Hi all,

Indise today's main piece you can read my thoughts on this evening's Kempton card.

Longtime readers will remember my call for the flat season to commence with a bang rather than a whimper. Unfortunately, we lost Musselburgh’s Saturday card due to wet weather, leaving us without a major turf meeting for the next two Saturdays. In fact, the next significant flat fixture isn't until Tuesday, April 16^th at Newmarket’s Craven Meeting, which is far from ideal.

As I’ve previously suggested, having the Lincoln Handicap on the Saturday before the Craven Meeting could inject much-needed energy into the season's start. It's encouraging to see trainer Karl Burke sharing this viewpoint in this Racing Post piece.

Here's a breakdown of his key points.

Burke criticizes the early start of the turf campaign, suggesting that the Lincoln Handicap is run on the Saturday before the Craven Meeting.

Dispensing with Easter Weekend as Anchor: He proposes dispensing with Easter weekend as the fixed point around which the early weeks of the turf season are organized. Instead, he suggests starting the season regardless of Easter's position on the calendar.

Burke argues that starting the turf season later would have several benefits, including potentially better weather conditions and ground quality, as well as ensuring the participation of top riders who might be engaged in international races at the current start time.

Overall, Burke's proposals aim to enhance the excitement and significance of the start of the turf Flat racing season by reorganizing its timing and structure to better align with other racing events and to potentially improve the quality of racing conditions.

It’s a start and hopefully others will chime in to make these much-needed changes to the flat season.

Looking Ahead To The Weekend – Part 1

The ITV cameras make a quick return to Kempton for a competitive all-weather card on Saturday.

While the Listed Virgin Bet Snowdrop Fillies' Stakes (2:05) stands out as the quality race, the most lucrative event is the Rosebery Handicap (2:50), offering £51,540 to the winner. That handicap, along with the Queen's Prize Handicap (3:15) that follows, harken back to past times, having been part of the Easter turf fixture at Kempton.

Additionally, ITV are covering four races from Kelso's Premier Racing card. The highlight at Kelso is the Herring Queen Series Final Mares' Novices' Handicap Hurdle (3:35), boasting £100,000 in guaranteed prize money. The undercard features two finals of the Go North Race Series.

Weather permitting, there’s plenty of racing on Sunday.

At Leopardstown, it's Classic Trials Day, featuring trials for the 2,000 and 1,000 Guineas. Poetic Flare won the 2,000 Guineas Trial in 2021 before securing victory in the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket. Similarly, Homeless Songs claimed the 1,000 Guineas Trial in 2022 before triumphing in the Irish 1,000 Guineas. Additionally, the card includes the Group 3 Ballysax Stakes, a race previously won by Harzand in 2016, who later went on to win the Derby at Epsom.

Meanwhile, Carlisle hosts the best of the jumps action on Sunday, featuring three finals of the Go North Race Series.

Kempton: Roseberry Handicap

Here are some trends for Kempton’s most valuable race the Rosebery Handicap. These trends contain – 15 winners from 200 bets, 48 places. You can use these trends to shortlist contenders.

Age: 4-year-olds are 10 winners from 84 bets, 27 places.

Odds SP: Runners returned 9/1 & under are 11 winners from 68 runners +1.5, 30 places.

Draw:

Winners from low to high but it’s worth noting that those drawn in double digits are 3 winners from 67 bets – 35.5, 12 places with the A/E=0.67.

Eight of the 15 winners were between 6lb & 11lb below the top weight – 8 winners from 71 bets, +1.5, 18 places.

Eight of the last 15 winners were unraced at Kempton – 8 winners from 62 bets +13, 19 places.  With the A/E=1.34.

All 15 renewals have been won by different trainers. William Haggas saddled the winner in 2021 and could run Laafi in this year’s race.

Typically, on a Wednesday, I'd be previewing Saturday's major handicap race. However, this week, none of the races particularly caught my eye in that respect. Instead, tomorrow, I'll be sharing a couple of horses that I have high hopes for in their respective races at Kempton and Kelso on Saturday.

This new offering will be exclusively available for Victor Value subscribers until the end of the flat season. It's an exciting opportunity to provide specialized content and insights to our dedicated subscribers.

Wednesday Preview

We’ve lost Nottingham’s flat card to waterlogging. That leaves just Catterick’s flat meeting which is subject to an 8am inspection and an evening all-weather fixture at Kempton.

Kempton

The race of the day is Kempton’s 7-furlong handicap (7:00). The Class 3 contest features nine runners.

Hickory, a C&D winner, ran well when a close-up 3^rd of 25 in a much better handicap at Ascot last July. A reproduction of that performance would see him go close but this is the 6-year-old’s seasonal return, and the visor is left off. He’ll need a good gallop to chase and given his Ascot 7f form this could be a prep for the Victoria Cup.

Revolutionise, boasting three victories at this course, has displayed consistent form on the all-weather this winter, most recently securing a narrow 2nd place finish at Wolverhampton. With no change in mark, he’s got solid claims despite a less favourable draw in stall 9.

Kiwano, a dual course winner including a C&D triumph on debut, rediscovered winning form in Bahrain (6f) 47 days ago. Despite primarily racing over shorter distances, his fitness and success at Kempton suggest he shouldn't be discounted, especially if he can maintain his competitiveness over today’s longer distance.

King Cabo, a winner of a Class 4 handicap over C&D in September, has seen disappointing performances in his last two outings, both over 6f. However, returning to 7f will suit him better, offering each-way potential if bouncing back to his best.

Best of the rest

7:30 – White Mist, showcasing strong form this winter with two wins at Wolverhampton and a C&D victory two starts back, faces tougher competition here. Nonetheless, with her consistent performances, she’s got solid claims. Bella Kopella, previously victorious at Newcastle in the autumn, displayed exceptional form upon returning from a four-month break with a win 19 days ago. Despite a 7lb rise, she remains a formidable contender, especially if she maintains her peak form away from the tapeta.

8:00 – Although I typically steer clear of 3-year-old-only handicaps this early in the season, Himawari caught my attention in this 6f contest. The filly was making headway when stumbling two furlongs out on handicap debut over C&D last time and did well to rally into 4th. With the potential for improvement and a handy low draw, she's one to keep an eye on.

Good luck with your Wednesday bets.

John