This morning I'm trying to get a handle on where I want to go with a new National Hunt system, so I'm looking at some facts and figures in the hope that an idea of angle jumps out at me.
So I've logged into Horse Race Base and loaded up all Hurdle runs in 2013 and so far in 2014 and I'm looking at the trainers to see where the best returns are.
If I look at trainers that have had more than 75 runs since January 1st 2013 and sort them by strike rate, then the trainer with the highest strike rate is Willie Mullins…
Runs = 641
Wins = 186
Strike Rate = 29%
Loss at industry SP = -124.03
ROI = – 19.35 %
I'd say a strike rate of 29% from all hurdlers sent out is huge. A loss of 19.35% on turnover is a lot, and although I'm sure that can be improved by betting at Betfair SP I would imagine a lot of these were favourites and that the Betfair SP returns wouldn't be a great deal better.
Interestingly, just down the list a bit is Nicky Henderson with a 24% strike rate but only a 7% loss on turnover…
Runs = 525
Wins = 125
Strike Rate = 24%
Loss at industry SP = -36.75
ROI = – 7 %
So my next task is going to be to have a closer look at the hurdlers of these two trainers.
First off, I'm interested in how many runners Willie Mullins actually sends over to the UK and whether they perform better or worse than his Irish runners.
The answer is that only 61 came to the UK in the period and the strike rate with these 61 was 21% and the loss of turnover was 29%.
So the profit and runners will be in Ireland.
The table below shows the breakdown of the Irish runners by track, you will see there are some huge strike rates at some of the courses…
Next I looked at position in the odds market and this is interesting out of the 580 runs that Willie had in Ireland since January 1st 2013 a whopping 469 were ranked in the first four in the betting market.
How many that were not in the first four in the betting do you think went on to win?
Well according to Horse Race Base the answer is none!
In fact if we only bet Willie Mullins hurdlers that run in Ireland and are in the first three in the betting then we have a system that just edges into profit at Industry SP.
If we only look at those ridden by Paul Townend or Ruby Walsh, who take most of the rides then we have the following figures since January 1st 2013…
Runs = 331
Wins = 139
Strike Rate = 41.99 %
Profit at industry SP = 22
ROI = 6.65%
That's a great strike rate and if you can't stomach losing runs then these rules will find you bets that see you collecting regularly, but these horses are over bet, especially when Ruby is on board, so the profit isn't huge.
Today's Selection
2.40 Redcar Mixed Message – win bet – 5/6 Bet 365
SP Before the Off
Malcolm explains how we can know the Betfair SP and bet based on Betfair SP before the off!
Here's Malcolm…
Just about every system you come across on the web would first have been created using past data.
If this is the case then the result will be shown using either SP (Industry Standard starting price) or BSP (Betfair Starting Price) for results.
There is nothing really wrong with this because it is the only way of giving people the chance to check the results they are seeing as being accurate.
But where it does cause an issue and pose a problem is when it is a price sensitive system or a system that relies on being on a particular ranked runner, like the favourite.
BSP and SP are calculated at the off.
You may think by looking at the ranking a few seconds before the off will tell you who was favourite, second favourited etc…
But often this isn't the case. The BSP/SP announced ranking can be different to the just before the off rank.
A short test we did with Betfair some time back clearly showed that the rankings can differ by as much as 1 or 2 runners in every 10.
Maybe this doesn’t sound too bad…
…But when you consider you could be following hundreds or even thousands of bets over the course of a year…this could easily change the results you were expecting or the results being advertised.
The same is true of price. The price before the off is often different to BSP/SP causing even more inaccuracies in your system.
So what can you do to make sure you are on the correct runner or within the correct price range?
You may already know that just as Betfair's market goes in-play the BSP price and ranking is made available through their API.
So we have developed a great feature on the Grey Horse Bot that allows the bot to read the BSP price and Ranking as soon as it happens.
This gives the Grey Horse Bot user the opportunity to choose which ranked runner to bet on or to only place a bet into the market if it is within the price range you require.
When you create your own system it should be part of your testing to determine if you get better prices before the off or in-play. You can test both automatically with the Grey Horse Bot.
Thank you for reading I really do appreciate it.
Malcolm
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Malcolm is the creator of a number of Betfair automated betting products like the Grey Horse Bot. He also writes articles for Betfair. Apart from automation Malcolm likes creating and testing systems and believes his readers should have all the statistical facts available to make proper informed decisions.
If you have any questions about bots or automation please add a comment and we'll try and answer them.
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