Morning all,

The Robbie Dunne saga continues to hang over the sport like a bad smell. I listened to the Weighed-In Betfair Podcast and for me Tony Calvin, Kevin Blake and Vanessa Ryle pretty much nailed it on. It’s the best take you will hear on the subject by a country mile and very much worth a listen if you get a chance.

After the judgement and suspension of Dunne on Friday. The jockeys came out firing and completely missed the target. Which I suppose we could have expected. David Bass who normally comes across as a decent speaker sounded like blithering idiot.

You got a sense that that the jockey’s don’t think there is any problem in the weighing room or that they had learned anything from the Dunne case. The attitudes in the weighing room are 40 years out of date and no longer acceptable today

Then on Friday at Cheltenham we had grown men thinking that were the victims. Triggered by the word ‘rancid’. Oh, poor lambs.

A weighing room that allows a grown man to call a young woman a c… not just in the heat of a moment but on more than one occasion which became a campaign of intimidation is I’m afraid ‘rancid’ work place. There are no other words to describe it.

Where were the jockeys standing up and saying to Dunne that your behaviour is not acceptable?  What comes across to me is that most jump jockeys don’t like Bryony Frost. Are they jealous of her success? Are they jealous because of the media attention she gets? It looks like it to me

Sadly, the jockeys have proved that they can’t police themselves and the quicker they and some trainers publicly accept the verdict the quicker the sport can move away from this.

Rant over!

Something for the Weekend – Part 1

Back to action on the track. It’s the last Saturday of action before Christmas and there’s an excellent six race card at Ascot with the highlight being the Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase (3:00) and the Betfair Exchange Trophy Handicap Hurdle (3:35). There’s also a seven-race card at Haydock with the highlight being the Virgin Bet Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase (2:40). The ITV cameras are covering four races from Ascot and two from Haydock as part of a six-race programme on Saturday.

Today’ I’m looking ahead to the big Ascot handicap hurdle.

Betfair Exchange Trophy Handicap Hurdle – Ascot

From a trends perspective. There isn’t much to see. However, there are few interesting ones.

The bias that you might expect to see towards younger horses isn’t apparent.

Looking at the last 12 running’s of the race:

4yo & 5yo are 5 winners from 115 runners 21 placed.

6yo+ are 7 winners from 80 runners 20 placed.

Higher rated horses have performed better than market expectations. Those officially rated between 141 & 149 have produced – 7 winners from 68 runners +41.5 16 placed

Finally, those horses with 1 or 2 handicap hurdle wins are 9 winners from 99 runners +15 25 placed and have performed 29% better than market expectations.

Market leaders:

Sixteen stood their ground on Monday confirmation stage.  At the head of the ante post market is No Ordinary Joe who improved when 2 ¾ length 3rd of 19 to West Cork in Greatwood Handicap Hurdle on handicap debut at Cheltenham last month.

West Cork seems likely to reoppose on Saturday. He’s 4lb worse off with No Ordinary Joe but there shouldn’t be much between the pair again with both open to more improvement. West Cork does also tick those key trends mentioned above and trainer Dan Skelton has saddled the winner of the race twice since 2013.

Samarrive seemed to show improved form for facing soft ground when winning at Sandown last time. He’s up 11lb in a much better race here. However, the 4-year-old has only had four careers starts so is capable of better.

Some of the rest:

Garry Clermont posted a career best on RPR’s when a ¾ length 2^nd of 9 over C&D (good) last month. He’s been raised 5lb for that effort but that was his first start since May and softer ground could suit him better on Saturday. He could still rate higher.

Global Citizen is more exposed than most. The 9-year-old seemed to lose his way over fences but shaped with a bit more promise when 2^nd of 8 at Doncaster last time. The first time cheekpieces seemed to spark him into life that day and there’s now doubt he’s become a well handicapped horse.

Goshen would be making his handicap hurdle debut should he run on Saturday. It would be a great effort to win this off top-weight. However, he’s a former C&D winner and he shaped a bit better than his final position suggests when 4^th of 5 to Buzz on his seasonal return here last month. He didn’t stay 2m 3f that day and will be better back at the minimum trip.

Tritonic was an 8 ½ length 5th of 19 to West Cork in Greatwood Hurdle on handicap debut last time. At the revised weights he would have to come under serious consideration. He shaped at Cheltenham like he might be worth a try beyond the minimum trip but he’s a former C&D winner and provided the ground isn’t too soft could go well.

Wednesday Racing

Today’s action is at Newbury and Leicester over jumps and there are all-weather cards at Lingfield, Kempton and Dundalk.

The Newbury card is interesting enough. The feature race at the Berkshire track is a Listed Mares Chase (2:00). However, I’m off to Kempton for today’s selection.

Kempton

6:15 – Kondratiev Wave has returned from a 3-month break with a couple of respectable efforts at Chelmsford & Lingfield. The 4-year-old is just 1lb above his last winning mark and seems to be running his way back to form.

Selection: Kondratiev Wave – 7/1 – Gen.

Good luck with your Wednesday bets.

John