Tag Archives: position

National Hunt Trainer Facts

This morning I'm trying to get a handle on where I want to go with a new National Hunt system, so I'm looking at some facts and figures in the hope that an idea of angle jumps out at me.

So I've logged into Horse Race Base and loaded up all Hurdle runs in 2013 and so far in 2014 and I'm looking at the trainers to see where the best returns are.

If I look at trainers that have had more than 75 runs since January 1st 2013 and sort them by strike rate, then the trainer with the highest strike rate is Willie Mullins…

Runs = 641

Wins = 186

Strike Rate = 29%

Loss at industry SP = -124.03

ROI = – 19.35 %

I'd say a strike rate of 29% from all hurdlers sent out is huge. A loss of 19.35% on turnover is a lot, and although I'm sure that can be improved by betting at Betfair SP I would imagine a lot of these were favourites and that the Betfair SP returns wouldn't be a great deal better.

Interestingly, just down the list a bit is Nicky Henderson with a 24% strike rate but only a 7% loss on turnover…

Runs = 525

Wins = 125

Strike Rate = 24%

Loss at industry SP = -36.75

ROI = – 7 %

So my next task is going to be to have a closer look at the hurdlers of these two trainers.

First off, I'm interested in how many runners Willie Mullins actually sends over to the UK and whether they perform better or worse than his Irish runners.

The answer is that only 61 came to the UK in the period and the strike rate with these 61 was 21% and the loss of turnover was 29%.

So the profit and runners will be in Ireland.

The table below shows the breakdown of the Irish runners by track, you will see there are some huge strike rates at some of the courses…

Willie Mullins Irish Course Run 2013 - 14 table

Next I looked at position in the odds market and this is interesting out of the 580 runs that Willie had in Ireland since January 1st 2013 a whopping 469 were ranked in the first four in the betting market.

How many that were not in the first four in the betting do you think went on to win?

Well according to Horse Race Base the answer is none!

In fact if we only bet Willie Mullins hurdlers that run in Ireland and are in the first three in the betting then we have a system that just edges into profit at Industry SP.

If we only look at those ridden by Paul Townend or Ruby Walsh, who take most of the rides then we have the following figures since January 1st 2013…

Runs = 331

Wins = 139

Strike Rate = 41.99 %

Profit at industry SP = 22

ROI = 6.65%

That's a great strike rate and if you can't stomach losing runs then these rules will find you bets that see you collecting regularly, but these horses are over bet, especially when Ruby is on board, so the profit isn't huge.

Today's Selection

2.40 Redcar Mixed Message – win bet – 5/6 Bet 365

 

 

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Trainers To Follow

Hopefully a few of you were on Bronze Angel (14/1) in the Cambridgeshire last weekend after our trends article picked him out along with Velox (2nd) and Big Johnny D (7th) who returned a massive 50/1 for William Hill customers who got 7 places. 

This week we turn our attention to the jumps and highlight three trainers who are literally on fire right now with their National Hunt horses:

It’s always useful to take note of which trainers have their string in top order at the start of the National Hunt season and I have picked out three who have an exceptional strike rate in the last 30 days.  

Trainers To Follow

Charlie Longsdon (last 30 days)

Runs = 11
Wins = 7
Strike rate = 64%
Profit at SP = 13.75

Mrs Dianne Sayer (last 30 days)

Runs = 15
Wins = 7
Strike rate = 47%
Profit at SP = 20.50

Kim Bailey (last 30 days)

Runs = 11
Wins = 7
Strike rate = 64%
Profit at SP = 10.04

At the time of writing they have the following entries on Friday and Saturday:

Friday

Fontwell 3.15pm – Pure Style

Fontwell 5.00pm – Little Chip

Fontwell 5.30pm – Glowinginthedark

Hexham 4.05pm – Bell Weir

Hexham 4.40pm – Sergeant Pink

Hexham 5.10pm – Patsys Castle

Hexham 5.40pm – West End

Saturday

Fontwell 2.50pm – Viking Ridge

Fontwell 3.20pm – Pure Style

Fontwell 3.55pm – Up For An Oscar

The Totepool Challenge Cup from Ascot is the big handicap of the weekend and William Haggas’ Prince’s Trust is a worthy favourite.  He looks well ahead of his handicap mark but the value in his price has long since evaporated. 

American Hope is vying for favouritism and has good Ascot form.  I would give him every chance, but again there is not much juice in his price. 

At the prices, the one I like is Bunbury Cup winner Heaven’s Guest. He is very consistent, goes well in big fields and has course form to boot. 

He won this race off a mark of 100 last year and is now rated 105.  George Chaloner takes off a useful 3lbs so Heaven’s Guest is effectively just 2lb higher than when successful in this in 2013. 

At 12/1 he would be my idea of an each-way bet if you fancy taking on the favourites.

Saturday Ascot 3.50pm – Heavens Guest @12/1 each-way

This year’s renewal of the Arc looks very competitive and you can probably make a decent case for most of the field. 

It certainly looks like a race to watch rather than bet on. 

However, given the global appeal of the race, it is nice to have an interest even if it makes little appeal as serious betting proposition. 

One thing to bear in mind is the importance of the draw.  Essentially you do not want to be too wide coming around a sweeping bend that seems to last forever, before the horses straighten up for home. 

With that in mind I’ll keep it simple and side with a couple of 3yo fillies, the exact types who have done so well in this race in recent years.  

I also want to be in the low half of the draw so I will have to wait and see on that score. 

If the draw is kind I’ll be having a couple of quid each-way on Japan’s Harp Star and France’s Avenir Certain, even if it’s just to add a little spice to the enjoyment of watching Europe’s most prestigious flat race of the year.

Sunday Longchamp 3.30pm – Harp Star @8/1 and Avenir Certain @9/1

Nick Hardman

Betting Insiders

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Betfair Trader

Today I am mostly reading about trading.

There is an interesting article in this months SmartSigger (Get your 1st month free here https://dailypunt.com/smartsig ) about the different types of Betfair trader and what sort of trader you might be.

As well as detailing different trading strategies, it also suggested a super fast trading tool which is free to use 🙂

I haven't tried it yet, but it definitely sounds like it is worth a play.

Here are some of the key features…

– Unbeatable speed – super fast trading on Betfair

– Grid Interface – single click trading, compact Betfair-style trading grid

– Ladder Interface – full depth of market, single click trading, queue position and built-in robot

– Position In Queue (PIQ) – provides a real-time estimated PIQ, arguably the most important and unique feature of our ladder!

– Automated Trading Robot – included is a unique Betfair bot, watch it trade on the ladder for you!

– Multi-Market – trade several different markets simultaneously

– Managed Markets (Guardian) – works in the background to gather data from multiple ‘managed' markets and maintain offset bets

– Tick Offset – automatically sends an opposing bet, after you get matched

– Stop Loss – automatically limits your losses. Trailing Stop Loss can also protect profits

– Racing Autopilot – it can automatically select each horse race and move forward
Greening (Cash-out) – a single click to lock in your profit (or loss) regardless of the outcome

– Advanced Charts – possibly the most comprehensive integrated charting available in any Betfair application

I think the most interesting and important feature for the trader is the advanced charts!

You can get the software here http://www.cymatic.co.uk/

If you've used it before I'd love to have your feedback in the comments.

Today's Selection

8.45 Kempton Four Cheers – eachway bet – 14/1 Bet Victor

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Hamilton Tips & Trends

There's racing at Hamilton today so this is a good day to look back at the Hamilton angles we have researched previously.

Back on June 11th we wrote about the profit that could be made by betting stall 1 at Hamilton when the starting stalls are positioned on a bend.

This only happens on races of 1 mile 1 furlong.

Since that article was published there have been 9 stall 1 runners over 1m1f at Hamilton.

They have produced 4 winners at 3/1, 6/1, 7/4 and 13/8.

So that's a handy iSP profit of 7.37 points a nifty 82% ROI.

There's only 1 race over 1m1f today and the stall 1 runner is…

4.10 Hamilton Neuf Des Coeurs – 11/2 Bet Victor

On July 18th Nick Hardman wrote about a simple but profitable trainer trend at Hamilton.

The stats for Keith Dalgleish when he runs in a non handicap race at Hamilton show a 21% strike rate and a 46% ROI.

There is only one Non Handicap race at Hamilton today and Keith Dalgleish has a runner…

3.10 Live Dangerously – 11/1 Bet Victor

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