Tag Archives: shot

Big Priced Yankee

We're running a bit late with today's message and that's because one of the best tipsters online has some free tips to give away but I'm not allowed to tell you before 12:00.

If you haven't heard of Nicky Doyle he's a hot shot Irish tipster who tips for the big races both sides of the water.

He tops the tipster proofing tables at Race Advisor with Betfair SP profit of 123 points and 177 points profit at advised prices.

Nicky is getting ready for Cheltenham and would like to give you his selections for a big priced Cheltenham Yankee.

To get these selections as well as free tips for the Saturday big race every week.

And these free Saturday tips have proven to be highly profitable with 150 points made in 2014.

To get these free goodies just Click Here and register your email address.

Today's Selection

13:50 Towcester Dusky Legend – win bet – 11/8 Boylesports

5/1 Selection Today

I hope you had a little bet on Hernando Torres yesterday and got the 11/2 that was available when I mailed you.

Even better than that I hope you joined Gary for the full Trixie!

The other two selections both placed and overall 19.78 points were made by members to advised prices, with SP producing over 10 points profit on the day.

There's still time to join Gary at http://bookiesenemyno1.com

Today I've snaffled you a selection from another top tipping service to see if I can repeat the feat.

The Racing Consultants is the joint name of the team that is David Massey and Rory Delargy.

These guys are proper old school form students and know the form book inside and out.

Since they started sharing their tips back in June last year they haven't had a losing month.

They have three bets for today's racing and the one I've taken is a 5/1 shot in a 6 runner race…

Sedgefield 2.30 – 2m1f Handicap Hurdle (class 3)

The last time James Ewart’s UN GUET APENS saw Sedgefield was in a handicap chase just over a year ago. On that occasion he jumped well and never gave his supporters  a moment’s worry, coming right away from three out.

He improved on that when beating the 130 rated Supreme Asset at Carlisle in April, which saw his rating go to 133 over fences. There have been excuses for two of his three runs since then, as they were over a trip that looks too far (and the cheekpieces he seems to need were missing on one occasion too), but if judging him on the run in between, when getting beaten a short head by Indian Voyage back at Carlisle off 132, it’s not difficult to see he’s well handicapped today back over hurdles on a mark of 128.

With trip, ground and track all ideal, and the cheekpieces returning,  there seems little reason why he shouldn’t run his race.

2.30 Sedgefield – 1pt win Un Guet Apens (5-1 Hills, Bet365, Corals)

For immediate access to the other two selections today join the Racing Consultants here http://racingconsultants.co.uk

 

 

National Hunt Trainer Facts

This morning I'm trying to get a handle on where I want to go with a new National Hunt system, so I'm looking at some facts and figures in the hope that an idea of angle jumps out at me.

So I've logged into Horse Race Base and loaded up all Hurdle runs in 2013 and so far in 2014 and I'm looking at the trainers to see where the best returns are.

If I look at trainers that have had more than 75 runs since January 1st 2013 and sort them by strike rate, then the trainer with the highest strike rate is Willie Mullins…

Runs = 641

Wins = 186

Strike Rate = 29%

Loss at industry SP = -124.03

ROI = – 19.35 %

I'd say a strike rate of 29% from all hurdlers sent out is huge. A loss of 19.35% on turnover is a lot, and although I'm sure that can be improved by betting at Betfair SP I would imagine a lot of these were favourites and that the Betfair SP returns wouldn't be a great deal better.

Interestingly, just down the list a bit is Nicky Henderson with a 24% strike rate but only a 7% loss on turnover…

Runs = 525

Wins = 125

Strike Rate = 24%

Loss at industry SP = -36.75

ROI = – 7 %

So my next task is going to be to have a closer look at the hurdlers of these two trainers.

First off, I'm interested in how many runners Willie Mullins actually sends over to the UK and whether they perform better or worse than his Irish runners.

The answer is that only 61 came to the UK in the period and the strike rate with these 61 was 21% and the loss of turnover was 29%.

So the profit and runners will be in Ireland.

The table below shows the breakdown of the Irish runners by track, you will see there are some huge strike rates at some of the courses…

Willie Mullins Irish Course Run 2013 - 14 table

Next I looked at position in the odds market and this is interesting out of the 580 runs that Willie had in Ireland since January 1st 2013 a whopping 469 were ranked in the first four in the betting market.

How many that were not in the first four in the betting do you think went on to win?

Well according to Horse Race Base the answer is none!

In fact if we only bet Willie Mullins hurdlers that run in Ireland and are in the first three in the betting then we have a system that just edges into profit at Industry SP.

If we only look at those ridden by Paul Townend or Ruby Walsh, who take most of the rides then we have the following figures since January 1st 2013…

Runs = 331

Wins = 139

Strike Rate = 41.99 %

Profit at industry SP = 22

ROI = 6.65%

That's a great strike rate and if you can't stomach losing runs then these rules will find you bets that see you collecting regularly, but these horses are over bet, especially when Ruby is on board, so the profit isn't huge.

Today's Selection

2.40 Redcar Mixed Message – win bet – 5/6 Bet 365

 

 

Jumping Propects 2015

Jumping ProspectsToday I'm looking at a book called Jumping Prospects that has been recommended to me.

It is written by racing stalwart John Morris.

The book is priced at £15 and was published late September and is aimed at those who like to follow trainers and also spot a few big priced winners that are under the radar.

There is comprehensive coverage of 21 Trainers along with comments on 475 of the horses in their care.

There are also ‘stable eyecatchers’ at the end of each interview to help you focus on those the author really likes.

Last year’s edition produced 242 winners and included winners at 40/1, 33/1, 25/1 and 20/1.

This is the 23rd edition of the book and clearly offers something that is worthwhile to many.

Here's the edited highlights of the Amazon blurb…

21 Stable Interviews with various jumps trainers including: Kim Bailey, Ali Stronge, rebecca Curtis, James Ewart, Harry Fry, Warren Greatrex, Anthony Honeyball, Nicky Henderson, Alan King, Emma Lavelle, Charlie Longsdon, Donald McCain, Paul Nicholls, Dr Richard Newland, Ben Pauling, Oliver Sherwood, Dan Skelton, Jamie Snowden, Tom Symonds, Colin Tizzard, Robert Walford.

John says: “Once again I have visited some of the major jumping stables along with other horses that might slip under the radar. The energy you pick up from my stable tour will fuel your betting tank for a long, long time!”

The Jumping Prospects book is guaranteed to uncover many winners during the autumn and winter jumps season.

When you purchase your copy of Jumping Prospects it will pay for YOUR outlay many times over, as it has the answers to future winners likely to appear during the jumps campaign.

You can obtain a copy by visiting http://www.dailypunt.com/jumpingprospects 

Today's Selection

9.10 Kempton Fiftyshadesofgrey – eachway bet – 11/2 Bet 365

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close