Tag Archives: jumps

Racing Tips – Nick Hardman

Today we have my favourite column of the week, the Nick Hardman – Betting Insiders column.

Before I hand you over to Nick just to mention that there is a qualifier from the Tongue Tie system, which we are paper trading currently and that's 16:15 Sandown Paddy The Stout.

If you enjoy Nick's columns as much as I do then do check out the Betting School Insiders Club where you can enjoy more of his wisdom.

Here's Nick…

We have jumps racing at Fakenham and Sandown today and Nicky Henderson’s runners might be worth a second look in the betting markets given his record at both tracks.

Since January 2011 he has sent 30 runners to Fakenham and 13 have won. However, backing each of those runners to level stakes would have resulted in a very small loss at SP.

Dig a little deeper and we find that his Fakenham runners are 1-6 in chases, 8-19 in hurdles races and 4-5 in bumper races.

Taking a closer look at the hurdlers we find they are 5-10 in novice races, 2-5 in maiden races and 1-4 in handicaps.

He has the following entries at the time of writing:

1.45 Medieval Chapel (Beginners’ Chase)
3.25pm Clean Sheet (Novices’ Hurdle)
4.35pm Clemency (Mares’ NH Flat Race)

At Sandown, Nicky Henderson has had 35 winners from 145 runners in the last 5 years at a strike rate of 24% and shows a level stakes profit of £36.07.

His hurdlers are 26-95 (27% strike rate) and show a profit of £47.72.

He has won with 8 of his last 18 hurdlers at the course for a profit of £27.69.

The Barry Geraghty/ Nicky Henderson partnership has teamed up for 17 hurdle winners at Sandown from 42 runners at an impressive strike rate of 41% and a level stakes profit of £41.12.

Nicky Henderson has the following entries at Sandown today:

2.30pm Broxbourne (Geraghty) & Hel Tara (Mares’ Novice Hurdle)

One of the feature races of the weekend is the Grand National Trial at Haydock.

Last Friday our trends analysis identified Violet Dancer as a likely candidate for the Betfair Hurdle and I am hoping for more of the same this weekend.

The key trends are a win over 3m or further, aged 9yo – 11yo, not raced in the last 31 days, raced over 3m 5f or further, a top two finish LTO and trained by Paul Nicholls, Lucinda Russell or Venetia Williams.

In addition, only 3 winners since 1997 have carried more than 11st to victory on soft or heavy going.

There is one horse who ticks all the trends boxes apart from the trainer box and that is Harry The Viking.

He has not won since his novice days from where he went on to finish runner-up to Teaforthree in the National Hunt Chase at the 2012 Cheltenham Festival.

That run earned him a rating of 143 and he competed in the Scottish National, The Hennessy and the Grand National after that.

However, he failed to build on that early promise and his mark plummeted to 122.

Off that mark he ran his best race in a long time when runner-up to Lie Forrit last time out when 2lbs out of the handicap. He has been raised just 2lbs for that effort.

Haydock Grand National Trial – Harry The Viking @20/1 (e/w)

At that price he would be the biggest winner since Rambling Minster @18/1 in 2009 but Rigadin De Beauchene won this @16/1 last year and 8 of the last 12 winners returned SPs of 10/1 or higher.

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Drifters – Good or Bad

Today's pearl of wisdom has been inspired by a bet on the Racing Consultants (http://racingconsultants.co.uk) tipping service last week.

This bet has been the talk of the office because we got so many emails and opinions in about it.

Basically last Thursday David Massey posted up four bets

Today

7.15 Kempton – 1pt win Taaresh (8-1 Bet Victor, Paddy Power, W Hill and others)

7.45 Kempton – 1pt e/w Tevez (9-1 Skybet, Stan James, Coral)

2.15 Wincanton – 1.5pts win Silver Commander (at 6.6 and above Betfair)

2.15 Wincanton – 2pts lay Silver Commander at 2.76 in running.

4.5pts staked

The one that caused the fuss was Taaresh, this is what David wrote as his reasons for making the selection.

An angle we like to use on a regular basis is a horse that's improved or refound it's form over jumps that then reverts to the Flat with a mark that looks on the low side, and Kevin Morgan's evergreen TAARESH fits that bill nicely here. Winner of a competitive 0-120 at Worcester that's worked out quite well, he followed that up with a win off 7lb higher and in better class at Wincanton, a sign that he's clearly in good heart at the moment. Upped in class again for his latest start at Musselburgh, he was far from disgraced in finishing fifth, just getting outpaced in the last quarter of a mile. Back on the Flat and in a low grade handicap, he looks well treated off just 70 here and as a C&D winner for Joe Fanning in the past, has no issue with the conditions either. A slight worry we have is the lack of pace in the race, but that is only a minor one, as he does travel well in his races and isn't short of pace should it turn into a burn up in the straight.

You'll note that the price available at the time the bet was posted was 8/1.

By race time he opened up at 16/1 and drifted out to 25/1!

So the question is, if you hadn't already had your bet placed and a top service tipped you a horse at 8/1 that was now 16/1 and drifting to 20's then 25's would you have bet it?

And would you still have your full stake on it?

Or would you assume that it had no chance because of the price and not bet only to watch it win.

So many people will not bet a horse that drifts because they see it as a negative sign.

Gamblers who make money from their betting would see it as a good sign that they are getting extra value!

My advice is if there is sound reasoning as to why a horse should be a selection then your only concern with the price is that you get the best price that you can.

As I've used Racing Consultants as an example I should mention that the service has now been live for 6 month and every month has been a profitable month with a total profit of £1784.50 to £10 stakes. Which is pretty good for a service that costs just £30 per month. http://racingconsultants.co.uk

Today's Selection

4.10 Kempton Zman Awal – win bet 2/1 Paddy Power

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Friday Tip

Unfortunately our regular Friday contributor Nick Hardman unavoidably unable to write for us this week.

So what I've done is to call around the team and collected you a couple of tips from two of our top services, along with the analysis and reasoning for the selections to give you an idea of why the selections have been made.

First up are the Racing Consultants, you can find out more about the Racing Consultants and get the rest of their selections when you join them here http://racingconsultants.co.uk

12.35 Newc – 1.5pts win Lord Brendy @ 7/1

Poor Lord Brendy almost bought the farm at Sedgefield last time, and he gave Kenny Johnson a shocking fall in the process, which most will take as a negative to his chances today.

I can’t agree, and while it’s debatable whether a heavy fall will affect a horse’s confidence (analysis of results suggests it doesn’t), the key here is that the talented Lord Brendy hasn’t always been seen to maximum effect under his regular rider, and is likely to show more now his connection with the weighing-room veteran is temporarily severed.

Johnson was once amateur champion, but the fact that his earliest winners over jumps predate the Racing Post’s database gives an idea of how senior he is. Peter Buchanan takes over today, and I expect that to coincide with an upturn in form.

And second we have Gary Poole of Bookies Enemy No 1, you can find out more about the Bookies Enemy No 1 and get the rest of Gary's selections when you join here http://bookiesenemyno1.com

6.00 Wolverhampton – Under Review – Win Bet

Synonym should take all the beating if taking to the tapeta surface now he has his confidence back after being brought down on his maiden run.

But a decent looking e/w bet comes in the form of Under Review who looked to be coming back to form here last time over and inadequate 5f where he was picking up well down the unfavoured part of the track by the rail.

All his 4 wins bar one have been over this 6f trip off much higher marks and as long as that last race wasn't just a flash in the pan then he should go well.

Edit:Synonym now a non-runner so win bet instead of e/w.

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Trends and Tips

Here's our regular Friday column from the excellent Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders (https://dailypunt.com/nickhardman )

Goldencents (adv 5/4) and Lady Eli (adv 13/2) got us off to a flyer last weekend, the latter putting in an awesome display of speed to win going away from the field.

We followed that up on Saturday with Aurore D’Estruval annihilating her small field. She was widely available at 11/8 before being backed into odds-on favouritism.

This week we will take a trends look at the November handicap from Doncaster and a quick preview of the Wentworth Stakes and Badger Ales Trophy. First we focus on a trainer with an impressive strike rate at Musselburgh.

The man in question is Donald McCain Jr. He has had more winners at Musselburgh over the jumps than any other trainer in the last 5 years.

His 29 winners have come from 102 runners at a strike rate of 28% and a level stakes profit of £32.25.

His handicap hurdlers at Musselburgh underperform compared to his other runners (2-29, 7% strike rate; level stakes loss -£22.75).

If we remove those runners then his stats look like this:

D. McCain Jr – chase, bumper and non-handicap hurdle runners at Musselburgh 2010 – 2014:

Runners: 73
Winners: 27
Strike Rate: 37%
Level stakes profit: £55.00

He has the following runners this Friday up at Musselburgh:

1.00pm Al Musheer (Juvenile Hurdle)
1.30pm Master Dee (Maiden Hurdle)
2.30pm Welsh Bard (Handicap Chase)
4.00pm Gingili (NH Flat)

Those stats were further boosted by 5/1 winner Roserrow on Thursday in a Novice Hurdle.

If you want to dig a little deeper, then I can tell you that D. McCain Jr is 5-22 (23% strike rate) in handicap chases, 12-33 (36%) in non-handicap hurdle races and 4-7 (57%) in NH flat races at Musselburgh since 2010.

Saturday sees a decent flat card at Doncaster with the highlight being the November handicap. I have run through the trends and we are looking for a horse rated 93 – 99 (all of the last 10 winners), aged 4yo to 6yo (7 of the last 8 winners), carrying 8st 10lbs to 9st 2lbs (all of the last 7 winners), won over 1m 4f or further and has raced in the last 60 days.

No favourite has obliged since 1995 and all of the last 7 winners were drawn in stall 9 or higher.

A top 4 finish LTO accounts for 13 of the last 17 winners and at least 4 runs that current season accounts for 16 of the last 17 winners. Putting all that together leaves us with:

Doncaster November handicap trends horses:

Esteaming @16/1 and Manhattan Swing @16/1

Elsewhere on Saturday, if the word “good” disappears from the current “good to soft” going then Jack Dexter will be in his element on a track where his form figures read 1113 on soft ground and he would be my pick in the Wentworth Stakes.

He put in his best run of the season on Champions Day (heavy ground) when 3rd behind Gordon Lord Byron and Tropics. This represents a drop in class for Tropics and Jack Dexter and they would both have to seriously misfire for one of them not to take this.

The Badger Ales Trophy looks highly competitive again this year and Standing Ovation has a great chance of retaining his crown.

He is 3-3 at Wincanton and although he went off the boil after landing this in 2013, he appeared back to his best LTO at Cheltenham when 2nd to Roalco De Farges.

Standing Ovation’s trainer David Pipe has won this race three times since 2007.

Even more impressive is Paul Nicholls who has won this 7 times since 1999. He has two entries, Benvolio and Just A Par. However, both make their seasonal reappearances here and the Nicholl’s horses have tended to need a run this season.

Lamb Or Cod represents the in-form Philip Hobbs and he loves good ground. If it stays good he will be a major player.

Alfie Spinner is closely matched on recent running with Standing Ovation and could run well at an each-way price.

On a final note, three weeks ago we gave you a couple of Godolphin microsystems for the all-weather racing at Kempton.

So far these two systems have pulled in 9.82pts profit at SP so keep an eye out for the Charlie Appleby and Saeed Bin Suroor runners at Kempton in the coming months.

All the best Nick

https://dailypunt.com/nickhardman

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