has never raced on soft ground.

Irish challenger No Niki No has each-way claims at big odds in the Goodwood Fillies Handicap (3:00). However, from a win perspective, I’m going with True Wisdom, whose yard won this race last year.

Goodwood

3:00 – True Wisdom – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.

Good luck with your Friday bets.

John