Hi all,

Inside today’s main piece I’m looking back at Saturday’s action at Kempton.

Racing's Weather Dilemma

With both Kelso and the Curragh succumbing to the wet weather, Saturday's racing seemed to dip in quality, resembling something akin to Monday-grade racing—a potential new low for the sport, already facing its fair share of challenges. However, amidst the disappointment, there was a silver lining found in the competitive all-weather Kempton card and the reliability of synthetics tracks.

Relying on all-weather tracks may not be the ideal scenario, but it's certainly preferable to subjecting flat horses to bottomless ground conditions. Regardless of one's views on climate change—whether it's man-made or natural—it's undeniable that the climate is in a state of flux. As a result, we’ll find ourselves each spring losing more meetings to waterlogging.

One potential solution to mitigate this issue is to consider transitioning more grass tracks to surfaces like tapeta. Tapeta offers a more consistent and reliable racing surface. While such a transition may require significant investment and planning, it could ultimately ensure the continuation of high-quality racing throughout the year, regardless of weather conditions. It's a conversation worth having as we strive to adapt to the changing climate and safeguard the future of the sport.

Saturday Review

I was eager to review the weekend's flat action at the Curragh and Leopardstown today. Unfortunately, we lost the Curragh card, and Leopardstown's Classic Trials meeting on Sunday was run on heavy ground. As a result, I’ve found myself with only Kempton's racing to reflect on today. Despite the limited options, let's delve into the Kempton highlights.

Kempton

As Hugh Taylor highlighted in his Saturday attheraces column. “Most of the obvious ricks in the big handicaps on today’s Kempton card were wiped out in the overnight markets”.

As I mentioned in Thursday's column, the prime time to identify ricks in these major handicaps is midweek. One such rick was Circuit Breaker, who I recommended ante-post on Wednesday. Indeed, Circuit Breaker experienced significant overnight backing, shortening to as low as 4/1. Whilst I considered him to be overpriced at 12/1, the odds of 4/1 held little appeal to me. Sometimes, the movement in odds can alter the perceived value of a selection, and in this case, the shortened odds did not align with my assessment of his chances. Despite this, beating the starting price remains crucial for long-term profitability.

Cemhaan Victorious in Roseberry Handicap as Pace Plays Pivotal Role

The Roseberry Handicap unfolded at a slow pace, leaving much of the field to far out of their ground at halfway. With the leaders maintaining a modest tempo, it became apparent that being up with the pace was advantageous, as evidenced by the winner Cemhaan and the runner-up Killybegs Warrior who were always to the fore. It's worth noting that the winner, Cemhaan, likely benefited from having a fitness edge over the runner-up, which may have influenced the result.

Among those coming from behind, Intinso, a well-fancied contender, performed admirably, despite struggling to settle in the early stages. A decent finish secured him third place and showed he remains in form. He needs a bit further than 1m 3f.

Chillingham didn’t get the race run to suit and a slowly run 1m 3f is on the short side for him. He should come on for this but does need settle better if he’s to win a good pot this season.

Overall, the race proved an unsatisfactory one, marred by several poor rides, and highlighting the importance of pace dynamics in determining race outcomes.

Duty Of Care Claims Queens Prize

The importance of positioning near the pace was evident once again in the Queens Prize Handicap. Sweet Fantasy set a slow gallop with Duty Of Care in close pursuit. Sweet Fantasy was leading coming to the final furlong, but her stamina waned, and she eventually finished 6th. This allowed Duty Of Care to improve on his performance from 12 months ago with a comfortable victory. Credit must go to jockey Saffie Osborne for delivering the winning ride, which played a crucial role in the outcome. Although the runner-up, Sleeping Lion, finished well, he was too far behind to seriously challenge the winner. Ultimately, the race demonstrated the importance of tactical positioning and a well-executed ride in determining success.

My ante-post selection, Circuit Breaker, put in a commendable performance on his first start for Jonjo O'Neill. Despite sweating up badly before the race and needing more of a stamina test, he maintained a good position throughout. While he got outpaced three out, he rallied well to finish third. He’s a lightly raced 4-year-old and there are undoubtedly races to be won with him this flat season before switching to hurdling.

Top-weight Novel Legend, though disadvantaged by the slow pace of the two-mile race, showcased his potential by finishing nicely for fourth place. This run should bring him on and a tilt at next month’s Chester Cup seems likely.

Tritonic, finishing fifth, ran well over a trip that might have been a bit too short for him. Despite getting outpaced when the leaders quickened three furlongs out and displaying less than ideal head carriage, he remains a competitive contender in longer distance handicaps on the flat. His impressive third-place finish in the Ascot Stakes at Royal Ascot last year suggests he'll be targeted for that race once again.

Adelaise Triumphs Over Choisya in Nail-Biting Snowdrop Finish

Earlier on the Kempton card, Irish challenger Adelaise edged out Choisya in a thrilling finish to the Listed Snowdrop Stakes. Despite being towards the rear early and racing out wide in the straight, Choisya put in a good effort and can be considered slightly unlucky to lose by just a head.  The best ride won the race William Buick had his filly in the ideal position whereas young Harry Davies didn’t. It’s as simple as that. Harry Davies is a promising jockey who will get better but in a game of fine margins he lost out to one of the best jockey’s in flat racing. If you switched the jockey’s around Choisya wins.

Overall, it was a challenging weekend of punting, but fortunately, I didn't place too many bets, so the impact on the betting bank was minimal.

I had tipped Choisya at 9/2, and once again, beat the SP as she was returned the 5/2 favourite. However, beating SP without winning doesn’t add to the betting bank and I can’t buy a winner at present. Thankfully Aintree’s Grand National Festival starts on Thursday and that’s a meeting I have usually done well at.

Monday Preview

While the racing action may be low key leading up to Thursday, there's plenty to anticipate from Thursday onwards as the Aintree Grand National Festival kicks off. The first day's seven-race card promises excitement with four Grade 1 races, a Grade 2 Mares' Bumper, a valuable two-mile handicap chase, and a race over the National fences. As anticipation builds for the festival, racing enthusiasts can look forward to some top-quality racing action and thrilling contests at Aintree.

On to Monday’s action. There’s an interesting enough handicap hurdle at Wincanton this afternoon. The Annual Memberships On Sale April 22nd Handicap Hurdle (3:38) is the race of the day for me. I had fancied Dartmoor Pirate but he’s now a non-runner.  Handicap debutants Toss Of A Coin and Home Free head the early bird betting. Both handle heavy ground and look capable of more improvement. Of the pair I just prefer the claims of Home Free. Despite their obvious potential I’m going to take them on with Monviel who was back to form last time when a neck 2nd of 8 to Santos at Uttoxeter last month. He’s been nudged up 3lb for that Uttoxeter effort, but the yard has its horses in winning form, and he should get into the money. He’s an ideal 20/80 horse.

Monday Selection:

Wincanton

4:08 – Monviel – 5/1.

In Tuesday’s column I will look back at the Classic Trials on Sunday at Leopardstown and there’ll be some eyecatchers from Kempton.

Good luck with your Monday bets.

John