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Headgear Racing System

So last week I told you about an article over at Geegeez that put forward the idea of backing Paul Nichols runners who wear headgear for the first time.

So today I have done some research and investigated all the trainers who have been profitable in the past with their runners who were wearing headgear for the first time.

I'm looking at National Hunt only and am looking at horses who are wearing cheekpieces, blinkers or a hood for the first time.

Along the way I discovered a system with a 10,000% ROI!

Ok, I spotted a trainer who in 2014 only had one runner (Viking Rebel) who wore headgear for the first time and that runner won at 100/1.

Although that would make any system look like a winner I have not included it in my system below.

What I have got is a long list of trainers who had at least 10 runners wearing headgear for the first time from January 1st 2013 through to December 31st 2014 and who made a good profit at iSP with those runners.

Runs = 767
Wins = 127
Strike Rate = 16.56%
Profit at industry SP = 405.23
ROI = 52.83%

All the research was done on the data from 2013 and 2014 and if I run that system on 2015 so far it has already made 42 points profit in 2015.

But, here's the thing!

You could've backed every horse that wore headgear for the first time so far this year and made a profit.

I'm going to monitor this for a while and share any bets that come up on this page and then decide what to do with it once we have some live results.

There's no National Hunt racing today.

Today's Selection

3:10 Wolverhampton – Don't Be – win bet – 10/11 Paddy Power

Systems & Selections from Nick Hardman

We had a nice profit from the Football Forecasts free bets I published yesterday and those that joined the service doubled up their profit with the remaining bets.

Football Forecasts is well worth following and you can try it for a month for £9.99 here http://footballforecasts.uk

Today we are back to the racing with Nick Hardman.

Nick gave us a huge week last time with King George and Welsh National winners and today he has selections for today and tomorrow's racing.

Get more Nick Hardman goodness here Betting Insiders

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Happy New Year to all Daily Punt subscribers and hopefully a few of you were on our Boxing Day selections for the King George and Welsh National.

On to today and a couple of things I want to share with you.

First up is the Henderson/ Geraghty combination at Sandown.

Since 2010 they have teamed up for 25 winners from just 77 rides, producing a level stakes profit of £29.28 at a strike rate of 32%.

2014 in particular was a good time to back the pair as they managed 5 winners from 13 runners and a level stakes profit of £21.92 (38% strike rate).

In addition to that they have a 52% strike rate in non-handicap hurdle races at the course. On Saturday they team up on the following horses at Sandown:

Henderson/ Geraghty, Sandown 3rd January 2015:

1.50 Tanks For That (Handicap chase)
2.25 L’Ami Serge (Grade 1 hurdle)
3.35 Triolo D’Alene (Handicap chase)

Nicky Henderson also has the following entries at the time of writing although it remains to be seen which horses take up their engagement and if they do, whether Barry Geraghty will be on board.

12.40 Mayfair Music (Listed hurdle)
3.00 Royal Irish Hussar, Sweet Deal and Lough Kent

For Friday I have a few qualifiers from some more systems I am road testing. The qualifiers are:

Southwell Friday January 2nd 2015

12.50pm Wrenigham @12/1
1.55pm Beautiful Stranger @11/2
2.30pm Poppy Bond @11/2

Wreningham has not won for an eternity but has course figures 811332 and is 5lbs below his last winning mark. He could reward each-way backers and Joe Fanning is on board.

Beautiful Stranger is trained by Keith Dalgleish a trainer with a superb record with his handicappers at the Midlands course.

Poppy Bond has two wins and three seconds from 9 AW starts and drops back in trip here after travelling well on her last start. She finished a good second on her last try over track and trip in August 2013.

Wolverhampton Friday January 2nd 2015

5.15pm Little Lord Nelson
6.45pm Tsarglas

Little Lord Nelson ran well on tapeta debut last month and is an interesting runner taking a big drop in trip for a trainer with a good record at Wolverhampton.

Stable mate Tsarglas was a last time out winner and there may be more to come with Adam Kirby an eye-catching booking.

As always, if you are having a bet on these selections then please wager sensibly as these systems are very much a work in progress.

Best of luck.

Nick Hardman

Betting Insiders

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