Tag Archives: crowd

Bet on Goals

I recently heard about this housewife gambler who is making good steady long term gains from football betting. Specifically betting on the over 2.5 goals market.

So I made contact with Louise and she agreed to write an article for us on why she bets in the over 2.5 goals market and why you should to.

Why You Should Consider Betting On Goals

Betting on the number of goals in a game allows you to win money without having to predict who will actually win the match. Typically that means betting over or under 2.5 goals at the outset of most games.

From a strategy point of view it is a style of betting that has both pros and cons, and a bet that will split the crowd amongst professional punters.

Some pros moan that it is hard enough predicting where the goals are likely to come from without worrying about how many goals you’ll see.

For people like me, looking at the number of goals produced per match is a much more reliable – and profitable – strategy than predicting who will score them.

I am a woman, clearly. I am a working mother of two and a maths graduate.

I can’t profess to be a football expert but what I do have though, is something that many so-called experts don’t have – a genuinely mathematical mind, and a degree to prove it.

My profitable betting, which I now share with my subscribers, takes advantage of the maths-based match analysis methods I have developed for use in the football goals betting markets – specifically Over 2.5 match goals.

What I like about this market is that, not only are goals ‘good’ from a predictive point of view but also that the bookmaker’s overround is less crippling than it is in other markets such as say 1X2, HT-FT or an antepost market like say the winner of The Grand National or The Champions League.

The overround is a very important concept in betting. It ensures bookies make a profit regardless of the outcome of an event and is the foundation of a bookie’s business. The concept bookmakers use to do this is simple, they offer all bettors lower odds than those they believe an outcome is truly worth. The overround is expressed as a percentage, with a 100% book representing a market where the bookmaker has no margin whatsoever. The higher the overround percentage is then the bigger profit is for the bookmakers. If the percentage goes below 100% then the bookmaker stands to lose money.

For example, if the over-round is 120% the bookmaker will expect to pay out £100 for every £120 pounds they take in, yielding them an expected profit of 20/120 = 16.7%.

With fixed odds for three possible outcomes in a football match bet – the home win, draw, and away win – a typical overround is between 107% to 112%. Indeed some Internet firms can go as high as 118% for games in obscure football leagues where they fear that individual punters can carry a far greater edge than their hard-pressed compilers.

As a rule of thumb, the greater the number of possible result permutations within a sporting event (or within one of its constituent parts, such as a scoreline), then the greater the bookmaker's overround will be.

A correct score bet in football can have as many as 24 possible options on which to bet. A typical overround for this type of bet may be anything from 130%-160%, depending on the bookmaker. You’d probably find something similar in a competitive big field horse race such as The Grand National.

In contrast to correct score betting, total goals betting in football, where there are only two possible outcomes (over 2.5 goals or under 2.5 goals), attracts overrounds that are commonly less than 110% and sometimes as low as 102% for a Premiership game, say, where the bookies are actively looking to attract a high volume of business.

The name of the game in betting is to minimise the bookmakers’ advantage at all times while playing up the impact of the things that are in your favour whether that’s stats, a value model like mine, or local knowledge about teams and players that can impact on a result.

With that in mind betting opportunities with just two potential outcomes are always worth looking at as both the strike rate and potential returns can be excellent for those with a demonstrable edge.

If you can get your head around betting on goals then the over 2.5 goals market is absolutely one of the best betting opportunities that currently exists.

Louise' Soccer Tips service has a number of selections for this weekends footy action and I have included one for you here…

League – England Premier
Kick Off Time – Saturday 1st November 12:45
Teams & Selection – Newcastle v Liverpool OVER 2.5
Prices Available – 1.78 Betvictor Pinnacle – 1.76 Marathonbet 188Bet – 1.73 Bet365 Sbobet Boylesports
Stake – 1.5pts
Oddsportal Link
After the number crunching on this game I reckon the true odds price to be around 1.60

To join Soccer Tips or to find out more about Louise and her service go to www.soccer-tip.co.uk

Today's Selection

2.40 Stratford Summer Storm – win bet – 13/8 Boylesports

Longest Losing Run

Smart SiggerI've just been catching up with my reading, with this months Smart Sigger magazine.

This months issue includes Ebor Handicap Trends, a piece on the wisdom of crowds that looks at why starting prices reflect the true chance of a horse, a continuation of their implementation of a Bayes Theorem method. A system for betting debutantes in handicaps and an interesting piece about why you shouldnt always use past results as an indication of future performance.

But the piece I want to talk about today is a discussion of whether you are a gambler or an investor, which provided a reminder of the formula that you can use to calculate your longest expected losing run.

I think we have published this formula before but it's always worthwhile to revisit important fundamentals.

The gist of the article was that if you dont stake your bets consistently with your longest expected losing run then you are a gambler not an investor.

The formula for working out the longest expected losing run for a given strike rate is

LOG(Number of selections)/-LOG(1-Strike Rate)

If, like me you no longer have your log tables to hand, then you will need to use Excel or something similar to make the calculation.

By way of an example lets assume that we expect to make 400 bets this season and that the methods we use have a strike rate of 20%.

The 20% has to be converted to a decimal number, so we divide by 100 to give 0.20.

So the calculation is

LOG(400)/-LOG(1-0.20) = 26.85

So with a 20% strike rate over 400 bets we can expect a losing run of between 26 and 27.

Eddie Lloyd who wrote the piece goes on to state that if you intend to be an investor and not a gambler you had better have a bank and a stake size that can cope with the losing runs you can expect.

You can get your first issue of Smart Sigger for free – Click Here

Today's Selection

Lingfield 6.35 O Gorman – eachway bet – 13/2 Bet Victor

 

Pricewise

I'm a bit behind with my reading at the moment, but I've just started reading the March edition of SmartSigger.

The first thing that has caught my eye this month is an article about not following Racing Post selections and how you will lose money of you do!

Here are some key facts from the article that might make you think twice before backing a Racing Post tip…

The Racing Post’s has, on average, 46,871 people buying the paper everyday and averages 1.2 million unique users to their website every month. This equates to around 42,857 people per day.

Around 30% will be cross over according to the their advertising information. This means that nearly 76,000 unique people are reading the paper and, according to further figures, 31% of them bet everyday.

The average income per household is in excess of £50,000 per annum. On that basis
we will assume that those that bet everyday can afford at least a £10 bet per horse.

That is £235,600 being bet into a market, more often than not on the same horse.

The thing is about the Racing Post selections is that the bookies know what they are before you do.

They also know that these will be the horses that take the most money and so they can shorten their prices on these horses, to make sure that they are not giving value on the most popular horses.

But what this does mean is that if you go against the Racing Post you are almost certainly getting better value in your bets.

This is why services like Value Backing and Value Seeker are profitable, because they will not bet on the Racing Post selections, because there is no value.

Here's some facts about Pricewise from SmartSigger…

From a sample of 330 bets taken from last year, his (Pricewise) strike rate was 12.4% and to advised prices was 11 points in profit.

However, to SP he showed a 50 point loss. That’s a hell of a difference and serves to illustrate how once in the media’s grasp we should be avoiding these horses like the plague.

Clever punters will let the crowd pile in on the Pricewise horse and then invest in an alternative or lay the Pricewise horse just before the off 🙂

You can read the full SmartSigger article in this months issue here.

Today's Selection

Southwell 3.25 Doldrums – win bet 5/2 Paddy Power, Bet Victor

Value Handicap Bets

I was at a bit of a loss as to what to write about today.

So I've decided to share some data from research that I'm doing to find new betting opportunities for myself.

As we've probably mentioned here before, it is widely considered that Betfair Starting Prices reflect the true price of the majority of horses. Which means there is no value to be had if you are betting at the off.

My view is that if you know something that the crowd doesn't then there is always value, but nevertheless it is easier to profit by having your own view and using early prices than it is from following the markets.

So with that in mind I'm looking for ways to identify horses that are over priced in the morning markets.

There are various different strands I'm following but today I'm looking at horses that are running in handicaps that are running off a mark that is lower than their last winning mark.

The idea being that a handicap is a race where theoretically all horses should be weighted to have an equal chance of winning.

And I'm looking at horses that are running off of a mark that they can win at.

At the moment I don't really have a strategy and am just gathering data and with multiple qualifiers in each race there needs to be further qualifications.

But for interest I have pasted today all horses that meet the current criteria along with the best price as of 9.45 this morning.

18:30:00 Lingfield Cornish Beau (IRE) 14
18:30:00 Lingfield Mayan Flight (IRE) 8
19:00:00 Lingfield Lady Barastar (IRE) 12
19:00:00 Lingfield Lightning Spirit 8
19:00:00 Lingfield Missionaire (USA) 12
19:00:00 Lingfield Walter De La Mare (IRE) 33
20:00:00 Lingfield Restless Bay (IRE) 12
20:00:00 Lingfield Song Of Parkes 20
20:30:00 Lingfield Cyflymder (IRE) 15/2
20:30:00 Lingfield Hatta Stream (IRE) 20
20:30:00 Lingfield Perfect Pastime 25
20:30:00 Lingfield Rigolleto (IRE) 25
20:30:00 Lingfield Tevez 20
20:30:00 Lingfield Titan Triumph 8
21:00:00 Lingfield Magique (IRE) 12
16:05:00 Salisbury Club House (IRE) 25
16:05:00 Salisbury Girl Of Cadiz 8
16:05:00 Salisbury Pippy 9/2
17:05:00 Salisbury El Libertador (USA) 25
17:05:00 Salisbury Gold Mine 5/4
17:05:00 Salisbury Grace And Beauty (IRE) 50
17:05:00 Salisbury Nave (USA) 9/2
17:05:00 Salisbury Sherman McCoy 12
17:35:00 Salisbury Haadeeth 9
17:35:00 Salisbury Judd Street 20
17:35:00 Salisbury My Learned Friend (IRE) 20
17:35:00 Salisbury The Name Is Frank 8

I'm interested not only in how they perform, but also in where the prices end up.

As always if you have any thoughts or if you use similar strategies then tell me in the comments.

Today's Selection courtesy of Racing day pro – Winning Information Network

15:50 Fontwell Border Station – each way bet – 13/2 Bet 365, Bet Victor, Boylesport

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