Malcolm Pett's Wednesday column
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I have always liked to think of myself as a “Flexible” thinker.
In other words I am ready to change my opinion if I feel there is enough evidence to convince me that another way is better.
Sometimes I have to admit that I can be a little too quick to change my opinion but I suppose I would rather be that way, than to stubborn to change it at all.
Don’t get me wrong I have very strong belief’s about some things, it’s just I like to be flexible about others.
For instance I am a dog obedience and trick trainer and over the years I have learned the best way to train is “reward” based training.
It’s quick and it works and dogs respond to it well.
So I am totally against using any device or training method that causes a dog distress or harm or even looks like it could.
Sorry you won’t convince me otherwise!
But on the other hand…
I have been talking about the “Interactive” ratings that we are testing over at the Grey Horse Bot website for the last month.
I came up with a rating as 220 as being the best figure to follow.
But now on reflection and more testing I think 260 is the better number.
It’s not quite as profitable as 220 (by a very small margin) …
…But there are 3 good reasons for choosing 260
1. A higher strike rate.
2. Less selections
3. A higher Roi.
Although taking all the selections into consideration over the last
3 months 220 has made 38.63 points, 260 has made 38.59.
Hardly anything in it…
But you would have been on fewer selections, which would have given
you a higher strike rate and a better return on your investment.
The strike rate difference is over 4% and the ROI is 8% better.
So in this case it seems sensible to change from 220 to 260.
But that is the really good thing about this test it has allowed users to decide which rating suits them.
I do have to have a little giggle to myself though when after all I have written about these ratings I still get the question…
“What is the best rating to follow?”
Well at least I now have an answer…
If you want to follow along with the test then pop over to the Grey Horse Bot website.
Maybe you have another opinion…
It would be great to hear it.
Thanks
Malcolm
http://greyhorsebot.com
Today's Selection
14:30 Chelmsford City Indias Song – win bet – 9/4 Sky Bet
Free National Hunt System
Thanks for your comments on yesterday's article I have more on the Willie Mullins runners today.
Willie Mullins
The first question asked in the comments was what are the returns if we only back the runners that carry the top jockeys at the most profitable tracks?
Well the answer is that you get a reduction in bets down to just 56 since January 1st 2013 but that you get a return on investment of a healthy 53%, so that's good.
But what I notice when I look at the performance at the various tracks when Ruby or Paul ride is that a lot more tracks move into the profitable side of the table.
And that if we add in those other tracks where a profit has been made then we can get the number of bets up over 200.
In fact we get 229 runs, 109 wins, 64.93 profit and 28.35% Return on Investment.
By the way most of the profit comes from Paul Townend, because when Ruby rides the horse is always overbet and the price starts much shorter 🙁
Anyway here's what we have now (results are from 1st January 2013 to yesterday)
National Hunt, Hurdle Races in Ireland at one of the following courses
Ballinrobe, Fairyhouse, Galway, Leopardstown, Limerick, Naas, Navan, Punchestown,
Sligo, Thurles, Tipperary or Wexford
Horse Trained by Willie Mullins
Horse ridden by Ruby Walsh or Paul Townend
Postion in market equals 1 to 4
Runs = 229
Wins = 109
Strike Rate = 47.6%
Profit at iSP = 64.93
Return on Investment = 28.35%
Today's Selection
6.40 Wolverhampton Deebaj – win bet 11/10 Paddy Power
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