Good morning all,
The rain that fell at Wexford yesterday didn’t help the cause of yesterday’s selection Double Windsor. However, no damage done if you went in each way as he managed to get into the places.
In today’s main piece. I’m going to have a look at following the form of trend races and I have couple of selections from Leopardstown.
Follow the form or not?
One of the many nifty tools on horseracebase is the ability to follow the form of trend races. It’s something I have started to do with some success of late.
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Looking back at last week’s Goodwood Festival. Here are a couple examples as to what I mean.
Goodwood Stewards Cup
On Saturday we had the latest running of the annual cavalry charge known as the Stewards Cup. Looking at the last 23 renewals of the race, not one winner of the race followed up next time. Given those stats this year’s winner Summerghand looks one for the layer not the backers.
Even if you extend it out to cover the first three horses’ home: Summerghand, Kimifive and Brian The Snail, only 6 of the 69 qualifiers went on to win next time. If you had backed all those qualifiers next time out you would have lost £17 to a £1 Level Stake.
Stewards Cup consolation race
Looking at the Stewards Cup consolation run earlier on the card, just one of the last 21 winners of the race went on to win their next race. Digging deeper and looking at the first three home in the race, only four of the 63 qualifiers went in to win next time and if you had backed them all you would have lost £40.67 to a £1 level stake. So, another race to be wary of backing the first three on their next start.
Lilly Langtry Stakes
Moving onto the Group 2 Lilly Langtry Stakes, also on Saturday’s Goodwood card. Six of the 13 winners of the race went onto success next time out and if you had backed them all on their next run you would have made a healthy £15.2 profit to a £1 level stake. Enbihaar who was winning the race for the second year running looks worth following on her next start.
There you have it. A handful of examples of following the form of trend races.
Onto today’s action.
Thursday racing
There’s a good card at Leopardstown this afternoon with three Group races the highlight of an eight-race card. However, it’s a couple of the handicaps that interest me more.
Leopardstown
2:00 – Tai Sing Yeh has been running well so far this season and posted his best effort of the season when 4th of 15 over C&D 14-days ago. A hold up horse who can be slowly away. He will need a bit of luck in running from stall one but if he gets a clear passage, he’s on a competitive mark.
4:00 – The Dermot Weld trained Sweet Affection looks sure to be popular here. The 4-year-old has just had the five career starts and last time out posted a career best when 2nd of 16, here over 1m 4f. Granted she doesn’t look the easiest of rides but was doing her best work at the finish and today’s extra furlong should suit. Gavin Ryan takes off a handy 5lb which puts the filly firmly in the mix. Final Endeavour has improved with each of his three starts this season. Last time out he was an excellent 2nd of 15, here over 1m 4f last week. Can race off the same mark today and a reproduction of his last effort would see him go very close again
Thursday Selections:
Leopardstown
2:00 – Tai Sing Yeh – 5/1 @ Bet365
4:00 – Final Endeavour – 5/1 @ Bet365
Good luck with your bets.
John
John Burke is the tipster behind the long standing Victor Value service you can join himhere – https://victorvalue.uk