Morning all,

The Randox sponsored Grand National is one the world’s most famous horse races. However, what made it such an iconic race is long gone and never to return. Today’s race arguably assembles a better-quality field and remains an exciting big field 4m 2f handicap chase.

I’m sure you remember the excitement and of course trepidation seeing the runners jumping the old Becher’s Brook.  Nearly 30-years ago I had the chance to walk the course and seeing the size of the fences up so close gave me knots in my stomach. Yes. It used to be that sort of race. It’s what made it so iconic.

In today’s day and age, it had become an unacceptable risk though. The changes made to the fences were imho, the correct ones. However, there is still part of me that yearns for the old Grand National and those fearsome fences.

There are two features that still make the unique. You don’t see forty runner horse races and despite the modification to the fences. They still provide a challenge to both horse and jockey that other racecourses don’t.

If you can’t stand the Grand National you won’t like today’s offering as its devoted to the race.   

Aintree Grand National Festival

The Grand National Festival gets underway on Thursday. Looking at the last five Aintree Grand National Festivals 67% of the winners were to be found in the top four in the betting forecast from 29% of the total runners. That’s something to keep in mind when looking for selections over the three days.

There remains some uncertainty as to the weather later in the week.  Some forecasters are predicting up to 15mm of rain between now and Saturday lunchtime. For punters and the Clerk of the Course its going to be a bit of headache. Will it be naturally watered good to soft ground on Saturday? Or will they need to artificially water the ground to maintain good to soft, good in places going?  Please let the rain arrive to ensure the former rather than the latter.

Randox Grand National

It’s that dreaded time of the year when people ask me who will win the Grand National. Because they know you are involved in the sport as pundit. They seem to think you’re going to provide them with that big priced winner that they can tell people about. How do you explain to them that you will probably end up backing four or five in the race?  It’s that sort of race, isn’t it?  Well, it is and it isn’t.

When you have 40 runners there’s always a chance that there will be a big priced winner of the race.  Auroras Encore (66/1,) in 2013, says hi! However, looking at the last five renewals of the race. Four of the last five winners where in the first four in betting forecast.

Trends

If you’re looking to whittle the field down to a manageable number of contenders? Here are some very recent trends that may help.

The last five winners were aged 8yo to 9yo.

5/5 winners had run in a Grade 1 race.

5/5 winners had 10+ starts over fences. Since 2008 horses with less than ten runs over fences are 0 winners from 92 runners 7 placed. If you go even further back to 1997, its 2 winners from 229 runners 17 placed. The last horse to win having had nine or less starts over the larger obstacles was Earth Summit in 1998.

4/5 had won a race in their last three starts.

Whilst I have had a fair amount of success in the race in the past decade. It’s a race I see as a bit of fun rather than being anything more serious.

The five-day confirmation stage for the National are out and 73 horses remain in the race. Connections of horses numbered 41 to 44, including the well fancied Éclair Surf (43), face an anxious couple of days to see if their horse’s sneak into the 40 strong field.

My shortlist for the race stands at 14. Yes, fourteen.  I don’t have the time to go through all of them here.  However, below are a few of them.

Market Leaders

Snow Leopardess, Delta Work and last year’s third Any Second Now are vying for favouritism. The first named will be popular with the once-a-year punters. She’s a grey, a mare and a mum to boot. The race usually produces a feel-good story winner and Snow Leopardess ticks plenty of those boxes

Delta Work bounced back to winning form when winning the Cross Country at Cheltenham last time and looks well treated now.

All three of them are on my fourteen strong shortlist but I’m not sure whether I will be backing any of them. If I do it will most likely be the mare.

Last year’s winner Minella Times is 15lb higher this time around. It would be some performance if he can win again off his new mark. I don't think he can.

Will Éclair surf home?

Éclair Surf really got his jumping together to win the Classic Chase at Warwick two starts back. He’s since gone onto finish runner-up to Scottish Grand National Winner Win My Wings in the Eider Chase. The 8-year-old has only had a NINE starts over the larger obstacles.

Besides Éclair Surf trainer Emma Lavelle also seems likely to run De Rasher Counter. The 10-year-old has only had four starts since winning the 2019 Ladbroke Trophy. He ran a satisfactory prep for this when fourth in the Denman Chase at Newbury after a 489-day layoff.] last time. Can race off the same mark as when winning the Ladbroke.

Fiddlerontheroof finished runner-up in this season’s Ladbroke Trophy. He’s since gone onto finish runner-up at Ascot. The Labdroke Trophy form hasn’t really worked out so far but he ticks plenty of boxes and must be high on the shortlist.

Kildisart shaped as if he has retained plenty of ability when a never nearer 22 ½ length 4^th of 10 at Newbury, over an inadequate 2m 6 ½ f, last month. He’s another unexposed over long distances and looks nicely treated on the best of his back form.

Longhouse Poet an impressive winner of the valuable Thyestes Handicap Chase at Gowran Park two starts back. Unexposed as a stayer and has a touch of class. I was hoping that the 8-year-old would go for the Irish National. However, it looks like he will be coming here instead. He’s only had six starts over fences but trainer Martin Brassil won the race in 2006 so knows the type of horse required to win. The softer the ground the better his chance.

Previous form in a Scottish or an Irish Grand National is useful.

Dingo Dollar was a ¾ length 2^nd of 22 in last season’s Scottish Grand National, off his present mark. No real form this season but has ben brought along with this race in mind. He looks overpriced on his best form but probably needs good ground to be seen at his best and didn’t seem to take to the fences when running in the Grand Sefton for his previous trainer.

Enjoy D'allen will be racing for the first time in the silks of J P McManus. A 4 ½ length 3^rd of 28 in last year’s Irish Grand National. He’s clearly well suited to a big field as he showed this season when a 3-length 3^rd of 28 in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase over Christmas. Another to tick plenty of boxes and he’s unexposed over marathon trips.

Verdict: My approach to this year’s race is a simple one. I will be looking to back a couple at the front of the betting and supplement them with a one or two at bigger odds. Those that appeal at big odds at this stage are: De Rasher Counter, Dingo Dollar and Kildisart.

Wednesday Racing

Soft ground means classy Stayer Trueshan is set make his seasonal return at Nottingham in the Listed Barry Hills Further Flight Stakes (4.00). Over at Leopardstown At Leopardstown, the Listed Gradguide Heritage Stakes (4.15) Is the highlight of n eight race card. Catterick and Lingfield (AW) also race this afternoon with Kempton completing the Wednesday action with an eight race all-weather evening card.

Nottingham

4:30 – There was ¾ length between Darkness and Fame And Acclaim when both were down the field in the Lincoln Handicap. The former was having his first start since arriving from France but ran flat at Doncaster. He looked fit enough the last day and the reapplication of cheekpieces, he won in first time in France, need to revive. Yard look to be hitting form.

Fame And Acclaim has yet to win for his trainer since switching from the Joseph O’Brien yard last summer. A wide draw and hold up tactics didn’t help him at Doncaster. This is the 5-year-old’s second run since a wind-op and he may have needed his seasonal reappearance. Nicely treated on his best form when he bounces back to form and the 10/1 available with Bet365 is worth taking.

Selection: Fame And Acclaim.

Good luck with your Wednesday bets.

John