Tag Archives: micro systems

Henderson Debutants System

We have a fellow Daily Punt reader to thank for today's micro system.

Derek posted the following micro system in the comments yesterday.

Here's what Derek said…

I use a micro system for Henderson and it’s based on debutants having first run under UK rules. It is based mainly on NH flat and hurdles. I know you use horseracebase so I’ve just cut and pasted my rules.

Here are the rules in plain English as opposed to HRBish!

Henderson Debutants System

National Hunt races.

Run at one of these courses: Ascot, Cheltenham, Chepstow, Doncaster, Exeter, Ffos Las, Fontwell, Kempton, Newbury, Sandown, Stratford, Towcester, Uttoxeter, Wincanton

Race Distance is 2m6f or less

Horse is have it's first run and is trained by Nicky Henderson.

It's price is between Evens and 16/1.

It is 6 years old or younger.

And we only bet in the main season between October to March inclusive.

Heres the overall performance since 2003.

Henderson Debutants System

And here's the breakdown by year

 

Henderson Debutants Yearly Breakdown

Back to Derek…

You will see that it has performed steadily year after year since 2003.

Henderson repeats the same training routine year after year and this has allowed me to have the above and two other micro systems (handicap hurdles and mares) on the man from severn barrows.

Regards

Derek

Excellent, thanks Derek 🙂

Today's Selection

2.10 Chepstow Jumps Road – win bet – 5/1 Bet 365

Big Priced Winners System

So I had nothing planned for today's post and was a bit stuck as to what I would write about.

Then I saw an email yesterday from Betting School Insiders ranting about how you have to have a collection of micro systems to be profitable, and I agree with that.

Also at Betting School they're are always talking about how systems must be based on real world ideas not just a trawl through data to find something that worked in the past, and I agree with that to.

(If you're not a Betting School Insiders member and you are serious about winning you really should join)

What I do when I have one of these ideas based on something real is I try and research it, you cant always, then if possible I set it up as a system in HorseRaceBase and see how it works live.

So this morning I've gone through my live system trials and pulled out a micro system to share.

I called it the Big Priced Winners System.

But that's not because it finds big priced winners, it's because it follows horses that won well last time at a big price.

The idea being that these horses are ahead of where the public, bettors, bookmakers think they should be and maybe will win again.

So I started by looking at horses that won last time at odds of over 25/1 and then looked to see what type of race looked most interesting. IE Flat, AW or NH.

Betting these horses when they run on the Flat turf makes a small loss at industry SP, I would guess that they might break even at Betfair SP.

I then looked at where they raced last time, and in the last 10 years only 13 horses had won at big odds on the National Hunt and then run next time on the flat, they all lost.

Finally, I wanted horses that had won well, so I looked at the distance they won by.

The profit seems to come at 3 lengths or more, so that is what I went with.

The good news is that this system has made a 33% Return on Investment over the last 10 years and that it has been profitable since I created it in May 2013.

The bad news is that there are only about 10 bets per year 🙁

So if you have any ideas how we can up the bets with this system and keep the profit then suggest them in the comments 🙂

Big Priced Winners System

Click to Enlarge

Today's Selection

Worcester 4.20 Man of Steel – win bet – 13/8 Bet Victor

Sire Systems II

We have two more sire micro systems today, these are courtesy of reader Simon French who commented on yesterday's post with two sire systems of his own.

Let's look at the first of those sires, and that is Dom Alco (FR).

The first thing I notice when I look at Dom Alco progeny is that you could've backed them all to date and made a level stake profit (5% ROI). So that's a good sign.

Simon has just two additional rules, which are the horse age which must be between 5 and 8 years old and the race distance which must be between 2 mile 6 furlongs  and 3 mile  1 furlong.

This gives the following results.

Runs = 187

Wins = 45

Strike Rate = 24.06%

Profit = 70.96

Return on Investment = 37.95%

The only thing I would say about this one is that the profit last year was lower than previous years, so I'll be looking for some signs that this is still going to be profitable in the future.

The next system bets Dubawi (IRE) progeny and there are a lot of them.

Backing all is a break even proposition.

The rules that Simon suggests are course equals Southwell (AW), age equals 3 to 5 and distance equals 5 furlongs to a mile.

This gives the following results.

Runs = 44

Wins = 18

Strike Rate = 40.91%

Profit = 62.09

Return on Investment = 141.11%

Again, this one had a poor 2013.

I will definitely be following both over the coming weeks, but will save my money until I have see some good live results.

Thanks  Simon, I've got a spare copy of Value Backing by Carl Nicholson sitting on my desk which I'd be happy to send you. Email me your address and I'll pop it in the post.

Today's Selection courtesy of Betting Insiders

Southwell 3.40 Arr Kid – win bet – 11/4 Betfred

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