Tag Archives: sort

National Hunt Trainer Facts

This morning I'm trying to get a handle on where I want to go with a new National Hunt system, so I'm looking at some facts and figures in the hope that an idea of angle jumps out at me.

So I've logged into Horse Race Base and loaded up all Hurdle runs in 2013 and so far in 2014 and I'm looking at the trainers to see where the best returns are.

If I look at trainers that have had more than 75 runs since January 1st 2013 and sort them by strike rate, then the trainer with the highest strike rate is Willie Mullins…

Runs = 641

Wins = 186

Strike Rate = 29%

Loss at industry SP = -124.03

ROI = – 19.35 %

I'd say a strike rate of 29% from all hurdlers sent out is huge. A loss of 19.35% on turnover is a lot, and although I'm sure that can be improved by betting at Betfair SP I would imagine a lot of these were favourites and that the Betfair SP returns wouldn't be a great deal better.

Interestingly, just down the list a bit is Nicky Henderson with a 24% strike rate but only a 7% loss on turnover…

Runs = 525

Wins = 125

Strike Rate = 24%

Loss at industry SP = -36.75

ROI = – 7 %

So my next task is going to be to have a closer look at the hurdlers of these two trainers.

First off, I'm interested in how many runners Willie Mullins actually sends over to the UK and whether they perform better or worse than his Irish runners.

The answer is that only 61 came to the UK in the period and the strike rate with these 61 was 21% and the loss of turnover was 29%.

So the profit and runners will be in Ireland.

The table below shows the breakdown of the Irish runners by track, you will see there are some huge strike rates at some of the courses…

Willie Mullins Irish Course Run 2013 - 14 table

Next I looked at position in the odds market and this is interesting out of the 580 runs that Willie had in Ireland since January 1st 2013 a whopping 469 were ranked in the first four in the betting market.

How many that were not in the first four in the betting do you think went on to win?

Well according to Horse Race Base the answer is none!

In fact if we only bet Willie Mullins hurdlers that run in Ireland and are in the first three in the betting then we have a system that just edges into profit at Industry SP.

If we only look at those ridden by Paul Townend or Ruby Walsh, who take most of the rides then we have the following figures since January 1st 2013…

Runs = 331

Wins = 139

Strike Rate = 41.99 %

Profit at industry SP = 22

ROI = 6.65%

That's a great strike rate and if you can't stomach losing runs then these rules will find you bets that see you collecting regularly, but these horses are over bet, especially when Ruby is on board, so the profit isn't huge.

Today's Selection

2.40 Redcar Mixed Message – win bet – 5/6 Bet 365

 

 

Betfair Trader

Today I am mostly reading about trading.

There is an interesting article in this months SmartSigger (Get your 1st month free here http://dailypunt.com/smartsig ) about the different types of Betfair trader and what sort of trader you might be.

As well as detailing different trading strategies, it also suggested a super fast trading tool which is free to use 🙂

I haven't tried it yet, but it definitely sounds like it is worth a play.

Here are some of the key features…

– Unbeatable speed – super fast trading on Betfair

– Grid Interface – single click trading, compact Betfair-style trading grid

– Ladder Interface – full depth of market, single click trading, queue position and built-in robot

– Position In Queue (PIQ) – provides a real-time estimated PIQ, arguably the most important and unique feature of our ladder!

– Automated Trading Robot – included is a unique Betfair bot, watch it trade on the ladder for you!

– Multi-Market – trade several different markets simultaneously

– Managed Markets (Guardian) – works in the background to gather data from multiple ‘managed' markets and maintain offset bets

– Tick Offset – automatically sends an opposing bet, after you get matched

– Stop Loss – automatically limits your losses. Trailing Stop Loss can also protect profits

– Racing Autopilot – it can automatically select each horse race and move forward
Greening (Cash-out) – a single click to lock in your profit (or loss) regardless of the outcome

– Advanced Charts – possibly the most comprehensive integrated charting available in any Betfair application

I think the most interesting and important feature for the trader is the advanced charts!

You can get the software here http://www.cymatic.co.uk/

If you've used it before I'd love to have your feedback in the comments.

Today's Selection

8.45 Kempton Four Cheers – eachway bet – 14/1 Bet Victor

Horse Racing Ratings

Grey Horse BotToday we have our third guest column from Malcolm Pett of Greyhorse Bot fame.

—–

It’s strange how you see yourself…

I have always thought of myself as out going sort of person who likes a challenge and is not afraid to try something new.

Although I haven’t done as much as some people, I have had my fair share of adventures including, windsurfing, flying lessons, Scuba diving and sailing. Those are among some of the things I have tried and learned.

But while talking with some friends who I have only known over the last few years they said I was more of a “nerdy” type of guy.

When I quizzed them about why that was their impression of me?

Their answer was simply I am always talking about computers, programming, databases, 3d printers and lately quadcopters….. Nerdy!

Although I thought about defending my own impression of myself I have to admit…

…As the one that my friends tend to ask about anything technical it was going to be a hard battle to win.

So “Nerdy” I am…

To be honest I actually don’t mind the term although I am probably not exactly as some on-line dictionaries explain it…

“A person who is single-minded or accomplished in scientific or technical pursuits but is felt to be socially inept”

Any one that knows me will certainly not call me “socially inept”.

“One obsessed with something specified: a computer nerd.”

Which is probably what my friends were thinking when they used the term.

So when I start talking about System development or statistical modelling then you will probably think the same.

One of the things I love doing as a “computer nerd” is analysing our in house database to find horse racing systems.

Horse Racing Ratings

Lately I have been spending a great deal of time on developing ratings.

This is where you actually assign a number to each runner in a race and then rank them by that number or simply use the rating you have assigned them.

The official rating (OR) which you find on race cards is an example of this…

The fascination is in the way you create the ratings.

A trick you may want to use is to combine a number of ratings from different sources to create what some people refer to as “Power Ratings”.

So you could use the OR, RPR from the racing post and another rating like Sporting Life’s 5 star rating.

Add them altogether and you have ratings from 3 different sources which may point to another winner rather than the favourite.

I would suggest sticking to handicaps when you begin purely because all runners tend to be rated unlike say “maidens”.

I have tried this myself in the past and it can work quite well but the downside is the work involved getting all the information together daily.

I much prefer automation, and because of that I like to build my ratings based on statistical information.

Like…

How often a horse that came 1st place last time out…Wins.

Or

How often a 3 year old Horse wins a handicap.

You can see an example of how you could do it here.

See the ratings

I am a great believer in ratings (not just because I am a nerd) because I feel they give you a consistent way of selecting runners which tends to also give you a consistent strike rate.

The trick is to find the ones that offer value.

Thank you as always for reading I really appreciate it.

Malcolm

Malcolm Pett is the creator of the Greyhorse Bot which has been automating betting since 2006 – http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

15:05:00 Sandown 1 Alonsoa – win bet 11/8 Boylesport

Hawkeye – Class Droppers

Hawkeye TipsPeter Hawkeye landed another huge gamble yesterday with Blaine, members were advised to back it at 16/1 in the morning and then the gamble commenced.

Blaine was bet all the way down to 6/1 and won nicely.

Daily Punt still has an exclusive offer to join Hawkeye racing for the first month for just £7.99

You wont find this offer on any other site and this link takes you direct to Paypal, once you have completed the Paypal you will receive an email with log in details.

Click Here to Trial Hawkeye Tips => http://dailypunt.com/hawkeye

Todays Peter looks at Class Droppers…

It has long been an established practice in American racing that Class Droppers are horses to be interested in.

However because it is a known winning factor the pools tend to over bet and these sorts and they can start at pretty short prices.

But in the UK I have noticed that class droppers can be ignored in the markets.

Now I am not talking about the low grade racing, but the listed/graded racing.

Today I see that Battle Of Marengo 2.40 Newbury, who has been tackling group 2 & 1 company over the past year or so is now tackling listed company today.

He is 12’1 so I would be interested each way.

Peter Hawkeye is the tipping brains behind Hawkeye Tips find out more about his service at http://hawkeyetips.com but to get on his next big gamble for just £7.99 Click Here => http://dailypunt.com/hawkeye

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close