Sn Archives • Daily Punt

National Hunt Trainer Facts

Posted on October 27, 2014 by Dave French • 4 Comments

This morning I'm trying to get a handle on where I want to go with a new National Hunt system, so I'm looking at some facts and figures in the hope that an idea of angle jumps out at me.

So I've logged into Horse Race Base and loaded up all Hurdle runs in 2013 and so far in 2014 and I'm looking at the trainers to see where the best returns are.

If I look at trainers that have had more than 75 runs since January 1st 2013 and sort them by strike rate, then the trainer with the highest strike rate is Willie Mullins…

Runs = 641

Wins = 186

Strike Rate = 29%

Loss at industry SP = -124.03

ROI = – 19.35 %

I'd say a strike rate of 29% from all hurdlers sent out is huge. A loss of 19.35% on turnover is a lot, and although I'm sure that can be improved by betting at Betfair SP I would imagine a lot of these were favourites and that the Betfair SP returns wouldn't be a great deal better.

Interestingly, just down the list a bit is Nicky Henderson with a 24% strike rate but only a 7% loss on turnover…

Runs = 525

Wins = 125

Strike Rate = 24%

Loss at industry SP = -36.75

ROI = – 7 %

So my next task is going to be to have a closer look at the hurdlers of these two trainers.

First off, I'm interested in how many runners Willie Mullins actually sends over to the UK and whether they perform better or worse than his Irish runners.

The answer is that only 61 came to the UK in the period and the strike rate with these 61 was 21% and the loss of turnover was 29%.

So the profit and runners will be in Ireland.

The table below shows the breakdown of the Irish runners by track, you will see there are some huge strike rates at some of the courses…

Next I looked at position in the odds market and this is interesting out of the 580 runs that Willie had in Ireland since January 1st 2013 a whopping 469 were ranked in the first four in the betting market.

How many that were not in the first four in the betting do you think went on to win?

Well according to Horse Race Base the answer is none!

In fact if we only bet Willie Mullins hurdlers that run in Ireland and are in the first three in the betting then we have a system that just edges into profit at Industry SP.

If we only look at those ridden by Paul Townend or Ruby Walsh, who take most of the rides then we have the following figures since January 1st 2013…

Runs = 331

Wins = 139

Strike Rate = 41.99 %

Profit at industry SP = 22

ROI = 6.65%

That's a great strike rate and if you can't stomach losing runs then these rules will find you bets that see you collecting regularly, but these horses are over bet, especially when Ruby is on board, so the profit isn't huge.

Today's Selection

2.40 Redcar Mixed Message – win bet – 5/6 Bet 365

Filed Under: Systems
*Figures, ... ..., ads, age, aligncenter, angle, answer, best returns, bet, Betfair, Betfair SP, Betfair SP returns, bets, betting, betting market, bit, board, breakdown, BSP, Class, closer look, course, courses, edge, end, fact, facts, fav, Favour, favourite, favourites, Fin, Fit, form, Fr, GOING, Great, great deal, great strike rate, hand, highest strike rate, horse, horse race, Horse Race Base, horses, huge strike rate, huge strike rates, hurdle, Hurdlers, idea, Imp, industry, industry SP, Inter, IRE, Ireland, Irish runners, jump, jumps, King, land, list, look, loser, losing run, losing runs, loss, Low, mag, man, mark, market, message, morning, nation, National Hunt, new National Hunt, Nicky Henderson, odds, position, profit, Punt, race, Redcar, Redcar Mixed Message, rest, return, rides, ROI, Ruby Walsh, rule, rules, run, runner, runners, runners Willie Mullins, runs, selection, shot, Sn, sort, SP, SP returns, SR, stomach, strike rate, strike rates, table, Tom, Tp, track, trainer, trainers, turn, UK, Walsh, WH, width=, Willie Mullins, Willie Mullins hurdlers, win, Win bet, wins, Wn, |Winners |Strike Rate

Jumping Propects 2015

Posted on October 23, 2014 by Dave French • 2 Comments

Today I'm looking at a book called Jumping Prospects that has been recommended to me.

It is written by racing stalwart John Morris.

The book is priced at £15 and was published late September and is aimed at those who like to follow trainers and also spot a few big priced winners that are under the radar.

There is comprehensive coverage of 21 Trainers along with comments on 475 of the horses in their care.

There are also ‘stable eyecatchers’ at the end of each interview to help you focus on those the author really likes.

Last year’s edition produced 242 winners and included winners at 40/1, 33/1, 25/1 and 20/1.

This is the 23rd edition of the book and clearly offers something that is worthwhile to many.

Here's the edited highlights of the Amazon blurb…

21 Stable Interviews with various jumps trainers including: Kim Bailey, Ali Stronge, rebecca Curtis, James Ewart, Harry Fry, Warren Greatrex, Anthony Honeyball, Nicky Henderson, Alan King, Emma Lavelle, Charlie Longsdon, Donald McCain, Paul Nicholls, Dr Richard Newland, Ben Pauling, Oliver Sherwood, Dan Skelton, Jamie Snowden, Tom Symonds, Colin Tizzard, Robert Walford.

John says: “Once again I have visited some of the major jumping stables along with other horses that might slip under the radar. The energy you pick up from my stable tour will fuel your betting tank for a long, long time!”

The Jumping Prospects book is guaranteed to uncover many winners during the autumn and winter jumps season.

When you purchase your copy of Jumping Prospects it will pay for YOUR outlay many times over, as it has the answers to future winners likely to appear during the jumps campaign.

You can obtain a copy by visiting http://www.dailypunt.com/jumpingprospects

Today's Selection

9.10 Kempton Fiftyshadesofgrey – eachway bet – 11/2 Bet 365

Filed Under: Systems
... ..., ads, age, Alan King, Ali Stronge, Amazon blurb, answer, answers, Art, author, Ben, Ben Pauling, bet, betting, big price, big priced win, big priced winner, big priced winners, book, campaign, care, catch, Charlie Longsdon, Class, Colin Tizzard, comment, comments, comprehensive coverage, copy, Dan Skelton, Donald McCain, Dr Richard Newland, eachway, eachway bet, edition, Emma Lavelle, end, energy, eye, focus, Fr, future, future winner, future winners, gain, Great, guarantee, Harry Fry, help, highlight, horse, horses, Inter, interview, James Ewart, Jamie Snowden, jump, jumping, Jumping Prospects, Jumping Prospects book, jumps, jumps campaign, jumps season, jumps trainers, Kempton, Kim Bailey, King, land, Light, likes, long time, look, Low, LTO, mag, man, men, Nicholls, Nicky Henderson, offer, offers, Oliver Sherwood, outlay many times, page, Paul Nicholls, price, prospects, pub, Punt, purchase, racing, radar, Rebecca Curtis, Robert Walford, season, selection, shade, Sherwood, shot, site, size, Slip, Sn, SP, SR, Stable Interviews, stable tour, stalwart John Morris, table, tee, thing, time, times, title, Tom, Tom Symonds, TOUR, Tp, trainer, trainers, various jumps trainers, view, war, Warren Greatrex, way, way bet, WH, width=, win, winner, winners, winter, winter jumps season, worth, |Winners |Strike Rate, ‘stable eyecatchers

Sire Systems

Posted on October 21, 2014 by Dave French • 0 Comments

Back in February this year I loaded some system rules into Horse Race Base around the sire Dom Alco (FR)*.

Basically the system rules were just to bet the 5 to 8 year old progeny of this sire when running over distances of 2 mile 6 furlongs to 3 mile 1 furlong.

A simple little system to capture the runners of a sire who is starting to have more runners and whose runners seem to be outperforming the market over recent years.

Here are the returns since I created the system…

Runs = 21
Wins = 5
Strike Rate = 23.8%
Profit 1 point level stakes at iSP = 18.25
ROI at iSP = 86.9%

There could probably be more rules added to this to increase the strike rate, but there isn't a huge amount of data to work with.

Anyway the reason I mention this today is because the system has a qualifier and I'm going to have a little each way bet on it…

Today's Selection

3.40 Exeter Sixty Something – eachway bet – 15/2 Bet 365

* Of course with the death of Dom Alco in 2010 this is only a short term angle 🙁

Filed Under: Systems
... ..., angle, Art, bet, course, data, distance, Dom Alco, eachway, eachway bet, ears, Fit, form, Fr, furlongs, GOING, horse, horse race, Horse Race Base, Imp, IRE, iSP, level stake, level stakes, mark, market, men, mention, mile, mount, old progeny, point, point level stakes, profit, qualifier, race, reason, return, ROI, rule, rules, run, runner, runners, running, runs, selection, simple, sire Dom Alco, Sn, SP, stake, stakes, Stan, Star, strike rate, term, thing, Tp, turn, way, way bet, WH, win, wins, work, |Winners |Strike Rate

Up In Class by Trainer Nicky Henderson

Posted on October 20, 2014 by Dave French • 3 Comments

So today I am getting started on the job of researching individual trainers at individual courses when their novice hurdlers step up in class.

I'm going to start off with Nicky Henderson, simply because he has the most runners of the trainers that we have selected for this system.

It may be a case the Nicky's charges are over-bet because of his status, but we'll look at the data and see what we can find.

Because we are drilling down deeper and deeper the number of runners meeting a set of criteria will be less and less and it may be tricky to determine if a strike rate and profit is significant or not.

When looking at which courses are most profitable for Nicky Henderson, novice hurdlers that are upped in class, I have only looked at courses where there have been at least 10 qualifiers in the last 10 years.

Here's the table…

What jumps out is the huge profit (ROI) and strike rates at Huntingdon, Kempton and Ludlow.

Nicky Henderson is based in Upper Lambourn which is on the M4 and relatively convenient for the top class venues of Newbury, Cheltenham, Ascot, Kempton and Sandown.

Of the courses listed above Huntingdon is the furthest at around 100 miles from base.

I'm not sure if we should read something into the class of the tracks, I suppose I'm surprised that Towcester isnt in the profit list, but the stats don't lie. This is definitely how it panned out in the past, let's hope it can steer us towards some winners in the future.

Today's Selection

5.10 Pontefract Dark Ruler – win bet – 5/1 Bet Victor

Filed Under: Systems
... ..., ads, age, aligncenter, Art, Ascot, bet, Bet Victor, BSP, case, charges, Cheltenham, chin, Class, class venues, course, courses, criteria, data, ears, end, Fin, Fit, Fr, future, GOING, huge profit, hurdle, Hurdlers, Imp, individual courses, individual trainers, isnt, job, jump, jumps, Kempton, King, list, Listed, look, Low, Ludlow, mag, meeting, mile, miles, Newbury, Nicky Henderson, novice hurdlers, number, pan, past, Pontefract, Pontefract Dark Ruler, profit, profit list, Punt, qualifier, qualifiers, research, rise, ROI, RPR, rule, run, runner, runners, Sandown, search, selection, set, shot, Sn, SP, SR, Star, start, stat, stats, Steer, Step, strike rate, strike rates, surprise, table, tee, term, thing, Towcester, Towcester isnt, Tp, track, tracks, trainer, trainers, Upper Lambourn, war, WH, width=, win, Win bet, winner, winners, Wn, |Winners |Strike Rate

Tag Archives: Sn

National Hunt Trainer Facts

Jumping Propects 2015

Sire Systems

Up In Class by Trainer Nicky Henderson