Tag Archives: race course

Profitable Yarmouth Trainers

I guess there are a lot of race courses that are out on a limb, as it were, geographically.

Yarmouth is local to me and I know what a pain it is to travel there from anywhere else in the country. I also remember years ago there was a system doing the rounds based on betting the runners of Newmarket based trainers.

The theory being that the big HQ yards would try out their hotshots at Yarmouth because it is relatively local to them.

So this morning I thought I'd run a report on top performing trainers at Yarmouth and see what I come up with.

Amazingly there is a trainer with a 40% strike rate (Ed Walker) at Yarmouth from all runs and another with a 39% strike rate (Mrs L Wadham).

Profitable Yarmouth Trainers

Below I have listed all the trainers with a 20% or higher strike rate, who have had more than 10 runners at Yarmouth.

Baker, George
Bravery, G C
Burke, Mrs K
Carson, Anthony
Cecil, H R A (Lady Cecil!)
Cumani, L M
Fahey, R A
Haggas, W J
Hannon, R
Haynes, A B
Hutchinson, Alison
McBride, P J
Meehan, B J
Mohammed, Ismail
Noseda, J
Powell, B G
Varian, Roger
Wadham, Mrs L
Walker, Ed
Wall, C F
Williams, Ian

Following these trainers at Yarmouth betting all horses they send would have returned a whopping 51% Return on Investment at SP over the last 3 1/2 years.

Today the following runners are trained by a trainer from our high strike rate list above…

5.50 Orlando Rogue
6.50 Censorious (trained by Ed Walker), Hamble & Sermarel
7.20 Venus Marina
7.50 Peacemaker
8.20 Piemans Girl, Roring Samson
8.50 Vodka Chaser

Chester Tips

Chester Race CourseYou probably noticed that yesterday's selection came from the Amateur Jockey system and it gave another win for Serena Brotherton 🙂

Today we have a guest post from Nick Hardman of Betting School Insiders and Nick gives us some pointers for the Chester meeting which kicks off today.

Chester Tips

Affectionately known as The Roodee, Chester racecourse is a flat left handed course with tight bends.

One circuit of the course is just over 1 mile in distance.  Horses are constantly on the turn and with such a short run in off the final bend it is very difficult for horses to win coming from off the pace.

Front runners and horses that race prominently are those that typically do well here.  It takes a particular kind of a horse to win here, a jockey who knows how to ride here and also a trainer who knows the type off horse to be suited by the tight turns of the track.

One trainer who has an excellent recent record at Chester is Roger Varian.  In the past 3 seasons he has sent out 5 winners from 18 runners at the course to a level stakes profit of £16.20.

Roger Varian – Chester runners 2012 – 2014

Runs

Wins

% win

Place

% place

P/L (£1 win)

18

5

28

6

33

+16.20

 

However, if we dig a little deeper we can see that it pays to follow his 3yo runners in particular at Chester:

Roger Varian – 3yo Chester runners 2012 – 2014

Runs

Wins

% win

Place

% place

P/L (£1 win)

13

5

38

6

46

+21.20

 

On Friday evening he runs a 3yo by the name of Tears Of The Sun in 1m 2f fillies handicap (7.20pm).  A winner last time out, she is up 6lb and has a handy draw in stall 2.

She is Roger Varian’s sole runner at the course on Friday and looks sure to go well.

Since 2010, Mark Johnston has notched up 35 winners at the course from 224 runners at a strike rate of 16%.  However, he is just 2-23 this season with his horses at the Roodee.

No-one rides Chester better than Franny Norton and when he teams up with Mark
Johnston they form a potent partnership.

Since 2010 they are 13-63 at a strike rate of 21%.  This season though they are 1-10.  The Johnston/ Norton combo teams up with Disavow (6.20pm),  Alpine Storm (6.50pm),  Maracuja (7.20pm) and Crafted (9.00pm).

Crafted is the most interesting over 7 ½ furlongs, a trip that has seen the Johnston/ Norton combination bag 3 wins from 7 runners since 2010 for a healthy strike rate of 43% and a level stakes profit of £16.33.

Richard Fahey is a trainer who sends a lot of horses to Chester and it is his 2yo runners in non-handicaps who are worth noting.

They are 11-39 for a level stakes profit of £22.24 at a healthy strike rate of 28% since 2010.  Twenty-two of those runners hit the places and each-way backers would have increased their level stakes profit to £43.63.

Richard Fahey – 2yo non-handicap races Chester 2010 – 2014

Runs

Wins

% win

Place

% place

P/L (£1 win)

P/L (e/w)

39

11

28

23

59

+22.24

+43.63

 

On Friday he runs 2yo filly Super Quick in the 7f maiden (6.20pm) and she looks to have a cracking chance.

 

Windsor Draw Bias?

Windsor Race CourseWe had a reader question in last week in response to one of the draw bias articles we published, so today I am going to try and answer that.

Here's the question…

Hi chaps,

I read your page every day.I was interested in the draw bias features you posted re Pontefract.

As a follow on does or is there a bias for all race tracks or just certain ones?

Just a query – note the card at Windsor tonight (16/06/2014).7 races and four winners from stall 9 at odds to sp of 5/1, 16/1, 16/1 and 9/2 £375 profit to £10 stakes.

For the record the winners in order came as follows –

Stall 9, 6, 11, 9, 9, 8, 9

All the best
James

Thanks James, a great question. I have a copy of the Value Backing paperback here, if you email the TGH Trading email address with your postal address I'll send it to you 🙂

(If any other readers have questions that result in an article published here or want to write an article themselves, I have other goodies to give away 😉

Is there a bias for all tracks, I would say no, not a repeatable consistent bias that we can make money from.

It's not in the best interest of the course to have a bias and if possible they will work to remove any bias that occurs.

Regarding a Windsor draw bias, I don't know if there is a bias, so let's look at some numbers to see if this is a one off anomaly or something we can profit from.

So the first thing I did was to look at the stall stats for Windsor over the last 10 years when 9 or more ran.

Obviously if I looked at all races the stats would be skewed towards the lower stalls when less than 9 ran.

Here's the results for all stalls…

Windsor Stall Stats 9 + Runners

Click to Enlarge

Nothing significant there, with a minimum of 9 runners you would expect stalls 1 – 9 to have similar strike rates and they do all being between 8 – 10%.

So next I looked at stall 9 broken down by number of runners in the race…

Windsor Stall 9 by number runners

Click to Enlarge

This is interesting and a little strange.

First off I see 8 runners races with stall 9 horses, so I guess this is where a horse is withdrawn, so I'm thinking we can say that where there were 9 horses declared to run then backing stall 9 is profitable.

Because looking at the above table we can see profit when 8 run and when 9 run and an increased strike rate.

What I'm thinking now is that there is a bias at Windsor and that maybe it is towards the highest stall in the race and that maybe in 8 runner races stall 8 has an advantage and in 7 runner races stall 7 etc.

So that's where I'm going to leave it for today, there is a meeting at Windsor on Saturday and I will write some more on this before then.

Today's Selection 

3.45 Beverley Gambol – eachway bet – 7/1 Paddy Power

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