Tag Archives: answer

Henderson Debutantes Update

Back in November Daily Punt reader Derek shared a system with us for profiting from Nicky Henderson's charges having their first ever start.

You can read the original post here https://dailypunt.com/henderson-debutants-system/

Today I will update you on the results since we published that system.

There have been just 20 bets, so about 5 or 6 per month.

There have been 9 winners, which is a whopping 45% strike rate, which is very impressive for any live tested system.

The profit at industry SP is 25.63 points, which again is amazing and calculates to a whopping 128% ROI.Continue Reading

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Being flexible added 8% ROI

Malcolm Pett's Wednesday column
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I have always liked to think of myself as a “Flexible” thinker.

In other words I am ready to change my opinion if I feel there is enough evidence to convince me that another way is better.

Sometimes I have to admit that I can be a little too quick to change my opinion but I suppose I would rather be that way, than to stubborn to change it at all.

Don’t get me wrong I have very strong belief’s about some things, it’s just I like to be flexible about others.

For instance I am a dog obedience and trick trainer and over the years I have learned the best way to train is “reward” based training.

It’s quick and it works and dogs respond to it well.

So I am totally against using any device or training method that causes a dog distress or harm or even looks like it could.

Sorry you won’t convince me otherwise!

But on the other hand…

I have been talking about the “Interactive” ratings that we are testing over at the Grey Horse Bot website for the last month.

I came up with a rating as 220 as being the best figure to follow.

But now on reflection and more testing I think 260 is the better number.

It’s not quite as profitable as 220 (by a very small margin) …

…But there are 3 good reasons for choosing 260

1. A higher strike rate.

2. Less selections

3. A higher Roi.

Although taking all the selections into consideration over the last 
3 months 220 has made 38.63 points, 260 has made 38.59.

Hardly anything in it…

But you would have been on fewer selections, which would have given 
you a higher strike rate and a better return on your investment.

The strike rate difference is over 4% and the ROI is 8% better.

So in this case it seems sensible to change from 220 to 260.

But that is the really good thing about this test it has allowed users to decide which rating suits them.

I do have to have a little giggle to myself though when after all I have written about these ratings I still get the question…

“What is the best rating to follow?”

Well at least I now have an answer…

If you want to follow along with the test then pop over to the Grey Horse Bot website.

Maybe you have another opinion…

It would be great to hear it.

Thanks
Malcolm

http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

14:30 Chelmsford City Indias Song – win bet – 9/4 Sky Bet

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Free National Hunt System

Thanks for your comments on yesterday's article I have more on the Willie Mullins runners today.

Willie Mullins

The first question asked in the comments was what are the returns if we only back the runners that carry the top jockeys at the most profitable tracks?

Well the answer is that you get a reduction in bets down to just 56 since January 1st 2013 but that you get a return on investment of a healthy 53%, so that's good.

But what I notice when I look at the performance at the various tracks when Ruby or Paul ride is that a lot more tracks move into the profitable side of the table.

And that if we add in those other tracks where a profit has been made then we can get the number of bets up over 200.

In fact we get 229 runs, 109 wins, 64.93 profit and 28.35% Return on Investment.

By the way most of the profit comes from Paul Townend, because when Ruby rides the horse is always overbet and the price starts much shorter 🙁

Anyway here's what we have now (results are from 1st January 2013 to yesterday)

National Hunt, Hurdle Races in Ireland at one of the following courses

Ballinrobe, Fairyhouse, Galway, Leopardstown, Limerick, Naas, Navan, Punchestown,
Sligo, Thurles, Tipperary or Wexford

Horse Trained by Willie Mullins

Horse ridden by Ruby Walsh or Paul Townend

Postion in market equals 1 to 4

Runs = 229
Wins = 109
Strike Rate = 47.6%
Profit at iSP = 64.93
Return on Investment = 28.35%

Today's Selection

6.40 Wolverhampton Deebaj – win bet 11/10 Paddy Power

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National Hunt Trainer Facts

This morning I'm trying to get a handle on where I want to go with a new National Hunt system, so I'm looking at some facts and figures in the hope that an idea of angle jumps out at me.

So I've logged into Horse Race Base and loaded up all Hurdle runs in 2013 and so far in 2014 and I'm looking at the trainers to see where the best returns are.

If I look at trainers that have had more than 75 runs since January 1st 2013 and sort them by strike rate, then the trainer with the highest strike rate is Willie Mullins…

Runs = 641

Wins = 186

Strike Rate = 29%

Loss at industry SP = -124.03

ROI = – 19.35 %

I'd say a strike rate of 29% from all hurdlers sent out is huge. A loss of 19.35% on turnover is a lot, and although I'm sure that can be improved by betting at Betfair SP I would imagine a lot of these were favourites and that the Betfair SP returns wouldn't be a great deal better.

Interestingly, just down the list a bit is Nicky Henderson with a 24% strike rate but only a 7% loss on turnover…

Runs = 525

Wins = 125

Strike Rate = 24%

Loss at industry SP = -36.75

ROI = – 7 %

So my next task is going to be to have a closer look at the hurdlers of these two trainers.

First off, I'm interested in how many runners Willie Mullins actually sends over to the UK and whether they perform better or worse than his Irish runners.

The answer is that only 61 came to the UK in the period and the strike rate with these 61 was 21% and the loss of turnover was 29%.

So the profit and runners will be in Ireland.

The table below shows the breakdown of the Irish runners by track, you will see there are some huge strike rates at some of the courses…

Willie Mullins Irish Course Run 2013 - 14 table

Next I looked at position in the odds market and this is interesting out of the 580 runs that Willie had in Ireland since January 1st 2013 a whopping 469 were ranked in the first four in the betting market.

How many that were not in the first four in the betting do you think went on to win?

Well according to Horse Race Base the answer is none!

In fact if we only bet Willie Mullins hurdlers that run in Ireland and are in the first three in the betting then we have a system that just edges into profit at Industry SP.

If we only look at those ridden by Paul Townend or Ruby Walsh, who take most of the rides then we have the following figures since January 1st 2013…

Runs = 331

Wins = 139

Strike Rate = 41.99 %

Profit at industry SP = 22

ROI = 6.65%

That's a great strike rate and if you can't stomach losing runs then these rules will find you bets that see you collecting regularly, but these horses are over bet, especially when Ruby is on board, so the profit isn't huge.

Today's Selection

2.40 Redcar Mixed Message – win bet – 5/6 Bet 365

 

 

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