This morning I'm trying to get a handle on where I want to go with a new National Hunt system, so I'm looking at some facts and figures in the hope that an idea of angle jumps out at me.
So I've logged into Horse Race Base and loaded up all Hurdle runs in 2013 and so far in 2014 and I'm looking at the trainers to see where the best returns are.
If I look at trainers that have had more than 75 runs since January 1st 2013 and sort them by strike rate, then the trainer with the highest strike rate is Willie Mullins…
Runs = 641
Wins = 186
Strike Rate = 29%
Loss at industry SP = -124.03
ROI = – 19.35 %
I'd say a strike rate of 29% from all hurdlers sent out is huge. A loss of 19.35% on turnover is a lot, and although I'm sure that can be improved by betting at Betfair SP I would imagine a lot of these were favourites and that the Betfair SP returns wouldn't be a great deal better.
Interestingly, just down the list a bit is Nicky Henderson with a 24% strike rate but only a 7% loss on turnover…
Runs = 525
Wins = 125
Strike Rate = 24%
Loss at industry SP = -36.75
ROI = – 7 %
So my next task is going to be to have a closer look at the hurdlers of these two trainers.
First off, I'm interested in how many runners Willie Mullins actually sends over to the UK and whether they perform better or worse than his Irish runners.
The answer is that only 61 came to the UK in the period and the strike rate with these 61 was 21% and the loss of turnover was 29%.
So the profit and runners will be in Ireland.
The table below shows the breakdown of the Irish runners by track, you will see there are some huge strike rates at some of the courses…
Next I looked at position in the odds market and this is interesting out of the 580 runs that Willie had in Ireland since January 1st 2013 a whopping 469 were ranked in the first four in the betting market.
How many that were not in the first four in the betting do you think went on to win?
Well according to Horse Race Base the answer is none!
In fact if we only bet Willie Mullins hurdlers that run in Ireland and are in the first three in the betting then we have a system that just edges into profit at Industry SP.
If we only look at those ridden by Paul Townend or Ruby Walsh, who take most of the rides then we have the following figures since January 1st 2013…
Runs = 331
Wins = 139
Strike Rate = 41.99 %
Profit at industry SP = 22
ROI = 6.65%
That's a great strike rate and if you can't stomach losing runs then these rules will find you bets that see you collecting regularly, but these horses are over bet, especially when Ruby is on board, so the profit isn't huge.
Today's Selection
2.40 Redcar Mixed Message – win bet – 5/6 Bet 365
Greyhounds: What does it all mean
If you've been following along with the greyhound form and especially if you are new to the dogs you're are bound to have seen something in the race comments that you didnt understand.
So today I'm just going to run through all the standard abbreviations.
A – always
Aw – away
Awk – awkward
B – badly
Blk – baulked
Bmp – bumped
Bnc – bunched
Bnd – bend
Brk – break
Btn – beaten
Chl – challenged
Ck – checked
Ckg – checking
Clr – clear
CmAg – cameagain
Crd – crowded
Crmp – cramped
Dis – distance
Disp – disputed
DNF – did not finish
Drpd – dropped
E – early
EvCH – every chance
F – fast
Fcd – forced
Fd – faded
Fin – finished
Fr – From
Hgh – high
HldOn – held on
Imp – impeded
Jkt – jacket
Jp – jump(ed)
Lcd – lacked
Ld – lead/led
Lm – lame
Ln – line
Lse – loose
Mid – middle
Mod – moderately
Msd – missed
Mzl – muzzle
Nr – near
Nv – never
Outp – outpaced
P – pace(d)
Pkd – pecked
Q – quick
Rec – record
ReRn – re-run
Rls rails/railed
Rn – ran/run
RnIn – run-in
RnUp – run-up
S – slow
Shw – showed
Slp – slipped
Sn – soon
Stb – stumbled
Stk – struck
Stt – start
Styd – stayed
Swv – swerved
T – to
Tbl – trouble
Th'out – throughout
Tp – trap
V – very
W – wide
Wll – well
Wn – won
... ..., Art, Aw, Awk, badly Blk, beat, beaten Chl, Ben, bend, bend Brk, bet, Bmp, Bnc, Bnd, Btn, bunch, cameagain Crd, challenge, chance, checking Clr, Chepstow, Chepstow Dangerous, Ckg, clear CmAg, comment, comments, courtesy, cramped Dis, crowd, crowded Crmp, Danger, distance, distance Disp, DNF, dog, dogs, Drpd, early EvCH, end, fast Fcd, Fd, Fin, form, Fr, gain, GER, GOING, greyhound form, heck, Hgh, high HldOn, Imp, iSP, jacket Jp, jump, King, lack, lame Ln, Lcd, lead, line, line Lse, Lm, loose Mid, Low, mag, men, middle, middle Mod, miss, moderately Msd, muzzle Nr, NR, pace, Pkd, quick Rec, race, race comments, rails, ran/run RnIn, re-run Rls, record ReRn, run, run-in RnUp, selection, Selection courtesy, Slip, slow Shw, Slp, Sn, SP, Stan, standard, standard abbreviations, Star, Stb, Stk, Tbl, thing, Tp, trainer, Trainer Trends, trap, Trends, trouble, UK, war, way, ways, wide Wll, win, Win bet, Wn, Won, |Winners |Strike Rate