Tag Archives: minimum

Musselburgh Tips

Today we have a guest post from Nick Hardman of Betting School Insiders (http://bettinginsiders.com)

Musselburgh Tips and Trainer Trends

We are off to Musselburgh in search of winners on Friday and we have a few trainers with some impressive strike rates at the Scottish track.

First up is Philip Kirby who does well with his handicap runners. He does not do so well with his sprinters so best to concentrate on those races of 7f or longer.

Philip Kirby – handicaps at Musselburgh 2010 – 2014 over 7f or longer

Philip Kirby – handicaps at Musselburgh 2010 – 2014 over 7f or longer

On Friday he has the following qualifiers – Forgiving Glance (2.30pm), Just Paul (3.30pm) and Rocky Two (4.30pm).

Our next trainer to follow is Alan Swinbank who also does well with his handicappers at middle and staying distances:

Alan Swinbank – handicaps at Musselburgh 2010 – 2014 over 1 mile to 1 mile 6f

Alan Swinbank – handicaps at Musselburgh 2010 – 2014 over 1 mile to 1 mile 6f

On Friday he runs Lady Kashaan & Dark Ruler (4.00pm). Robert Winston takes the ride on Lady Kashaan and the Swinbank/ Winston pairing has bagged 5 winners from 11 rides in the last 2 years at Musselburgh.

Our third trainer is Michael Dods. He is another trainer who excels with his handicappers at the course.

Michael Dods – handicaps at Musselburgh 2010 – 2014

Michael Dods – handicaps at Musselburgh 2010 – 2014

On Friday he runs Alan’s Pride (2.30pm) in the Nursery. Connor Beasley takes the ride and the Dods/ Beasley combination has teamed up for 4 winners from 6 rides at the course in the last 2 years.

A few of you have asked for a list of trainers with a high strike rate at the courses we cover in this Friday column. Here is the list for all trainers with a 20% or higher strike rate at Musselburgh since 2010 (minimum of 20 runners):

R. Fahey 24%
P. Kirby 27%
Declan Carroll 26%
M. Dods 28%
A. Swinbank 21%

On a final note for Musselburgh, William Haggas has had just 11 runners at the track since 2010 but 5 have won, including three of the last four. In fact he is 1-1 in 2012, 1-1 in 2013 and 1-2 in 2014. Keep an eye out for anything he runs up at the Scottish track.

Finally, we have previously highlighted the performance of the Tom Dascombe/ Richard Kingscote combination at Haydock and on Friday they team up with the unraced Opportuna (6.20pm) and War Paint (6.50pm).

It will be interesting to see how they run at what may well be decent odds.

Betfred Mile Tips

Today we are joined by Nick Hardman of Betting School Insiders who has analysed the Betfred King George Stakes and the Betfred Mile.

To get access to all Nick's tips join him at http://bettinginsiders.com

The Glorious Goodwood festival is in full flow and Friday sees the Group 2 Betfred King George Stakes over 5f and the 20 runner Betfred Mile heritage handicap. I have run the rule over the entries and hopefully identified a few likely types including a 28/1 outsider for the feature sprint.

3.05pm Betfred Mile (Heritage handicap) 1m

A big field handicap over a mile and it is worth applying some trends to try and whittle the field down to a few likely contenders.

16 of the last 17 winners were all aged 3 to 5yo
14 of the last 17 winners had a previous win at the distance
All bar two of the winners since 1997 had raced in the last 30 days
14 of the winners since 1997 had run to a top 5 finish LTO

That leaves us with a short list of three – Velox, Russian Realm and Heavy Metal.

With Russian Realm doubtful we are left with the top two in the betting. These horses are those that best match the profiles of previous winners since 1997.

Trends selections: Velox @7/1 and Heavy Metal @9/1

3.40pm King George Stakes 5f

Caspian Prince looks a tad overpriced @28/1 given he has some decent form on downhill tracks including a win in the Epsom dash earlier this year.

This is an obvious step up in class but he is a speedy type who should be suited by the track and must have an each-way shout if the rain stays away (best form on good to firm).

Demora is another who brings good handicap form to the table and is worth a crack at this level. On form then Extortionist looks the one to beat but is priced up accordingly.

Tropics also has top notch Group form including a career best runner up spot to Slade Power in the July Cup.

However, this is his first attempt at the minimum trip.

Hamza has a Group 3 win to this name three starts back (Es Que Love back in 2nd) and will most likely attempt to make all. He looks a solid back-to-lay proposition.

Last year’s winner Moviesta has failed to go on this year but his figures over 5f on good or good to firm are excellent. I think he will run well.

Likeliest winner: Extortionist @9/2
Alternative: Moviesta @8/1
Each-way alternatives: Caspian Prince @28/1

Finally don’t forget to keep an eye out for the 2yo Godolphin runners at Newmarket this Friday and Saturday. We have previously highlighted their performance at the July course over the last 5 years and they have proved very profitable to follow for this column in the last 4 weeks.

Nick Hardman
http://bettinginsiders.com

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