Tag Archives: office

Drifters – Good or Bad

Today's pearl of wisdom has been inspired by a bet on the Racing Consultants (http://racingconsultants.co.uk) tipping service last week.

This bet has been the talk of the office because we got so many emails and opinions in about it.

Basically last Thursday David Massey posted up four bets

Today

7.15 Kempton – 1pt win Taaresh (8-1 Bet Victor, Paddy Power, W Hill and others)

7.45 Kempton – 1pt e/w Tevez (9-1 Skybet, Stan James, Coral)

2.15 Wincanton – 1.5pts win Silver Commander (at 6.6 and above Betfair)

2.15 Wincanton – 2pts lay Silver Commander at 2.76 in running.

4.5pts staked

The one that caused the fuss was Taaresh, this is what David wrote as his reasons for making the selection.

An angle we like to use on a regular basis is a horse that's improved or refound it's form over jumps that then reverts to the Flat with a mark that looks on the low side, and Kevin Morgan's evergreen TAARESH fits that bill nicely here. Winner of a competitive 0-120 at Worcester that's worked out quite well, he followed that up with a win off 7lb higher and in better class at Wincanton, a sign that he's clearly in good heart at the moment. Upped in class again for his latest start at Musselburgh, he was far from disgraced in finishing fifth, just getting outpaced in the last quarter of a mile. Back on the Flat and in a low grade handicap, he looks well treated off just 70 here and as a C&D winner for Joe Fanning in the past, has no issue with the conditions either. A slight worry we have is the lack of pace in the race, but that is only a minor one, as he does travel well in his races and isn't short of pace should it turn into a burn up in the straight.

You'll note that the price available at the time the bet was posted was 8/1.

By race time he opened up at 16/1 and drifted out to 25/1!

So the question is, if you hadn't already had your bet placed and a top service tipped you a horse at 8/1 that was now 16/1 and drifting to 20's then 25's would you have bet it?

And would you still have your full stake on it?

Or would you assume that it had no chance because of the price and not bet only to watch it win.

So many people will not bet a horse that drifts because they see it as a negative sign.

Gamblers who make money from their betting would see it as a good sign that they are getting extra value!

My advice is if there is sound reasoning as to why a horse should be a selection then your only concern with the price is that you get the best price that you can.

As I've used Racing Consultants as an example I should mention that the service has now been live for 6 month and every month has been a profitable month with a total profit of £1784.50 to £10 stakes. Which is pretty good for a service that costs just £30 per month. http://racingconsultants.co.uk

Today's Selection

4.10 Kempton Zman Awal – win bet 2/1 Paddy Power

Hawkeye Amateur Jockey System

Hawkeye TipsToday I want to update you on the system we created as a result of the article by Peter Hawkeye.

By the way Hawkeye Tips is making great profits with 32.4 points profit so far in June which follows on from 37 points in May.

Together since the Flat season kicked off proper with the Guineas meeting that's 69.4 points profit all made from just 28 bets, which is a whopping 247% return on investment.

You can join Hawkeye Tips here http://hawkeyetips.com

So the system.

Last time we wrote about this we came up with…

Bet all horses running on the Flat when ridden by one of these amateur jockeys.

Bethell, Miss H
Birkett, Mr R
Brotherton, Miss S
Collington, Mr P
Foley, Miss A
Hutchinson, Miss A L
Mills, Miss Alice
Walton, Miss C

Since Peter first alerted to this there have been just four bets. Two on the day that we published the article, both in the same race and they gave a 3/1 winner.

Then five days later, again two in the same race giving a 7/2 winner.

As a result of our first system we had two interesting comments.

One said surely Simon Walker should be included?

I'm going to say no! The results show that Simon was profitable in 2012, but not 2011 or 2013. He has a good strike rate but I guess his mounts are just over bet.

The second gave us some rules to improve the system. These were…

No. of Runners = Between 8 And 15

I don't think this rule is necessary, and the less rules the better. Most of the races had between 8 and 15 runners anyway and the ones that didnt fared ok.

Race Type = Non-Handicap Handicap Handicap Maiden

Most of the races were Handicaps (96%) and those that weren't didnt make a profit.

So again keeping things simple I'm going to say Handicaps only.

Month = May, June, July, August, October

All the profit did come in these months and they are the main Flat Turf season months, only 4% of the runs fell outside the main season. We'll include this rule.

Position Odds Market Between 1 And 8

I like me a big priced winner every now and then, and there was some huge profit from the outsiders, so I'm excluding this rule.

Horse Last Race Placing 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th or 6th

Again I see profit across all last time out positions, so I'm not using this rule.

Here's what we're left with.

Amateur Jockey System

When one of these jockeys…

Bethell, Miss H
Birkett, Mr R
Brotherton, Miss S
Collington, Mr P
Foley, Miss A
Hutchinson, Miss A L
Mills, Miss Alice
Walton, Miss C

Rides on the Flat, on Turf in a Handicap between May and October then bet.

The results for the last four years are…

Runs = 353
Wins = 62
Strike Rate = 17.56%
Profit at iSP = 214.88
Return on Investment = 60.87%

This system has a runner today, there is a concern about his ability on the ground conditions, but I'm going to go with a small bet…

Today's Selection

5.25 Salisbury The Happy Hammer – eachway bet – 7/1 Bet 365

The original articles are here http://dailypunt.com/amateur-jockey-system/ and here http://dailypunt.com/amateur-jockey-system-2/

Thanks to Jim Muir and John Curtis for your comments, email me your postal address and I'll send you something from the office 😉

Colossus 1(£mil) Coral 0

This is funny and clever and also highlights a key feature of the Colossus £10 Million bet, which I guess was the point behind the bet in the first place.

You will recall that I told you on Saturday about the Colossus £10 Million bet where you predict correct scores to win a £10 million jackpot.

Well Colossus Bets decided to enter the Coral jackpot competition where Coral pay out £1 million.

Their perm cost them £35,000 which is beyond most of us (and if you are betting £35,000 on your weekend bets and aren't a Premier League footballer some might think you have a small gambling problem!!)

But they won the £1 million jackpot and as far as I can make out they did it to highlight the fact that if you are on to a big win with Colossus you can cash out your bet and take some profit rather than hang on and risk the bet losing.

With Coral it's all or nothing…

“Instead (of cashing out), we sat and sweated through the 90 minutes with the Watford supporters!”

“We had a Watford win and the draw running for us in the final leg, but we had little option but to sit and suffer. Though in fact we stood and suffered as we travelled down to Brighton for the game from our London offices!”

“It was certainly a controversial match and my head nearly exploded when Watford’s second goal wasn’t given.”

If you are in to big big jackpot style football bets, then Colossus Bets is the place to play because once your bet has started to win they will offer to buy back your bet so you can take your profits and run…

https://www.colossusbets.com

Lay Debutants

13:00:00 Nottingham 9 Zigzag Hill
13:05:00 Punchestown 9 Killiney Court (IRE)
13:30:00 Nottingham 1 Bishop Of Ruscombe
13:30:00 Nottingham 3 Farquhar (IRE)
13:30:00 Nottingham 6 Spanish Artist
13:35:00 Punchestown 4 Massinis Adventure (IRE)
18:10:00 Kempton 2 Leonard Thomas

Lay Handicap

14:05:00 Punchestown 2 Bonheur Secret (FR)
14:05:00 Punchestown 13 Volt Sun (FR)
15:40:00 Nottingham 9 Jimmy Sewell (IRE)

Today's Selection

2.10 Carlisle Spookydooky (IRE) – each way bet – 5/1 Bet 365

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