Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I’m looking at the best of Saturday’s action including the Irish 2000 Guineas.
Curragh
A bumper ten races for punters to enjoy on ITV this afternoon. There are two Group 2 races at Haydock and it’s also the Irish 2000 Guineas Day at the Curragh. Add in some competitive big field handicaps and we have the makings of cracking day of sport.
The Tattersalls Irish 2,000 Guineas (3:40) is Saturday’s most valuable race. It’s good to firm at the Curragh but there could be some rain about on Saturday.
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Eight have been declared for the Irish 2000 Guineas. The ground has come right for 2000 Guineas runner-up Rosallion. At evens he looks a fair price and is the one to beat. Aidan O’Brien runs three in River Tiber, Unquestionable and Mountain Bear with the trio all making their seasonal returns. River Tiber is the pick of Ryan Moore but I’m not sure he’ll stay 1m and he prefers a bit more ease in the ground.
Unquestionable & Mountain Bear were first and second in the Breeders' Cup Turf at Santa Anita. Unquestionable finished a length runner-up to Rosallion prior to winning at the Breeders Cup and the ground is right for him. I prefer him to River Tiber, and he should be thereabouts. Mountain Bear looks held by Unquestionable on their last time running but he made his effort out wide that day and would have finished closer if had been as well positioned as his stablemate. You can make an each-way case for him.
Irish 2000 Guineas Verdict:
Rosallion is the one to beat on his 2000 Guineas form. Unquestionable looks the best of the Aidan O’Brien runners but Mountain Bear can get into the places at big odds.
In the Group 2 Greenlands Stakes (2.30) I really fancied last year’s winner Art Power to make 4 from 4 over C&D. That was when I thought there was going to be softer ground which it might not be unless the rain arrives. On quicker ground I would be interested in Regional who has swerved the Temple Stakes at Haydock on account of soft going. He won the Group 1 Betfair Sprint Cup Stakes on his final start last season and if he’s ready to roll on return to action won’t be far away. However, unlike Art Power, his connections will be hoping the rain stays away.
Haydock
Five Haydock races live on ITV and fingers crossed the ground shouldn’t be heavy although it’s likely to be soft.
1:50 – Betfred Temple Stakes (Group 2) – 5f
I covered the race in Wednesday’s column, so I won’t look at the race in too much detail here. As expected, the change in the going has seen Vadream supported in the ante post market. She needs soft or heavy ground and looks a worthy favourite. I think Rogue Lightning is a sprinter going places and I think he will win the Group 1 King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot. The only thing that’s stopping me putting him up as a confident selection is soft ground as I think he needs good or even quicker ground.
Live In The Dream’s speed will be blunted by soft ground and I don’t think he’ll be fully primed for Saturday. I’m not sure soft ground is what the Australian mare Asfoora really wants, and her target is also Royal Ascot. At an each-way price recent Musselburgh score Equality could go well. The 6-year-old has got race fitness on his side and although he’s yet to win on soft ground he’s effective on good to soft.
2:25 – Betfred Supports Jack Berry House Sandy Lane Stakes (Group 2) – 6f
Top juvenile sprinter Vandeek makes his much-anticipated seasonal return. The Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot is his target, but bookmakers think he can make a winning return to action. He handled soft ground when winning the Richmond Stakes at Goodwood and the Group 1 Prix Morny at Deauville. He’s the one to beat for sure but his yard isn’t exactly banging in the winners.
If the odds-on favourite isn’t fully tuned up the one who could take advantage is Inisherin. It’s interesting to see the colt dropped back to 6f having finished a good 6th in the 2000 Guineas last time. He just lacked a bit of experience at Newmarket and I think he can prove up to this class this season. My only concern would be soft ground for the son of Shamardal.
Goodwood
2:05 – William Hill Height Of Fashion Stakes (Listed Race) – 1m 2f
Ten 3-year-old fillies have been declared for what used to be an Oaks Trial. However, given its positioning just six days before Oaks it clearly isn’t this year.
Francophone has improved on both this season’s starts, winning at Southwell (1m) last month before finishing runner-up in the Musidora at York last week. It’s a quick turnaround for the filly but she’s got a good chance here and she’s the one to beat. Regal Jubilee runner-up in the Fred Darling on her seasonal return went backwards when 11th of 16 in the 1000 Guineas. This sort of trip should suit her but she does need to bounce back. Given the number of good 3-year-old fillies Ralph Beckett has got you couldn’t rule out a big run from Where I Wanna Be. A winner of a heavy ground maiden at Nottingham last season, she’s open to further improvement as a 3-year-old.
York
3:20 – William Hill Bronte Cup Fillies' Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 6f
A competitive field of ten fillies and mares' lines up for this intriguing contest. Last year’s winner, River of Stars, returns for another crack at this race, having won it on her seasonal debut 12 months ago, and looks well-primed for a repeat performance.
Jessica Harrington's Trevaunance, based on her best form from last season, should be competitive. Another Irish challenger, Term Of Endearment, is not to be overlooked, especially with Rachel Blackmore taking a rare ride at York. While her stamina over 1m 6f is untested, if she settles well, she's a contender. She also won first time out in 2022, so her 217-day layoff isn't a major concern. Safety Catch, who won a maiden at Pontefract last autumn and then a Listed race at Lingfield over 1m 5f, should continue to improve. This lightly raced 4-year-old looks set to be River of Stars’ main rival.
I don’t have the time to look at today’s handicaps here. So if you want my picks for those races, as well as the Epsom Derby Festival and Royal Ascot, you can get them here. Use coupon code VICTOR30 at checkout for a 30% discount.
Saturday Selection:
York
3:20 – Safety Catch – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
Today's selection doesn't come from the Irish 2000 Guineas
Good luck with your Saturday bets.
John