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Newmarket July Festival Trainers

Morning all,

We’re on the eve of the Newmarket July Festival and of course “Super Saturday”. Given the poor figures at Sandown on Saturday for the Coral-Eclipse. It will be interesting to see how attendance fare over the three days at Newmarket.

Newmarket is the feature meeting of “Super Saturday” with the highlight being the Group 1 July Cup which is shaping up to be a cracker. It’s another ‘clash of the generations’ this time over 6f. The race will hopefully see Commonwealth Cup Winner Perfect Power taking on the first three home in the Platinum Jubilee Stakes: Naval Crown, Creative Flare and Artorius.  

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Newmarket might have on Saturday, but It won’t see the biggest attendance of the day. That will be at York where there’s likely to be twice as many people for John Smith’s Cup Day. It’s a race day that’s always attracted a big crowd and last year 28,158 people were in attendance, albeit just over 40,000 were there to watch the action in 2016.

It looks like the weather is going to pay ball. Fingers crossed, if the weather forecasters are right were heading into a dry and warm, even hot spell of weather

Inside today’s main piece. I look at few trainers whose runners could be worth following at the July Festival and there’s a Wednesday selection from Kempton.

Newmarket July Festival: Trainers to Note

Having mentioned Paddy Twomey as a trainer to note at the Irish Derby Festival. I decided to do the same for the July Festival.

Looking at results since 2016, leaving out 2020 for obvious reasons, there are five trainers who stand out and they’re also the top five trainers numerically at the meeting.

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The good…

Charlie Appleby – 19 winners from 65 runners 29% +22.43 A/E 1.32 33 placed 51%.

Richard Hannon – 11 winners from 63 runners 17% +23.75 A/E 1.83 20 placed 32%.

Mark Johnston – 9 winners from 63 runners 14% +25.33 A/E 1.19 16 placed 25%.

Aidan O’Brien – 9 winners from 40 runners 23% +9.21 A/E 1.2 20 placed 50%.

Saeed Bin Suroor – 5 winners from 30 runners 20% +9.63 A/E 1.41 11 placed 37%.

The Boys in Blue

All nineteen of Charlie Appleby winners were well found in the market. With those returned 7/1 & under producing 19 winners from 51 runners 37% +36.43 A/E 1.42 32 placed 63%.

Considering the Saeed Bin Suroor runners it seems clear to me that Godolphin like to target the July Festival especially with their juveniles. Focusing on both trainer’s records with 2-year-olds, either making their racecourse debut or having had one previous run produced – 12 winners from 27 runners 44% +39.1 A/E 1.83 18 placed 67%.  There won’t be many qualifiers and they won’t do much damage to the betting bank either.

Usual caveats apply as past results are not a guarantee of future success.

The bad….

Interestingly two big name trainers who have struggled for winners at the meeting are John Gosden and William Haggas.

John Gosden – 4 winners from 71 runners 6% -50.5 24 placed 34%

William Haggas – 3 winners from 30 runners 10% – 8.59 10 placed 33%

The actual over expected (AE) for Gosden is a miserable 0.35 and Haggas aren’t much better at 0.63. However. it must be said that Haggas had 3 winners from 7 runners 43% +14.14 4 placed 57% in 2021. Given the yard’s form, I think he might be in for another good July Festival and I wouldn’t want to be in a hurry to lay his horses.

The Gosden yard did have two winners in 2020 but you must go back to 2017 Festival for another winner. Inspiral aside, I would be slightly wary of their runners over the next three days.

The ugly

Three other notable trainers with poor records here are Charlie Hills, Roger Varian, and Sir Michael Stoute. Hills is 0 winners from 30 runners 3 placed, Varian is 1 winner from 35 runners (A/E 0.19) placed and Sir Michael is 1 winner from 26 runners (A/E 0.25) 9 placed.

July Cup – Newmarket

The July Cup is one of the richest sprints in Europe with this year’s renewal worth £356,422 to the winner. It often provides the Champion sprinter of the season. Looking at the potential runners in this year’s race it seems likely to so again. We have the first three in the Platinum Jubilee possibly taking three of the first four home in the Commonwealth Cup. Add in the intriguing possibility of Irish raider Romantic Proposal, who missed Royal Ascot, and you have the makings of the sprint race of the season so far. That said it probably won’t turn out to be a vintage renewal.

Trends

Looking at the ten-year trends. All the last ten winners shared the following four traits:

Odds SP: 20/1 & under

Distance Move: Down or same

Runs at Track: 0 to 1

Runs At Distance: 4 to 14.

That’s 10 winners from 36 runners 15 placed or 10 winners from just 27% of the total runners. Looking at the draw winners can come from across the track although those drawn in stalls 1 to 3 are 0 winners from 27 runners 4 placed.

I will probably look at the race in more detail in Saturday’s column. But are a few quick thoughts.

Perfect Power looks a worthy favourite but at 9/4 he’s plenty short enough. Given I think this looks a 7/2 the field sort of race.

There seems to be plenty of confidence Australian raider Artorius can reverse placings with the two that finished in front of him at Royal Ascot. He looks sure to be bang there but looks like a horse who places more than he wins.

At the prices I prefer the claims of the winner of the Platinum Jubilee Naval Crown whose Royal Ascot win seems to be slightly underestimated.  

Cadamosto is getting better with racing and improved to finish a 2 ¼ length 4th of 20 to Perfect Power in the Commonwealth Cup. He was briefly stopped inside the final furlong otherwise would probably have finished a clear second.  He has got each way claims with Aidan O’Brien bidding for a fourth win in the race. Another with each way claims if she comes over is the mare Romantic Proposal.

Wednesday Racing

There are three afternoon fixtures from Lingfield, Catterick and Yarmouth. Today’s action is completed by evening cards at Kempton, Bath and Fairyhouse.  Plenty of racing but I scraping the barrel looking for a selection.

Kempton

6:45 – Vino Victrix won over C&D last September from 2lb lower. He hasn’t reached that level of form since but ran well when a 3 /4 length 3rd of 10 here over 1m 4f two starts back. Not as good at that trip last time but he shaped that day like he needed a return to further. Another previous C&D winner Master Milliner had little chance at the weights in the Queen Alexandra at Royal Ascot last time but had run much better at York on his previous and is respected with Harry Davies taking off 5lb. Moliwood posted his best two RPR’s over C&D earlier in the year, including a win over C&D in January. Ran to bad to be true when tailed off at Newmarket 54-days ago. It's probably best to draw a line under that run and the 4-year-old rates the pick over Vino Victrix.

Moliwood – 9/2 @Bet365.

Good luck with your Wednesday bets.

John

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