Morning all,

Big race trends/stats aren’t for everyone. They have in the past played a big part in my selection process for big races. However, the shutdown of racing in Britain & Ireland in the spring of 2020 had a big impact on my use of them. It was clear that given the unusual circumstances of that year that big race trends wouldn’t be a useful guide to finding winning selections and I kind of haven’t gone back to them in a big way since.

That doesn’t mean I don’t still look at the big race trends. Indeed, I have done so for this weekend’s Eider Chase and of course they guided my two picks in the Betfair Hurdle. Mind that didn’t exactly work at out well. My intuition was telling me this year’s race would see a ‘trends buster’. Instead of going with my intuition, I fixated on the trends.

All of this doesn’t mean I have completely binned off the old trends & stats. I certainly haven’t. In fact, I have been sharing with you some Cheltenham Festival stats for the last couple of weeks and I do so again today.

I think the Cheltenham Festival remains a meeting where it’s wise to keep a close eye on the trends & stats. Its just a case of focusing on the most relevant ones. Easier said than done but then that’s all part of the fun of solving the puzzle.

Inside today’s article, it’s another installment of my Path to Cheltenham series which includes another ante post selection. For those of you not interested in the ante post stuff. There’s a Cheltenham Festival Stat. If you’re not interested in that either. You can head straight to the bottom of the main piece to find today’s tip.

Path To Cheltenham

Let’s get the bad news out of the way first. My Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle ante post selection Mr Fred Rogers suffered a life ending injury at Clonmel last Thursday. One of the perils of ante post punting is not getting a run for your bet. In this case that doesn’t matter. It’s just sad to see a horse lose his life on the track. My condolences go out to the connections of the horse.

Did we see the Boodles winner at Market Rasen?

Sadly, I can’t give you Petit Tonnerre at 16/1 for the Boodles Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle. The 4-year-old – two from two over hurdles when trained in France – made his debut for Jonjo O’Neill against two rivals at Market Rasen on Tuesday. He comfortably saw them off.  Looking an exciting prospect in the process. He’s now a best priced 12/1 for the Boodles and those odds remain more than fair. He also around 33/1 for the Triumph Hurdle but you would think the handicap is his most likely option next month.

Since 2016, twenty-five have ran at Market Rasen prior to coming to the festival and none have won.

Thedevilscoachman Could Be Cheltenham Bound

Langer Dan was back for the first time since his 2 ¼ length 2nd of 22 to Galopin des Champs in Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle at last year’s festival. One of the ante post leading fancies for this year’s Martin Pipe. He looked badly in need of the run of the run at Taunton on Tuesday, finishing a 10-length 6^th of 6. That run will have blown away the cobwebs away and he’s going to be major player in the Martin Pipe again.  

Since 2016, thirty-four horses ran at Taunton prior to the festival and none of them won.

Tuesday was a busy day for Cheltenham hopefuls. Thedevilscoachman was back over the smaller obstacles, after two starts over fences, in the 2m 5f Grade 2 Boyne Hurdle at Navan. Making his first start beyond an extended 2m ½ f. He needed every yard of the longer distance to get up in the shadow of the post to catch the front running Ashdale Bob.

The softer the ground the better for the 6-year-old who could now head to Cheltenham for the Coral Cup. A race which he’s a best priced 12/1 with William Hill.

Coral Cup

Having mentioned Thedevilscoachman and the Coral Cup in the previous section its that race that coincidently provides today’s Cheltenham ante post selection. Now the weights for the Coral Cup have yet to be published but there is one that I want in my festival portfolio.

This year’s Coral Cup looks a strong race. Last weekend’s easy Ascot winner Good Risk At All heads the ante post betting. He’ progressive and there should be more to come from the 6-year-old. Just behind him in the betting is the Dan Skelton trained Unexpected Party. He’s another open to more improvement over hurdles and showed a nice turn of foot, coming two out, to win at Ascot last time. I like both horses although I have a slight preference for the Skelton horse.

Drop The Anchor

Drop The Anchor is more exposed than two mentioned above. The 8-year-old is a very useful handicap hurdler at his best as he showed last season when winning the valuable Ladbrokes Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival. He then went onto finish a 3 ¼ length 7th of 25 to Belfast Banter in County Hurdle at Cheltenham. Has had light campaign this season, just the two starts over hurdles, running much better last time when a 10 ¼ length 5^th of 27 in this year’s Ladbroke Hurdle. As in the County Hurdle he was strong at the finish at Leopardstown.

Granted stamina for 2m 5f must be proven but I think he needs further than 2m these days.  Not a certain runner in the Coral Cup, he could go for the County again, but I think this will be his target. I certainly hope so.

Coral Cup Selection: Drop The Anchor – 16/1 @ Paddy Power & William Hill (NRNB).

Cheltenham is getting closer and closer and there are just two more Thursdays before Cheltenham. Yep, I’m getting excited and I’m sure you are too.

Cheltenham Festival Stat:

Last week I identified a possible Henry De Bromhead angle at the Cheltenham #Festival. I’m sticking with trainers again this week and looking at Gordon Elliott.

Gordon Elliott

Since 2016 Elliott has had 27 winners at the festival from 166 qualifiers. If you had backed all his runners blind you would have made £76.80 to a £1 Level Stake. Those 27 winners put him in second place in the top trainer’s table. He’s ten behind Willie Mullins but ten ahead of his nearest rival Nicky Henderson.  Elliott couldn’t be at Cheltenham last season due suspension so I’m sure he will be looking to have plenty of winners this time around.

What are profitable angles for the Elliott yard?

He’s 7 winners from 46 runners -13.95 19 placed with his runners that were favourite last time out. Compared with 20 winners from 120 runners 17% +90.75 (+146.85 BFSP) 47 placed. Such qualifiers have performed 67% better than market expectations. Each way backers have also done well making +154.57.

Only six of his 27 winners ran at Leopardstown prior to going to Cheltenham – 6 winners from 57 runners 11% -26.27 24 placed.

Using those two filters:

Favourite Status (LTO): Non-Favourites

Track (LTO):  Not Leopardstown

Produced the following set of results – 16 winners from 76 runners 21% +108.75 (+162.16 BFSP) and +171.82 for each way backers.

Thursday Racing

The Grade 3 Michael Purcell Memorial Novice Hurdle (3.40) at Thurles is the big race of moderate Thursday fare but in truth it looks a very poor renewal. There are also jumps cards at Huntingdon and Sedgefield and all-weather meetings at Southwell and Newcastle. I’m off to Huntingdon for today’s selection.

Huntingdon

3:55 – Trainer Kim Bailey had a double at Ludlow yesterday to make it 7-20 in the past 14-days. I fancy his Lots Of Luck here. The 8-year-old jumped well when making all to win over C&D (soft) 14-days ago. He gets the same conditions here and should be able to dictate the pace again. Up 5lb but still looks nicely treated if in the same form as last time

Selection: Lots Of Luck

Good luck with your Thursday bets.

John