Tag Archives: comment

Jumping Propects 2015

Jumping ProspectsToday I’m looking at a book called Jumping Prospects that has been recommended to me.

It is written by racing stalwart John Morris.

The book is priced at £15 and was published late September and is aimed at those who like to follow trainers and also spot a few big priced winners that are under the radar.

There is comprehensive coverage of 21 Trainers along with comments on 475 of the horses in their care.

There are also ‘stable eyecatchers’ at the end of each interview to help you focus on those the author really likes.

Last year’s edition produced 242 winners and included winners at 40/1, 33/1, 25/1 and 20/1.

This is the 23rd edition of the book and clearly offers something that is worthwhile to many.

Here’s the edited highlights of the Amazon blurb…

21 Stable Interviews with various jumps trainers including: Kim Bailey, Ali Stronge, rebecca Curtis, James Ewart, Harry Fry, Warren Greatrex, Anthony Honeyball, Nicky Henderson, Alan King, Emma Lavelle, Charlie Longsdon, Donald McCain, Paul Nicholls, Dr Richard Newland, Ben Pauling, Oliver Sherwood, Dan Skelton, Jamie Snowden, Tom Symonds, Colin Tizzard, Robert Walford.

John says: “Once again I have visited some of the major jumping stables along with other horses that might slip under the radar. The energy you pick up from my stable tour will fuel your betting tank for a long, long time!”

The Jumping Prospects book is guaranteed to uncover many winners during the autumn and winter jumps season.

When you purchase your copy of Jumping Prospects it will pay for YOUR outlay many times over, as it has the answers to future winners likely to appear during the jumps campaign.

You can obtain a copy by visiting http://www.dailypunt.com/jumpingprospects 

Today’s Selection

9.10 Kempton Fiftyshadesofgrey – eachway bet – 11/2 Bet 365

Free System

There’s a lot of hoopla today for a free system give away from a guy called Simon Patton.

So before I get to some more stats for our ongoing system research here is the link for the Simon Patton Meerkat system – http://dailypunt.com/simonpatton

Up In Class System – continued

As I expected it is already getting hard to get meaningful data for this system because of the number of runners that meet the up in class conditions.

The next on my list in order of number of runners that qualify is Miss Venetia Williams.

Miss Williams is well in profit this year with 3 wins from 4 runners, but the last time she was in profit prior to this year for this system was in 2007!

Here is a list of the courses where she has made profit with this system…

Venetia Williams Up In Class Table

If we add those courses to our rules we end up with only 1 bet so far this year and only 5 last year.

Considering this is the second busiest trainer in our initial systems rules then we may be going too deep here and should may be considering a different approach with a wider reach from our base system.

Time for a ponder.

Tell me what you think in the comments.

Today’s Selection

2.15 Worcester Call Me Vic – eachway bet – 11/2 Bet 365

More Up In Class

Following on from yesterday’s research into a possible new National Hunt system we had one comment (thanks Kenny) with suggestions for further research. So today I’ll look into the figures a bit further and see what we can dig up.

First off I looked at race distance for the horses that were up in class for the trainers we selected.

Here’s the data I was returned…

Up In Class by Distance Table

 

From this I can see that some distances have proven to be more profitable than others in the past.

But I can think of no logical reason why some distances would have a higher strike rate and more profit. For example why would 2 mile and 1/2 a furlong races be profitable but 2 mile 1 furlong races not be. It’s only a hundred meters further!

However it’s worth noting that the majority of these race types are 2 mile races, and they are very profitable.

Next I looked at courses, here’s the overall table…

Up In Class by Course Table

 

We can see that some are very profitable and some very unprofitable. I’m sure we could think up reasons why some would be more profitable than others, but I suppose what we really should do is to pick just one of our trainers and break down the data for course and distance for just that trainer and see if we can build a profile for these types of runners for each trainer.

So I’ll put that on my to do list for next week and we’ll see if we can drill down and build a collection of winning profiles.

There’s no bets for the original system idea yet, if you missed it you can read it here

Today’s Selection

3.30 Uttoxeter Carningli – win bet – evens Bet 365

Up In Class System

Today’s article is a bit last minute because the regular Wednesday post has been delayed, so apologies if it lacks a little polish.

I’ve been looking back through my National Hunt systems to see what we can use this year and I’ve been experimenting with the notion of horses winning when they move up in class.

Basically I’ve taken a system that had a bad year and played about with it to see who did profit from the angle in question.

I’ve not finished with it yet and don’t know if this is a goer but here’s what I’ve got so far.

We’re looking at Beginner and Novice National Hunt races and specifically at 4 and 5 year olds moving up in class.

And at the moment I am drilling down to find which trainers are profitable with these horses.

Here’s the list of trainers I have that have profited…

Crook, A
Dickin, R
Egerton, C R
Ferguson, J P
Henderson, N J
Johnson, J Howard
Keane, D P
King, N B
Lavelle, Miss E C
Llewellyn, Carl
McCain, D
Walton, Mrs K
West, Miss Sheena
Williams, Miss Venetia

Some well known and some not so much.

The 2013 results for horses sent out by these trainers in beginner type races is as follows…

Runs = 97
Wins = 19
Strike Rate = 20%
Profit at iSP = 68.58
ROI at iSP = 70.7%

In 2014 so far it’s…

Runs = 42
Wins = 9
Strike Rate = 21%
Profit at iSP = 76.72
ROI at iSP = 182.67%

I don’t know if I’m onto something with this or am just reporting something that happened in the past, but I’ll keep working at it and see what selections this initial idea throws up.

Got an idea to improve it? Post it in the comments 😉

Today’s Selection

5.35 Wetherby Mr Moonshine – eachway bet – 13/2 Bet 365

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close