This morning I'm trying to get a handle on where I want to go with a new National Hunt system, so I'm looking at some facts and figures in the hope that an idea of angle jumps out at me.
So I've logged into Horse Race Base and loaded up all Hurdle runs in 2013 and so far in 2014 and I'm looking at the trainers to see where the best returns are.
If I look at trainers that have had more than 75 runs since January 1st 2013 and sort them by strike rate, then the trainer with the highest strike rate is Willie Mullins…
Runs = 641
Wins = 186
Strike Rate = 29%
Loss at industry SP = -124.03
ROI = – 19.35 %
I'd say a strike rate of 29% from all hurdlers sent out is huge. A loss of 19.35% on turnover is a lot, and although I'm sure that can be improved by betting at Betfair SP I would imagine a lot of these were favourites and that the Betfair SP returns wouldn't be a great deal better.
Interestingly, just down the list a bit is Nicky Henderson with a 24% strike rate but only a 7% loss on turnover…
Runs = 525
Wins = 125
Strike Rate = 24%
Loss at industry SP = -36.75
ROI = – 7 %
So my next task is going to be to have a closer look at the hurdlers of these two trainers.
First off, I'm interested in how many runners Willie Mullins actually sends over to the UK and whether they perform better or worse than his Irish runners.
The answer is that only 61 came to the UK in the period and the strike rate with these 61 was 21% and the loss of turnover was 29%.
So the profit and runners will be in Ireland.
The table below shows the breakdown of the Irish runners by track, you will see there are some huge strike rates at some of the courses…
Next I looked at position in the odds market and this is interesting out of the 580 runs that Willie had in Ireland since January 1st 2013 a whopping 469 were ranked in the first four in the betting market.
How many that were not in the first four in the betting do you think went on to win?
Well according to Horse Race Base the answer is none!
In fact if we only bet Willie Mullins hurdlers that run in Ireland and are in the first three in the betting then we have a system that just edges into profit at Industry SP.
If we only look at those ridden by Paul Townend or Ruby Walsh, who take most of the rides then we have the following figures since January 1st 2013…
Runs = 331
Wins = 139
Strike Rate = 41.99 %
Profit at industry SP = 22
ROI = 6.65%
That's a great strike rate and if you can't stomach losing runs then these rules will find you bets that see you collecting regularly, but these horses are over bet, especially when Ruby is on board, so the profit isn't huge.
Today's Selection
2.40 Redcar Mixed Message – win bet – 5/6 Bet 365
Betfair Trader
Today I am mostly reading about trading.
There is an interesting article in this months SmartSigger (Get your 1st month free here http://dailypunt.com/smartsig ) about the different types of Betfair trader and what sort of trader you might be.
As well as detailing different trading strategies, it also suggested a super fast trading tool which is free to use 🙂
I haven't tried it yet, but it definitely sounds like it is worth a play.
Here are some of the key features…
– Unbeatable speed – super fast trading on Betfair
– Grid Interface – single click trading, compact Betfair-style trading grid
– Ladder Interface – full depth of market, single click trading, queue position and built-in robot
– Position In Queue (PIQ) – provides a real-time estimated PIQ, arguably the most important and unique feature of our ladder!
– Automated Trading Robot – included is a unique Betfair bot, watch it trade on the ladder for you!
– Multi-Market – trade several different markets simultaneously
– Managed Markets (Guardian) – works in the background to gather data from multiple ‘managed' markets and maintain offset bets
– Tick Offset – automatically sends an opposing bet, after you get matched
– Stop Loss – automatically limits your losses. Trailing Stop Loss can also protect profits
– Racing Autopilot – it can automatically select each horse race and move forward
Greening (Cash-out) – a single click to lock in your profit (or loss) regardless of the outcome
– Advanced Charts – possibly the most comprehensive integrated charting available in any Betfair application
I think the most interesting and important feature for the trader is the advanced charts!
You can get the software here http://www.cymatic.co.uk/
If you've used it before I'd love to have your feedback in the comments.
Today's Selection
8.45 Kempton Four Cheers – eachway bet – 14/1 Bet Victor
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