Tag Archives: guarantee

Green Up: How To Calculate Your Stakes

The first thing to say is that when this article was first written there was no cash out button on Betfair, so life is easier if you just want to lock in a profit and green up on a horse you've bet, no calculator required.

But you should know the maths and how to calculate your own stakes and that's what we cover on this page.

Yesterday Pete asked how do we calculate our stakes when we have made a trade and we want to green up.

So Pete has backed a horse that is shortening in price and he wants to green up on that selection. IE lock in a profit whatever the outcome.

If for example you were lucky or smart enough to get on Shaws Diamond yesterday morning you could have bet it at around 16.0.

This mare started with a Betfair SP of 6.64. (Easier to find these green up opportunities in hindsight!!)

So let's say you had a back bet for £10 at 16.0 in the morning and it's just before the off and your horse is now trading at 6.8.

You want to lock in a profit on Shaw's Diamond and want to know what stake to lay at 6.8.

The calculation is to multiply your initial stake times your initial back odds (£10 x 16.0 = £160)

You then divide that by the lay price that you can get (£160/6.8 = £23.52)

Place your lay of £23.52 at 6.8 and your initial bet of £10 has now converted to a guaranteed payout of £12.84.

I mentioned a while back that a lot of serious backers don't wait for a selection to win these days.

Instead they lock in a profit once their horse trades down to a certain level and then lock in the profit.

This method is great for predetermined trades or for when you have time to calculate the stake.

When the pressure is on you might prefer to use software that can make the bet in the click of a button 🙂

If you want to it the other way around. So say you have one that's drifting and you lay a tenner at 6.8 and now can back it at 16.0.

Multiply your lay price by your lay stake (£10 x 6.8 = £68) and then divide that by your new odds (£68/16.0 = £4.25).

Back your selection for £4.25 at 16.0 and lock in a £5.46 profit.

A final note: It's easier to find steamers just listen to the pundits and check out free tipsters. Also you risk less money in the initial bet and get a better profit on the green up.

(Green Up: Common parlance for a guaranteed profit on Betfair where every selection shows it will profit if that selection win)

More Henderson Hurdlers

So yesterday we discovered that the profit in the last two years from Nicky Henderson's hurdlers all came from just two jockeys.

Today I want to look at race courses to see if the profit is coming from favoured tracks and first off I'm going to look only at the rides of Barry Geraghty.

The reason for this is that he takes the majority of the rides at the Henderson yard and if we could find some profit from his rides we would have a larger sample.

The trouble, I imagine, when you are a stable jockey is that you ride everything that you are available for so that has to include a lot of horses that have little chance of winning.

So what we need is some other indicator of when a horse has a chance because I'm sure Barry is as good as McCoy, but McCoy is called in when an owner wants somebody special, so that is an indicator itself that the horse has a solid chance.

I don't think that particular race tracks is the key we're looking for to unlock the profits from Barry Geraghty rides, so if you have a suggestion on what might be then drop it in the comments.

But for now we'll look at courses and see where that gets us.

The table below shows Barry Geraghty rides on Nicky Henderson trained hurdlers since January 2013 broken down by course and only showing those where there have been more than 10 runs.

Barry Geraghty by Course Table

 

Ok we can see that there are very impressive strike rates at the bottom four courses and strong profits at three of those so maybe that is a system itself?

Next I'm going to look at courses for all jockeys.

 

Henderson Hurdlers by Course Table

 

Now we see profit at Bangor, Doncaster, Huntingdon, Kempton, Sandown, Stratford and Uttoxeter (just).

Most of the profit comes from the same tracks with the additions having either small volume or small profit.

So I'm going to finish off today by telling you that since January 1st 2013 backing all Nicky Henderson hurdlers at Doncaster Kempton and Sandown would have produced a 30% strike rate from 111 bets and a huge 60% return on investment.

As they say in the finance adverts past results are not a guarantee of future gains or some such disclaimer, but I will be monitoring the Henderson hurdlers at these courses going forward.

Today's Selection

12.40 Southwell Bitaphon – win bet – 9/2 Betfred

Jumping Propects 2015

Jumping ProspectsToday I'm looking at a book called Jumping Prospects that has been recommended to me.

It is written by racing stalwart John Morris.

The book is priced at £15 and was published late September and is aimed at those who like to follow trainers and also spot a few big priced winners that are under the radar.

There is comprehensive coverage of 21 Trainers along with comments on 475 of the horses in their care.

There are also ‘stable eyecatchers’ at the end of each interview to help you focus on those the author really likes.

Last year’s edition produced 242 winners and included winners at 40/1, 33/1, 25/1 and 20/1.

This is the 23rd edition of the book and clearly offers something that is worthwhile to many.

Here's the edited highlights of the Amazon blurb…

21 Stable Interviews with various jumps trainers including: Kim Bailey, Ali Stronge, rebecca Curtis, James Ewart, Harry Fry, Warren Greatrex, Anthony Honeyball, Nicky Henderson, Alan King, Emma Lavelle, Charlie Longsdon, Donald McCain, Paul Nicholls, Dr Richard Newland, Ben Pauling, Oliver Sherwood, Dan Skelton, Jamie Snowden, Tom Symonds, Colin Tizzard, Robert Walford.

John says: “Once again I have visited some of the major jumping stables along with other horses that might slip under the radar. The energy you pick up from my stable tour will fuel your betting tank for a long, long time!”

The Jumping Prospects book is guaranteed to uncover many winners during the autumn and winter jumps season.

When you purchase your copy of Jumping Prospects it will pay for YOUR outlay many times over, as it has the answers to future winners likely to appear during the jumps campaign.

You can obtain a copy by visiting http://www.dailypunt.com/jumpingprospects 

Today's Selection

9.10 Kempton Fiftyshadesofgrey – eachway bet – 11/2 Bet 365

Cesarewitch Tips

Today we have our weekly look at the weekends racing action from Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders (http://dailypunt.com/nickhardman)

Nick has set us up with some nice winners this season and today he tries to find us the winner of the Cesarewitch to add to his tally…

Last week we highlighted in-form trainer Charlie Longsdon. He bagged us a winner that day and has followed up with another in midweek. He is still a trainer I want to keep on-side in the early part of the season and he sends a few runners to Carlisle today.

He has a decent strike rate at the track too with 6 winners from 19 runners. He has the following entries on Friday:

Charlie Longsdon Carlisle runners Friday 10/10/2014

3.10pm Drop Out Joe
3.45pm Orange Nassau
4.20pm Simply The West
5.20pm Deadly Move

Cesarewitch Tips

On to Saturday and we have the last of the big handicaps in the Cesarewitch.

Having already landed the Ebor and Cambridgeshire it is a tall order to land the hat-trick but I wouldn’t be doing my job if I didn’t at least share my thoughts.

This race has gone to some big priced winners in recent times including winners at 66/1, 66/1 and 25/1 in the last three renewals.

Weight and official ratings do not tell us much regarding potential winners but, with the exception of Scatter Dice last year, the previous 10 winners had winning form over 2m or further.

Hurdlers have finished in the top two in 13 of the last 17 renewals. Other strong trends include a top 4 finish last time out and no more than 7 runs in the season. That helps reduce the field to 9.

One who ticks plenty of boxes is Big Easy for Philip Hobbs and the trainer knows what it take to win this having done so with Detroit City in 2006.

Big Easy looks to have solid credentials having finished runner-up in the trial race 3 weeks ago. That was his first flat run of the season and he should come on bundle for the run and he has a nice draw in stall 2.

Another who is guaranteed to stay is Chester Cup winner Suegioo. He last two runs have been over trips shorter than 2 miles and I think he will relish every yard of this trip. He was also a fine 2nd in the Northumberland Plate over 2 miles and that race is a good pointer for horses who run well in the Cesarewitch.

Another with solid prospects is Swnymor who has to turn the form around with hotpot favourite Quick Jack, but he takes him on here on much better terms (16lbs better to be exact).

My only concern is his wide draw in stall 34 but with several bookmakers paying 6 places he is still worth an each-way interest.

If you fancy taking something at a bigger price then the ultra-consistent Noble Silk, a good 4th in the Northumberland Plate, should give you a run for your money 33/1.

Nicky Henderson trained the winner of this in 2008 and Kieron Fallon rode the winner in 2012. They team up on Earth Amber @33/1 and any rain would help his cause, although he is another from our short list who has been done no favours by the draw (stall 33).

Saturday Newmarket 3.50pm

Trends horses: Big Easy @12/1 & Suegioo @16/1

Alternatives: Swnymor @16/1, Earth Amber @33/1 & Noble Silk @33/1

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