Tag Archives: concept

Bet on Goals

I recently heard about this housewife gambler who is making good steady long term gains from football betting. Specifically betting on the over 2.5 goals market.

So I made contact with Louise and she agreed to write an article for us on why she bets in the over 2.5 goals market and why you should to.

Why You Should Consider Betting On Goals

Betting on the number of goals in a game allows you to win money without having to predict who will actually win the match. Typically that means betting over or under 2.5 goals at the outset of most games.

From a strategy point of view it is a style of betting that has both pros and cons, and a bet that will split the crowd amongst professional punters.

Some pros moan that it is hard enough predicting where the goals are likely to come from without worrying about how many goals you’ll see.

For people like me, looking at the number of goals produced per match is a much more reliable – and profitable – strategy than predicting who will score them.

I am a woman, clearly. I am a working mother of two and a maths graduate.

I can’t profess to be a football expert but what I do have though, is something that many so-called experts don’t have – a genuinely mathematical mind, and a degree to prove it.

My profitable betting, which I now share with my subscribers, takes advantage of the maths-based match analysis methods I have developed for use in the football goals betting markets – specifically Over 2.5 match goals.

What I like about this market is that, not only are goals ‘good’ from a predictive point of view but also that the bookmaker’s overround is less crippling than it is in other markets such as say 1X2, HT-FT or an antepost market like say the winner of The Grand National or The Champions League.

The overround is a very important concept in betting. It ensures bookies make a profit regardless of the outcome of an event and is the foundation of a bookie’s business. The concept bookmakers use to do this is simple, they offer all bettors lower odds than those they believe an outcome is truly worth. The overround is expressed as a percentage, with a 100% book representing a market where the bookmaker has no margin whatsoever. The higher the overround percentage is then the bigger profit is for the bookmakers. If the percentage goes below 100% then the bookmaker stands to lose money.

For example, if the over-round is 120% the bookmaker will expect to pay out £100 for every £120 pounds they take in, yielding them an expected profit of 20/120 = 16.7%.

With fixed odds for three possible outcomes in a football match bet – the home win, draw, and away win – a typical overround is between 107% to 112%. Indeed some Internet firms can go as high as 118% for games in obscure football leagues where they fear that individual punters can carry a far greater edge than their hard-pressed compilers.

As a rule of thumb, the greater the number of possible result permutations within a sporting event (or within one of its constituent parts, such as a scoreline), then the greater the bookmaker's overround will be.

A correct score bet in football can have as many as 24 possible options on which to bet. A typical overround for this type of bet may be anything from 130%-160%, depending on the bookmaker. You’d probably find something similar in a competitive big field horse race such as The Grand National.

In contrast to correct score betting, total goals betting in football, where there are only two possible outcomes (over 2.5 goals or under 2.5 goals), attracts overrounds that are commonly less than 110% and sometimes as low as 102% for a Premiership game, say, where the bookies are actively looking to attract a high volume of business.

The name of the game in betting is to minimise the bookmakers’ advantage at all times while playing up the impact of the things that are in your favour whether that’s stats, a value model like mine, or local knowledge about teams and players that can impact on a result.

With that in mind betting opportunities with just two potential outcomes are always worth looking at as both the strike rate and potential returns can be excellent for those with a demonstrable edge.

If you can get your head around betting on goals then the over 2.5 goals market is absolutely one of the best betting opportunities that currently exists.

Louise' Soccer Tips service has a number of selections for this weekends footy action and I have included one for you here…

League – England Premier
Kick Off Time – Saturday 1st November 12:45
Teams & Selection – Newcastle v Liverpool OVER 2.5
Prices Available – 1.78 Betvictor Pinnacle – 1.76 Marathonbet 188Bet – 1.73 Bet365 Sbobet Boylesports
Stake – 1.5pts
Oddsportal Link
After the number crunching on this game I reckon the true odds price to be around 1.60

To join Soccer Tips or to find out more about Louise and her service go to www.soccer-tip.co.uk

Today's Selection

2.40 Stratford Summer Storm – win bet – 13/8 Boylesports

Value Betting Part 1

Today we kick off a five part series of articles looking at value betting and culminating with a method for finding value bets.

The articles have been written by Kieran Ward, professional gambler, tipster and betting blogger over at www.makeyourbettingpay.co.uk

Take it from me, you won’t be able to turn a regular consistent profit from your betting until you fully grasp the concept of value and start applying its principles to every single bet you place.

I literally cannot stress enough how important it is to understand and seek out value in all of your betting. It is, by far and away, the most important factor in profitable betting!

The only way you can make profit from betting in the long term is to ensure that you are getting value prices about your bets. If not, you are doomed to failure. It is that simple.

Amazingly, there are plenty of people out there who will tell you that finding winners is the only important thing. Anybody who tells you that is showing such staggering naivety (and inability to perform the simplest of calculations) that I need to meet them immediately and start offering them some wagers!

The ‘Hole in One’ gang are a great example of finding a value proposition and exploiting it ruthlessly. It’s a famous story but I think it bears a re-telling here.

The ‘Hole in One’ gang operated very successfully for a short time in the early 90s. They were 2 gamblers by the names of Paul Simons and John Carter who, through detailed study of past results, came to realise that the occurrence of a hole in one in professional golf, far from being a freakish, rare event was actually exceptionally common.

They calculated that the true odds of a hole in one being scored in one of golf’s majors are shorter than even money.

They were staggered to discover that large numbers of independent bookmakers were simply not doing their homework and were prepared to offer them ludicrous odds about a hole in one – up to 100/1 in some cases!

They toured the country surreptitiously placing bets in singles, doubles, trebles and accumulators for a hole in one to be scored in the majors, taking all prices from 3/1 upwards. By the time they were finished, they had plunged their entire lives savings of around £40,000 into a multitude of bets.

The rest is history. A hole in one was scored in most, if not all, of the majors that year and the gang’s winnings totalled somewhere in the region of £500,000. (Some of the bookmakers subsequently welched on the wagers and they eventually collected around £420,000).

£420,000 – all for doing a very simple piece of research and realising that the odds available were offering a ludicrous level of value!

Now clearly value opportunities of such magnitude (particularly on such a probable event) don’t arise everyday but you would be surprised just how often decent value opportunities do occur – particularly in horse racing where bookmakers have to assess an almost infinite set of factors in formulating their prices.

Tomorrow, I will define what I mean by ‘value betting’ and work through some examples to show just how important it is.

Today's selection

Wolverhampton 5.35 Follow The Flag – each way bet – 7/1 Victor Chandler

Each Way Value Explained

Following on from yesterday I thought I'd continue the each way them today with a re-run of an article we published a year ago.

These each way words of wisdom were written for us by Paul Ruffy, who runs a profitable each way tipping service…

So what is an each way bet?

It’s a bet traditionally offered by UK bookmakers consisting of two parts: a win bet and a place bet.

For the win part to give a return the selection must win, for the place part to win the selection must either win or finish in one of the predetermined places, i.e. 2nd or 3rd.

Your stake for an each way bet will be the same on both parts, so if you bet “£5 each way”, you are betting £5 win and £5 to place – a total of £10.
That’s the simple stuff out of the way.

So let’s talk value.

To bet at value you essentially need to be placing bets at bigger odds than what the true chances dictate the odds should be.

Of course finding out what the true chances of something occurring isn’t an exact science.

Therefore it simply comes down to a matter of identifying “perceived value”.

With an each way bet we need to evaluate both the win odds AND the place odds to get an idea of how the prices stack up against our ideas of a value price.

Opportunities arise with each way betting because the place price offered against a horse is a fixed fraction (normally a fifth or a quarter) of its win price.

The win price is most likely a fair representation of its chances of winning.

But simply dividing it by 5 doesn't mean the place price is representative of it's chance of placing!

People have misconceptions that say that betting each way at odds under 5/1 represents a poor bet.

And often horses quoted around 25/1 are touted as great each way bets, on the basis that the place pays around 5/1.

I’d suggest to you that ANY price can represent each way value.

Whether its 10/1 or 10/11.

The calculation that most people do before placing an each way bet is to work out their returns should the horse only place.

So a horse placing at 4/1 (1/5 place odds) would give a return of £9 from a £5 each way bet – a loss of £1 overall.

To look at this potential loss in isolation is to look at each way betting from a narrow and blinkered angle.

One that is entirely wrong in my opinion.

Lets assume that the horse in question is actually a true 4/1 shot (therefore it’d win one in five on average).

Buts lets also assume that there is very little else other than the first three in the betting with any real form.

And therefore that it would place on average 80% of the time.

Finding 10 bets like this could easily give the following results from £5 each way bets:

4/1 unplaced -£10
4/1 3rd -£1
4/1 2nd -£1
4/1 Won +£24
4/1 2nd -£1
4/1 2nd -£1
4/1 unplaced -£10
4/1 3rd -£1
4/1 2nd -£1
4/1 Won +£24
Total P/L +£22

Remember this is a true 4/1 shot, so it would only ever be a break even situation betting win only. But because of the favourable place terms, we’ve turned a break even series of bets, into a winning one.

Of course finding horses that have about 80% chance of placing yet can be backed at 4/1 each way do not come up everyday, but they do come up more often than you might think.

Two obvious places you might find instances where the place odds make each way betting favourable are 8 or 9 runner races with an odds-on favourite and 16 runner handicaps.

The principle is the same whatever the race though.

It is comparing the each way place price against the actual chances that will reveal the true value of an each way bet.

There's a couple of races today that look like they might provide some each way value.

Catterick 12.40

This race has a 1/7 Favourite in Cockney Sparrow. She certainly looks a class above these but she was not fluent with her jumping last time out. The second favourite Miss Conduct looks a class above the remainder and she looks certain to place and value at 8/1 (Bet 365) each way.

Lingfield 1.25

This race has now had one withdrawn since I started writing and is down to 7 runners and so it no longer fits the profile.

Today's Selection

Catterick 12.40 Miss Conduct – each way bet – 8/1 Bet 365

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