Malcolm Pett's Wednesday column
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I have always liked to think of myself as a “Flexible” thinker.
In other words I am ready to change my opinion if I feel there is enough evidence to convince me that another way is better.
Sometimes I have to admit that I can be a little too quick to change my opinion but I suppose I would rather be that way, than to stubborn to change it at all.
Don’t get me wrong I have very strong belief’s about some things, it’s just I like to be flexible about others.
For instance I am a dog obedience and trick trainer and over the years I have learned the best way to train is “reward” based training.
It’s quick and it works and dogs respond to it well.
So I am totally against using any device or training method that causes a dog distress or harm or even looks like it could.
Sorry you won’t convince me otherwise!
But on the other hand…
I have been talking about the “Interactive” ratings that we are testing over at the Grey Horse Bot website for the last month.
I came up with a rating as 220 as being the best figure to follow.
But now on reflection and more testing I think 260 is the better number.
It’s not quite as profitable as 220 (by a very small margin) …
…But there are 3 good reasons for choosing 260
1. A higher strike rate.
2. Less selections
3. A higher Roi.
Although taking all the selections into consideration over the last
3 months 220 has made 38.63 points, 260 has made 38.59.
Hardly anything in it…
But you would have been on fewer selections, which would have given
you a higher strike rate and a better return on your investment.
The strike rate difference is over 4% and the ROI is 8% better.
So in this case it seems sensible to change from 220 to 260.
But that is the really good thing about this test it has allowed users to decide which rating suits them.
I do have to have a little giggle to myself though when after all I have written about these ratings I still get the question…
“What is the best rating to follow?”
Well at least I now have an answer…
If you want to follow along with the test then pop over to the Grey Horse Bot website.
Maybe you have another opinion…
It would be great to hear it.
Thanks
Malcolm
http://greyhorsebot.com
Today's Selection
14:30 Chelmsford City Indias Song – win bet – 9/4 Sky Bet
SP Before the Off
Malcolm explains how we can know the Betfair SP and bet based on Betfair SP before the off!
Here's Malcolm…
Just about every system you come across on the web would first have been created using past data.
If this is the case then the result will be shown using either SP (Industry Standard starting price) or BSP (Betfair Starting Price) for results.
There is nothing really wrong with this because it is the only way of giving people the chance to check the results they are seeing as being accurate.
But where it does cause an issue and pose a problem is when it is a price sensitive system or a system that relies on being on a particular ranked runner, like the favourite.
BSP and SP are calculated at the off.
You may think by looking at the ranking a few seconds before the off will tell you who was favourite, second favourited etc…
But often this isn't the case. The BSP/SP announced ranking can be different to the just before the off rank.
A short test we did with Betfair some time back clearly showed that the rankings can differ by as much as 1 or 2 runners in every 10.
Maybe this doesn’t sound too bad…
…But when you consider you could be following hundreds or even thousands of bets over the course of a year…this could easily change the results you were expecting or the results being advertised.
The same is true of price. The price before the off is often different to BSP/SP causing even more inaccuracies in your system.
So what can you do to make sure you are on the correct runner or within the correct price range?
You may already know that just as Betfair's market goes in-play the BSP price and ranking is made available through their API.
So we have developed a great feature on the Grey Horse Bot that allows the bot to read the BSP price and Ranking as soon as it happens.
This gives the Grey Horse Bot user the opportunity to choose which ranked runner to bet on or to only place a bet into the market if it is within the price range you require.
When you create your own system it should be part of your testing to determine if you get better prices before the off or in-play. You can test both automatically with the Grey Horse Bot.
Thank you for reading I really do appreciate it.
Malcolm
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Malcolm is the creator of a number of Betfair automated betting products like the Grey Horse Bot. He also writes articles for Betfair. Apart from automation Malcolm likes creating and testing systems and believes his readers should have all the statistical facts available to make proper informed decisions.
If you have any questions about bots or automation please add a comment and we'll try and answer them.
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