Morning all,

Spring is here!  Ok, it may not be the Astronomical spring but it’s the start of the Meteorological spring and that will do for me.

What a month March is too. In just two weeks we have the Cheltenham Festival and the month ends with the start of the 2022 flat season. It’s a great month but the sport enters a new month with a ‘Sword of Damocles’ still hanging over it and its something I look at today. Inside today’s main piece I look at affordability checks. Plus, there’s two for the tracker and a Tuesday tip from Newcastle.

Affordability Checks: The end of racing as we know it?

I have been meaning to write about the thorny issues of betting affordability checks. I have stayed away from the subject. Not because it’s not important. Far from it, they an existential threat to the sport as we know it. No, what’s stopped me has been trying to distil the issue into around 500 words. Well today I’m going to give it a try.  

Not in my lifetime has there been a time when the sport faced so many threats to future health and even existence.

Of the many threats horse racing faces the most pressing is the genuine possibility of bookmakers being forced by the government to impose on punters maximum monthly loss limits.

Parliament has still to decide on the subject. It is as I write considering submissions from various representatives including the horse racing industry who are rightly pointing out the potential big hole in the sports finances that affordability checks will bring.

Look how many punters will be willing to allow bookmakers to view their personal information like bank statements and wage slips. Only a small minority will do so.

What will happen?

Well, there will be mass migration of punters to the online ‘black market’ firms. That trend is already been happening in the UK as shown in recent research published for the Betting and Gaming Council.

“British punters using unlicensed sites have more than doubled in just two years, from 220,000 users to 460,000 and the amount staked is now in the billions of pounds”.

The story is even worse in Europe. In Norway 66% of online money staked heads offshore. Meanwhile France has seen 57% of all money staked online head to black market operators.

If your small stake ‘life changing’ multiple punter. You would continue to use the high street firms because of fears that black market operators would be reluctant to make a huge pay out. A very legitimate worry. Plus, paying over the counter and given the size of the stakes you are unlikely to trigger affordability checks.

For the single bet punters, the black-market operators will prove to be a tempting option. In that case, the impact on UK horse racing. if bookmakers must demand non-essential information from punters would for me be disastrous.  

I don’t think the sport as we know it can survive losing punters money. Many of the smaller racecourses will be gone. Leaving the sport with only the big festival tracks or those that can attract the music nights and where the sport is a secondary reason for attending.

It could get worse

In fact, it could get even worse. The economic effects of Covid and lockdowns are just starting to be felt. And, with a Chancellor of the Exchequer looking for revenue. The low hanging fruit of betting   could be tempting to ignore. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if we see a return to a betting tax (only abolished in 2021).

So, horse racing could face not only affordability checks but a ‘double whammy’ of a return to a betting tax. The dark clouds are gathering on the horizon and the fallout from the storm will be severe.

Let’s hope evidence and facts overrule emotion and politics on the issue of affordability checks. My head says common sense will prevail.. However, with a government in need of quick win with the wider public I’m not totally confident  

Rant over. Let’s go back to action on the track and this week’s tracker horses.

Tracker Time:

Kitty’s Light – Christian Williams

Has benefitted from some recent leniency from the handicapper. Held up off the pace in Saturday’s Coral Trophy Handicap Chase he came with steady run and in the straight briefly looked like he might be coming with a winning run. Still, it was a cracking effort in finishing second. Especially given 3m on sharp track like Kempton would be plenty short enough, given the 6-year-old stays 3m 5f.

Very unlucky in last season’s Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown. Looked to be coming with a winning run when barged by the first past the post Enrilo close to the line. Given his liking for a sound surface the Bet365 Gold Cup seems likely to be on the agenda again.

Special mention for Enrilo who finished fourth in the same race. He’s unexposed over marathon trips and this was his best effort since his Sandown effort. You would think the Bet365 Gold Cup or maybe even the Scottish Grand National look ideal targets for the 8-year-old who took well to the first time cheekpieces.

This week’s second tracker horse ran at Fairyhouse on Saturday

Carrig Sam – Arthur Moore

A point winner last season. The 6-year-old made a winning hurdle debut over C&D last month. Given his lack of experience it was good effort to make all and beat 15 more experienced rivals on just his second start over hurdles. His jumping was good and although he will go up in the weights for this success. However. he looks the sort improve further when stepping up beyond 2m 4f and is an exciting prospect.

In the same handicap hurdle Enniskerry ran an eyecatcher in finishing an 8-length 8th of 16 to Carrig Sam. The lightly raced 8-year-old was having his first start for 8-months and fared best of the hold up horses. He stays 2m 4f well and wasn’t subjected to hard race in the final stages of the race. He should be sharper for this run. His best from has come on a sounder surface that he got on Saturday and he’s one to note in handicap hurdles during the spring.

Tuesday Racing

Leicester and Catterick provide the jumps action this afternoon and there’s an all-weather evening card at Newcastle. It doesn’t get much worse than today’s action. It’s very moderate fare.

Wolverhampton

7:30 – True Mason a useful juvenile but hasn’t won his 2-year-old’s days. Put in a good effort when a 2 ¾ lengths 5th of 12 when last seen in action over C&D 126-days ago. He was closing when not getting a clear run 2f out that day. Once a gap appeared, he was finishing his race off strongly.  He has a long absence to overcome but Hollie Doyle has been booked for the ride and I’m expecting a good run from the 6-year-old.

Selection: True Mason – 9/2 – Gen.

Good luck with your Tuesday bets.

John