Tag Archives: breakdown

Odds On Trainers

So last week I shared my new Odds On Jockey system for All Weather racing and since I posted it there have been three winners from four selections and a profit at industry SP of 3.25 points, so we’re off to a good start.

Today I’ll run you through the equally simple Odds On Trainer system for the All Weather.

So basically we are looking for horses that are running on the All Weather that start at 6/4 or shorter that are trained by one of the trainers I have listed below.

These guys produced a 36 point profit in 2014 and are in form with their All Weather runners.

Here’s the full 2014 results breakdown…

Runs = 234
Wins = 144
Strike Rate = 61%
Profit at industry SP =36.65
Return On Investment = 15.6%

The Trainers to Follow

Balding, A M Burke, K R
Butler, John Gosden, J H M
Halford, M Hannon (Jnr), Richard
Littmoden, N P Noseda, J
Ryan, K A Simcock, D M
Stoute, Sir Michael Varian, Roger
Walker, Ed

 

Today’s Selection

5.55 Wolverhampton Oratorio’s Joy – eachway bet – 5/1 Paddy Power, Bet Victor

Southwell Trainer System

Today I’ve nicked a very small part of a detailed article that Nick Hardman wrote for the On Course Profits magazine.

(Get the whole mag for free at http://oncourseprofits.com)

The article that Nick wrote teaches readers how to find their own profitable trainer trends and in this excerpt he starts by looking at the leading trainers at Southwell.

southwell top trainers

 

Keith Dalgleish has a very healthy 28% strike rate and has had a decent amount of runners. By clicking on “Run” we can see the yearly breakdown of the trainer’s performance at the track.

Keith Dalgleish Breakdown

 

Two things are interesting here. Firstly, he has almost doubled the amount of runners he sends to the Midlands track compared to 2011 and 2012. Secondly, his performance in the last 2 seasons suggests his yard is clearly on an upward curve.

Again we use Keith Dalgleish at Southwell (AW) from 2011 to 2014 as the basic system to search for a profitable betting angle in HRB. Immediately we can see that all of his profit has come in handicap races.

Keith Dalgleish Handicap

Digging deeper into his handicap performers showed winners came from all age groups across a variety of race distances. The recommendation here would be to back all his handicap runners at Southwell.

If you haven’t already subscribed to On Course Profits then I highly recommend that you do so today and lock in a free life time subscription. Click Here

Today’s Selection

12:20 Newcastle Jonny Eager – win bet 3/1 Coral

 

Doncaster Hurdlers

Today we have our regular, winning advice from Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders. (http://bettinginsiders.com )

Another Three Winners

We bagged another 3 winners last Friday although it was frustrating to see Trustan Times being badly impeded while in the process of running a big race in the Fixed Brush Hurdle on Saturday.  Still, that’s racing for you and we move on.  This week we take a look at a trainer with a fantastic record with his hurdlers and I will tell you where my money is going in the Hennessy Gold Cup on Saturday.

When I started writing this post I was looking for an angle for today’s Doncaster meeting and one trainer that caught my eye was John Quinn.  His record at Doncaster since 2010 is shown below:

Screen Shot 2014-11-27 at 13.21.50

John Quinn has sent out 309 hurdlers in the last 5 seasons compared to 25 chasers and 27 bumper runners.  If we look at the performance of his hurdlers at Doncaster priced 20/1 or shorter the stats look even more impressive:

Screen Shot 2014-11-27 at 13.26.18

That got me thinking about the performance of his hurdlers at other tracks.  He does exceptionally well (strike rate >30%) at many of the Northern tracks, especially Doncaster, Cartmel and Newcastle.  His hurdlers are worth noting at the following tracks:

Ayr, Ascot, Cartmel, Doncaster, Haydock, Hexham, Lingfield, Newbury, Newcastle, Perth, Wetherby and Worcester.  Backing all his hurdlers at these tracks, priced 20/1 or shorter since 2010 would have resulted in the following profits:

Screen Shot 2014-11-27 at 13.27.05

If you want a system with consistency then take a look at the yearly breakdown of John Quinn’s hurdlers at the courses we identified above.

Screen Shot 2014-11-27 at 13.28.01

John Quinn has 2 hurdlers entered at Newcastle on Saturday:

2.05pm Aurore D’Estruval @6/1

3.15pm Zermatt

Saturday also sees the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury and it looks like a terrific renewal.  I have taken a look at the profiles of the previous winners and there are two that tick plenty of boxes.  The two trends horses I will be backing are:

Newbury 3.00pm Smad Place @8/1 and Rocky Creek @10/1

Henderson Debutants System

We have a fellow Daily Punt reader to thank for today’s micro system.

Derek posted the following micro system in the comments yesterday.

Here’s what Derek said…

I use a micro system for Henderson and it’s based on debutants having first run under UK rules. It is based mainly on NH flat and hurdles. I know you use horseracebase so I’ve just cut and pasted my rules.

Here are the rules in plain English as opposed to HRBish!

Henderson Debutants System

National Hunt races.

Run at one of these courses: Ascot, Cheltenham, Chepstow, Doncaster, Exeter, Ffos Las, Fontwell, Kempton, Newbury, Sandown, Stratford, Towcester, Uttoxeter, Wincanton

Race Distance is 2m6f or less

Horse is have it’s first run and is trained by Nicky Henderson.

It’s price is between Evens and 16/1.

It is 6 years old or younger.

And we only bet in the main season between October to March inclusive.

Heres the overall performance since 2003.

Henderson Debutants System

And here’s the breakdown by year

 

Henderson Debutants Yearly Breakdown

Back to Derek…

You will see that it has performed steadily year after year since 2003.

Henderson repeats the same training routine year after year and this has allowed me to have the above and two other micro systems (handicap hurdles and mares) on the man from severn barrows.

Regards

Derek

Excellent, thanks Derek 🙂

Today’s Selection

2.10 Chepstow Jumps Road – win bet – 5/1 Bet 365

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close