Tag Archives: past Form

Understanding Greyhound Racing Form

Understanding Greyhound Racing Form

I've been promising for a while now that I will teach some winning greyhound strategies so today I'm going to explain how the form is recorded for the dogs. I'll then go on to share a strategy that I have used for years whenever I bet the dogs.

This is going to run over a number of days and I might spread it out a bit so as to not bore those readers not interested in the dogs, but we'll see how it goes.

So below you will see a screenshot of some greyhound racing form and below that a list of what the various items mean.

Greyhound racing form

Greyhound racing form – Click to Enlarge

[1] Starting with the easy, this is the trap that the dog will run from

[2] The dogs name & (W) indicates that this dog is a wide runner and consequently it will be allocated one of the outside traps each time it runs. You may also see (M) which indicates a middle runner and this dog will be allocated a middle trap.

[3] The best recent (Calculated) time that the greyhound has achieved along with details of the grade and the date. In this case the best time came in a trial, a trial is a qualifying race which helps the racing manager to know how to grade the dog IE what is it's ability what race should he put it in. Trials will usually have less than 6 runners, 3 in this case, and there is no betting on trials.

[4] The name of the trainer.

[5] This is the Racing Post rating for the dog. It is time based and personally I don’t pay much attention to it.

[6] A description of the animal in this case a F b which is a fawn bitch (female) a male will be indicated with a d for dog. This is followed by the name of the dogs sire (father), dam (mother) and the date whelped (Date of Birth).

[7] Date last in season. Bitches only!

[8] This is the Racing Post's tipsters comment, often vague and and can sway your judgement.

Now we get to the past form for the dog in question. Each line represents one race with the top line being the most recent.

[9] The date of the race.

[10] The track where the race was run.

[11] The distance of the race in metres.

[12] The trap number that the dog ran from on that occasion.

[13] The sectional or split time. This is the time from the traps to the winning line the first time the dog passes the line. This is useful to hep you understand the pace of the dog and whether it is likely to lead early.

[14] Position in race at the start (IE out of the traps), quarter (In a 4 bend race this will be between the 1st & 2nd bends), half and three quarter stages.

[15] Finishing position.

[16] The distance beaten by or if the winner the distance won by.

[17] The name of the winner or the second if this dog was the winner.

[18] The Racing Manager's in running comments for that run

[19] The time that the winner took to complete the race.

[20] The allowance made for the going. N = normal otherwise plus or minus in hundredths of a second EG – 40 means that the time was adjusted down by 40 hundredths of a second.

[21] The starting price of the dog.

[22] The grade of the race.

[23] The calculated time for this dog. This will be calculated from the distance the dog finished behind the winner and adjusted for the going allowance.

Now that we understand the information (form) that we have available next time we can look at how we can use that information.

Now we know how to read the card check out these posts that deal with finding a winner.

Who is the fastest to the first bend

Greyhound racing videos 

Baulking

Is it fast enough

Image courtesy of Saris0000 under Creative Commons 2.0

Malcolm Pett System Development

Today we have our regular column from Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com

Following on from last weeks article where we looked at the idea of selecting between two and ten selections a day and then seeing how good we are at getting winners.

After thinking about this for a while I decided I would try something a little different and select runners who at around 5 in the morning, were ranked 2nd according to Betfair's early prices.

Now I know this is probably a strange way of doing things and I knew I was going to get caught out by information appearing later that could change the ranking.

But as with all ideas you need somewhere to start.

I then had to filter out runners based on their current and past form.

But I didn’t go crazy I just used three key pointers that I thought from experience would help.

Here are the selections and results.


The original idea I had was, that I would then take these selections and look a bit deeper at the form and decide whether to use them or not.

I was also hoping that I would get at least 5 selections a day to use in order to this.

But actually that isn’t the way it worked out.

Some days there can be 5 or 6 selections but on others there is only 1 or even none at all.

Of course the easiest thing I could do is change the actual selection criteria…

…But on further study I think I am getting roughly around 24% to 28% strike rate which for a pretty simple selection process is, I think, pretty good.

One of the filters I have used (which I must admit I haven’t used very often in the past) is “Unexposed” horses.

I haven’t been very scientific about it…I have just filtered out horses that have had more than x (x being my secret number) runs.

It just appears the number I have chosen helps with finding winners.

I am also only using selections where the horse has run recently.

As with all systems getting a consistent strike rate is only half the story…

…Getting winning prices that cover your losses and make you a profit is the other half.

A 24% strike rate means I have to get average winning odds of 3.15 just to break even.

Saying all that…The selections haven’t done too well so far this month with only 1 winner from 12.

So it will be interesting to see if they pick up.

You can follow along with this test here.


Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm

The Grey Horse Bot

Today's Selection

Towcester 3.10 Leaderofthedance – win bet 3/1 Bet 365

Horse Racing Laying System

We often get emails into Daily Punt asking about methods and techniques for finding horses to lay.

So today a basic method that I've borrowed from the Easy Lay Method website.

There are many reasons why horses lose their races and the most obvious is that usually there is always a horse that is capable of winning on his day.

So we need to analyse a race from the viewpoint, not of whether the horse can win, but whether others can beat it!

As a general rule only 30% of favourites win their races. It’s a fact that the most certain of certainties can lose and they very often do.

Couple this with the fact that in pure numerical terms in a ten runner race for example, there is only a 1 in ten chance of winning.

Now let us look at the numerous reasons why market leaders might not win the race.

1. The going is not ideal – some horses race best on ground that suits their running style.

For example a horse that lifts its hooves up high will usually do best on soft going and possibly the all weather tracks.

Horses that appear to glide over the ground will prefer good or firm going as their hooves are not going to sink into the surface.

Use the past race comments to identify horses that are not proven on today’s going.

2. The course is not ideal – most horses have a preference for a certain type of course.

The type of course they prefer is often highlighted by their results.

Some are nippy types and prefer a tight course such as Chester.

Others may be out and out gallopers and will prefer a course such as Aintree, while some prefer to run on all weather surfaces such as fibresand or polytrack.

Again look for fancied horses not proven at the course or similar types of courses.

3. The trip is not ideal – horses are like human athletes as some are muscle bound sprinters.

Some lithe and lean long distance runners and most are probably somewhere in between.

Although it is true for most horses that they become better at longer distances as they age.

This may explain why there are a much larger percentage of older horses in jumps races of 3 miles and further.

As well as looking at past form think about which of the contenders fit the profile for the type of horse that does well in today’s type of race.

There are a whole plethora of further reasons which might affect a horse’s performance on the day eg Doesn’t travel well, prefer different seasons, prefer small or large fields of runners, mares very often do well when in foal and you begin to see it is a wonder that horses perform as consistently as they do.

Your job is to find these weaknesses.

Let’s take a look at some example lay selections found by the ELM “Elite”.

Pontefract 2.10 Transcental – Lost at 100-30 SP Favourite

Positive: Her previous 3rd encouraged the market to consider this valuable experience in a field of unraced maidens
Negative: Never underestimate the opposition in maiden races as so little is known about the runners.

Pontefract 4.10 Adab – Lost as 2-1 Favourite

Positive: Fair 3rd last time out
Negative: Different type of course – the one galloping and the other tight

Bath 7.15 Danski – Lost at 5-1 favourite

Positive: Previous 4th was a fair run
Negative: Race was on all weather at Kempton not turf as at Bath

Southwell 4.25 Graylyn Ruby – Lost at 9-2 favourite

Positive: Tried this trip for the first time when 3rd at this venue last time
Negative: Same track and trip but stiffer competition

What we can see from these selections is that most are poor value.

They are favourites or short priced for the wrong reasons, namely their position last time out and this is what gives us the edge.

They are often backed into favouritism because of what they achieved last time out rather than on their true merits.

Unusually, market sentiment in these cases has given us an edge.

For more info or to get daily lay selections go to http://www.easylaymethod.com

Today's Selection

Pontefract 8.20 Reset City – each way bet – 11/1 Bet Victor, Sky Bet

Systems or Form Book

Today we have a guest post from Mathematician Betting. To trial their free service Click Here.
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There has been a debate over many years between “SYSTEMITES” and “FORM STUDENTS” as to the best way to proceed to betting profits.

The systemites believe that the best chance you have of making money is not through form analysis, but through historical data and number crunching reams of raw racing data over the years in an effort to identify successful avenues to profit.

The form students on the other hand believe that the only way you can prosper is through meticulous study in the form book .

Both sides have respected and successful players and the debate is still not settled .
Horse Racing Systems are forms of betting that reflect years of data, concerning multiple angles such as Trainers, Jockeys, Horses, Sires, Ground, Class, Courses, Favourites, Outsiders, Absences, Fitness, Owners, Ages of Horses, Weight Penalties and many more types of angle that have historically proven to be profitable over the years.

One example of a simple system approach may be the fact that if you followed all the offspring of Rubiano on the All Weather, you would have made massive profits as they have an astonishing record and are under bet as people have not realised yet how strong a Sire Rubiano is on fibresand.

The critics of systems will point out that once that knowledge has been identified and being used by many, then it will inevitably start to reflect on the Starting Prices of such horses which will reduce.

Subsequently long term the system will move into a loss making situation.

There appears to be a lot of sense in both arguments, but the Rubiano example is one of thousands of possible systems that can be adapted and developed that could win you money.

FORM STUDENTS believe that the past Form of racehorses is by far the best angle that you can use. If Horse A beats Horse B then under similar conditions it should do so again.

One step further is collateral form where they say that if Horse A beats horse B and If horse B then in another race beats Horse C then should Horse A meet Horse C Horse A should win.

Obviously its far more complicated than that in practise and collateral form lines can be long and arduous , but they generally believe that past Form can separate the abilities of horses and identify winning bets.

One thing I have learnt is that its very hard to persuade anyone from either camp that they are going about things the wrong way .

So which side are we on ?

Many years ago I was anti – systems as I didn't really appreciate the scope that this style of betting had,and I was firmly a “Form book” junkie.

Over the years you refine your betting and continue learning and I would say that my position has changed a lot. I am not afraid to change when I think I am wrong. I stand in neither camp now . I firmly believe that anyone who adopts a rigid in-flexible position and who is unable to consider the merits of other forms of analysis, is going to struggle to win .

If the form book says a horse is an even money chance to win and yet the statistics prove that the trainer has sent hundreds of horses to that specific track and failed to train a winner there before, then you are a fool if you don't take notice of that .

Similarly if a system identifies that you should religiously bet a certain type of horse blindly under certain conditions, you would be foolish not to use the Form book to see what possible flaws this has in relation to the opposition that day .

I know people who make regular profits at racing through following well researched systems developed and proven over a number of years. Equally I know people who win money at betting every year through analysis of Form .

The issue as a Racing Tipster is far more complicated. I know of No Service that can win clients money at Racing using a single-angle approach.

Knowledge is Power and you are wrong to ignore anything that can help you reach your goals .

I use the Form Book, but I am in no way a slave to it and can see its inadequacies are glaring at times. I also use a strong historical perspective in my betting and do not flaunt bets in the face of proven systems or historical trends that have been discovered over the years

I am only happy when every angle has been covered and my selection can stand up against the most rigorous of test from both the Form Book and the Systemites.
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Click Here to join the Mathematician Free Bets Service

Today's Selection

Haydock 2.50 Mixed Message – each way selection

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