Hi all,

It was truly heartbreaking to learn of the passing of jockey Stefano Cherchi, just two weeks after suffering a fall while riding in Australia. This tragic incident serves as a stark reminder of the immense risks that jockeys face every time they mount a horse. It's a sobering reality that deserves recognition, especially when considering the abuse that jockeys sometimes endure, whether on social media or at the track.

In moments like these, when a young life is lost at the age of 23, it puts into perspective the triviality of my offering in today’s column.

Stefano’s death serves as a poignant reminder to cherish each moment and to extend compassion and respect to those who put their lives on the line for the sport we love.

It was truly heartbreaking to learn of the passing of jockey Stefano Cherchi, just two weeks after suffering a fall while riding in Australia. This tragic incident serves as a stark reminder of the immense risks that jockeys face every time they mount a horse. It's a sobering reality that deserves recognition, especially when considering the abuse that jockeys sometimes endure, whether on social media or at the track.

In moments like these, when a young life is lost at the age of 23, it puts into perspective the triviality of my offering in today’s column.

Stefano’s death serves as a poignant reminder to cherish each moment and to extend compassion and respect to those who put their lives on the line for the sport we love.

Uncover Early Value: Introducing Exclusive Ante Post Service for Victor Value Subscribers!

Recently, I've been frustrated to see my potential Saturday selections being slashed by bookmakers after final declarations, and even worse, seeing them touted by big-name tipsters, resulting in further reductions in odds.

I'm thrilled to announce the launch of a new complimentary service exclusively for Victor Value subscribers. Every Tuesday or Wednesday, I'll be delving into the early value for the weekend's major races. That's an in addtion to my big race previews and selections.

I want to emphasize that this isn't a get-rich-quick scheme; rather, it's a long-term strategy aimed at yielding dividends by the conclusion of the flat season. Success in ante post betting requires patience, careful analysis, and a strategic outlook. You must be committed for the long haul to truly reap the rewards.

Dive into Ante Post Betting: Risks, Rewards, and Strategies Unveiled

Ante post betting certainly has its own set of risks and rewards, and I understand it's not for everyone. However, there are key points worth considering:

When it comes to potential value, ante post betting often offers higher odds compared to betting closer to the race. If you have a strong prediction well in advance, you're likely to secure better value by placing your bets early, before final declarations.

On the flip side, there are significant risks involved with this type of betting. One major pitfall is the possibility of circumstances changing before the event occurs. Your chosen participant could suffer an injury or might not even be declared for the race, leading to a losing bet.

Furthermore, ante post betting requires making predictions based on limited information. While this can yield profitable outcomes if your predictions are accurate, it also increases the risk of making misguided decisions due to insufficient data, such as uncertain ground conditions.

Despite these risks, I firmly believe that the potential value obtained through ante post betting outweighs the drawbacks. In fact, I would argue that it's only before final declarations that you can truly uncover real value in today's betting landscape.

That's why I'm dipping my toes into the water this flat season. It's an opportunity to test the waters and potentially reap the rewards that ante post betting can offer.

As we navigate through the season, we're likely to encounter a mix of ups and downs. But with careful strategy and analysis, I'm confident that we can finish ahead. I'm looking forward to the journey, and I hope you'll join me in making it a successful and enjoyable flat season!

If you won’t to add a little bit of excitement to your betting you can join me here.

Exclusive Ante Post Picks Unveiled for Victor Value Subscribers

My first two ante post selections were dispatched to Victor Value subscribers on Wednesday morning. In this inaugural week, I'm happy to extend these picks to the readers of this column. Originally, I had planned to share three selections, but as I was preparing my write-up, the odds for my Kelso fancy were significantly slashed. Consequently, I couldn't endorse him as an ante post selection.

Without further ado here are my first picks.

Saturday: Kempton

3:15 – Virgin Bet Queen's Prize Handicap (London Stayers' Series Qualifier) (Class 2) – 2m

Novel Legend won last year’s race, from 17lb lower and he’s now 3lb above his last winning mark. Whilst I won’t say he can’t win this off top weight of 10-0 at 7/2 I think he’s worth taking on.  Here’s the two I like most at the prices.

Circuit Breaker

Circuit Breaker won a C&D handicap last September for previous trainer Ralph Beckett. Two from five for his former yard, if he runs in Saturday he’ll be having his first start for Jonjo O’Neill. An expensive purchase (260,000 Gns) at the Tattersalls Autumn Sales. He was presumably brought to go hurdling but we haven’t seen the son of Nathaniel in that sphere. Lightly raced he looked a progressive staying handicapper when last seen in action. A mark of 89 looks very workable and it’s interesting to see that James Doyle has already been booked for the ride. A best priced 12/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes look ok to me.

Geremia

The Jim Goldie trained Geremia is the one I like most even though he can be slowly away in his races and likes to come off a good pace.  He won over C&D for previous trainer Marco Botti and is very effective on the artificial surfaces. The 6-year-old ended last season with a fourth placed effort here (1m 4f) and returned from a 4 month layoff with a promising ½ length 3rd of 10 over an inadequate 1m 2f ½ f at Newcastle 22 days ago. He looks well enough treated to win a handicap like this when all the cards fall right.

The 16/1 available with Bet365 looks very fair to me as does the more generally available 14/1. David Egan has already been booked which suggests he will line-up on Saturday. If his price does hold up after final declarations, I would recommend him as a solid win & place bet. For now, though its win only.

Geremia – 16/1 @ Bet365 or 14/1 @ Ladbrokes & William Hill.

Circuit Breaker – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.

It's important to highlight that these two selections were identified as value picks on Tuesday afternoon. At this stage, my focus is primarily on identifying value in the weekend's ante post market rather than solely seeking out winners.

As we approach final declarations, I will reassess the race and may identify additional selections if either of my initial picks becomes a non-runner. Adaptability and flexibility are as ever the key in maximizing profitable betting.

Thursday Preview

On Thursday, there's a rare and wondrous event taking place well for midweek. It's a jumps race, with £26,015 up for grabs for the winner.

Warwick

The going at Warwick is described as heavy. More rain has been forecast but at the time of writing this no morning inspection is planned. Fingers crossed they can race because despite just nine runners the feature looks an open looking contest.

5:05 – Wigley Group Challenger Staying Chase Series Final Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 3m

Here's a rundown of the contenders for the Wigley Group Challenger Staying Chase Series Final Handicap Chase at Warwick:

Your Own Story:

Sixth in last year’s Scottish Grand National, returned from an 11-month absence with a solid effort at Newcastle last month. A thorough stayer, but 3m around Warwick even on heavy ground might not provide enough of a stamina test.

Sure Touch:

Has had a good winter, winning his last two starts and proving his stamina for 2m 7f when winning at Taunton last time. A 7lb rise seems fair, but 3m on heavy ground will further test his stamina.

Ballygrifincottage:

Bounced back to form on his last two starts and is just 3lb higher than when a ¾ length 2nd of 10 at Sandown (3m) 26 days ago. Good claims if he can build on that Sandown performance.

No Risk Des Flos:

Seemed to prove his stamina for 3m when keeping on 6 ¾ lengths 4th of 10 at Sandown. Gets a 4lb pull with Ballygrifincottage and looks worth another try at the distance. He might be the biggest danger to stablemate Sure Touch.

Dreaming Blue:

A winner at Fontwell last time (2m 2f). He goes well on testing ground but takes a big step up in trip here.

No Hubs No Hoobs:

Improved for the fitting of blinkers to win his last two. But must prove himself away from right-handed tracks.

Laskalin:

Bounced back to form with first-time cheekpieces when 2nd of 7 at Taunton last month. Struggled for consistency but is well treated if he can back up his latest effort.

Trincomalee:

Suited by three miles and on a potentially winnable mark, but heavy ground is a concern.

Omar Maretti:

On a fair mark but not the most consistent and may be vulnerable to younger rivals.

Verdict: Each of these runners brings their own strengths and challenges to the race, making for an intriguing race. For me the race revolves around Sure Touch staying three miles in testing ground. If he does, he wins. If not stablemate No Risk Des Flos could be the one take advantage.

Good luck with your Thursday bets.

John