Good morning all,
Today’s racing isn’t the most inspiring, so as I don’t do write-ups on a Sunday I thought I’d give you my main four selections for the weekend at Longchamp, where, of course, the Arc takes centre stage on Sunday.
The weather is going to turn nasty, with an absolute deluge due in Paris on Sunday morning (take your pick of the forecasts, anything from 20mm-40mm) and it’s going to be “tres souple” for them Sunday afternoon.
3.05 – Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe
Godolphin clearly have a strong hand for the big one, with Derby winner Adayar and St Leger winner Hurricane Lane in the line up. Both have shown themselves to be high-class 3yos this year and it’s great both have made it to the big one without mishap, as so often seems to be the case. Adayar probably has the better speed, but if we’re looking at heavy ground I do wonder if he’ll be able to produce his best on it, and Hurricane Lane’s added stamina might well come into play. He looked very impressive when thrashing Wordsworth and the rest here in July, coming right away for a 6½l win, and he’d be my pick of the pair.
Snowfall has shown herself to be adaptable under ground conditions and it’s hard to shake that vision of her winning the Oaks by a huge margin in soft ground. At the time that did look something of a fluke but she ran to the same level when winning the Yorkshire Oaks, and that on quicker ground too. The worry with her is her defeat last time out, when she found Teona too good for her in the Prix Vermeille, and she does now need to bounce back.
I’ve got ground concerns for both the Japanese pair, Deep Bond and Chrono Genesis, although their presence may well ensure others go off overpriced on the PMU, if you can get a bet on (I believe you can via BET365). Love is another that might not want the ground and as high-class as she is, might find conditions against her.
The admirable Tarnawa won’t mind what the ground is, and she lost little in defeat to St Marks Basilica in the Irish Champion, a race that didn’t pan out for her at all. Going back up in trip here can only be a plus, and it’s worth remembering her game Prix De L’Opera win last year was gained in heavy ground. She won’t be far away.
With the extra places likely to be on offer, it’s not hard to argue an each-way case for Mojo Star. He’s seen the back end of the Godolphin pair this year, firstly Adayar in the Derby and the Hurricane Lane in the Leger but wasn’t far behind Hurricane Lane last time, staying on, and if we’re saying Hurricane Lane is a 5s chance then I can’t see how Mojo Star is ten times the price. He handled heavy ground fine on his debut at Newbury last year and might even improve a touch for encountering it again, so 10-1 and bigger that he’s in the first five looks wrong.
4.25 Longchamp – Prix De L’ Abbaye
Suesa is the one to beat on paper, and yes you can say the ground was too quick for her at York, but all the same I can’t see a lot between her and Glass Slippers, who warmed up in great fashion in the Flying Five at The Curragh, finishing a close third on her first start since June. She’s got ground to make up on Suesa on their Goodwood King George form but Suesa came into that match fit, whereas it was Glass Slippers first run since the previous November.
I really don’t think there’s anything between them, and given Glass Slippers will now be fully wound up, and this is very much her race (indeed, her track) the 4-1 looks a more than reasonable investment.
If it really carted it down and it was barely raceable, Lady in France might be worth a second look at a huge price. She needs it very soft to show her best these days, and her fourth in this last year reads well. She too will come on for her recent outing, her first since July, and could hit the frame.
Others over the weekend –
Princess Zoe – Prix Du Cadran
This is a harder race than the one Princess Zoe won last year, but she’s proven under conditions (whereas this will be as far as Trueshan has gone – I think he’ll stay, but you can’t guarantee that) and this tough, genuine mare warmed up for this with a super run in the Irish St Leger Trial at the Curragh, staying on all the way to the line.
Glenartney – Prix du Royallieu
Twice taken out recently because the ground has been too quick for her, she’s just the sort to appreciate this step up in trip with some cut and I think you’ll see a huge step forward from her here. Gives the impression she's a thorough stayer and she’ll be a working man’s price too.
Today's selection comes from Hexham, where I can see On We Go running a good race in their finale at 4.40. She gave the impression there was some ability on more than one occasion earlier in the year, and a little handicap like this might be within her reach. After a wind operation, she came out to finish third over C&D last time and you can see her running on very stoutly in the closing stages after realising that it wasn't hurting her to breathe. Staying is clearly her game, and with many of the firms offering four places on the race, she looks good each-way material.
Good luck with all your bets today,