Tag Archives: Sporting Bet

Racing Systems & Selections

On Course Profits Issue 3

Do you know what AIORT is?

Apparently it's an Acronym for And, If, Or, Then. Which is the way that most of us create betting systems.

In the February On Course Profits magazine there is a very interesting article which explains why the way most people create betting systems doesn't work.

And explains exactly how to build systems that are much more profitable.

It makes for an interesting read and has certainly given me some food for thought.

You can get On Course Profits for free on iOS and Android devices here http://oncourseprofits.com.

If you don't have a suitable device you can also buy this edition on Amazon and read it on any device – Click Here.

We have our first qualifiers for the First Time Headgear system that we posted earlier on the week.

I'm not sure I'm ready to back these yet, maybe just very small stakes! You'll recall that we did the research on 2013 and 2014 data and that we then applied the rules to January 2015 and the results were excellent.

So there has been some forward testing.

Anyway it's up to you

First Time Headgear

13:35 Taunton 6 Flanagans Field – 20/1 Ladbrokes
14:35 Taunton 11 All Yours – 13/8 Sporting Bet

By the way 20/1 selections have been profitable in the past, but obviously the strike rate is very low.

There was a 25/1 winner on January 1st this year.

Today's Selection

Huntingdon 3.35 Chatez – win bet – 15/8 Boylesports

 

 

Big Winners great Strike rates…

Isn’t betting a funny thing…

On the one hand we want winners and the bigger the better…

…And on the other we want to win a lot with very few losers.

Big winners and a great Strike rates… Perfect!

Unfortunately it doesn’t quite work like that.

Big winners tend to mean lower strike rates.

Take “Elision” a system we have been testing over at the Grey Horse Bot web site since 28/08/2014.

It has an average winning price of 9.00 (pretty big).

It also has an average strike rate of 13.12% (not so big)

And since we started reviewing the system it has had a winning month of 51.39 and 40.32.

Sounds pretty good…right?

Well not quite…

Averages are funny things. They are made up of high and low figures.

The high ones are great because they produce the big profit months like above.

It’s the low ones that are a pain.

They tend to be the ones where you need to dig deep.

If you have done your homework and understand that longest losing runs do happen then you can ride them out.

If you haven’t then this is where you find out that staking too much from your bank on each selection can really be expensive.

Tipsters and systems have good runs, but they also have times when their natural strike rates adjust.

Whether you call it a “bad run”, “bad luck” or “The system doesn’t work”.

It will happen.

Elision proves this point.

Yes it has had some good months but it also has bad months.

The 28 month history shows us that this is not unusual…

…It’s all down to you and whether you believe the history or think the bad months are the signs of the system going bad.

Don’t ignore statistics…

 Losing runs will happen and the lower the strike rate the longer these will be and the more often they will happen.

Be prepared and reap, ignore and you will be forever losing.

You can check Elision out here

http://greyhorsebot.com/elision

Thanks

Malcolm Pett

http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

3:20 Newcastle Up And Go – win bet – 15/8 Sporting Bet

SAW 9 Winners

In last week’s post I told you about this new “open” test we have been doing over at the Grey Horse Bot website.

Since then we have had 9 winners and gained about 6 points if we took all the selections.
The test is also to see if it is more profitable to “stop at a winner” rather than just keep betting on every selection.

This is an interactive test based around one of our in house ratings and the morning and midday Betfair prices.

We are calling it “interactive” because you can choose the ratings figure to base the selections around.

I choose 220 and so far this month it has been far better to bet on every selection than it is to SAW.

That may not be true of every figure which is why we wanted people to experiment.

These are low priced and often (but not always) favourites.

Using 220 is giving an overall strike rate of 52.26% and an average price of 1.34.

We are doing a little better this month with an average strike rate of 56.52 but our average price is a little lower at 1.31.

270 is a good figure to go for if you want a better strike rate although 350 or above is better but it is hard to gauge how accurate they are because the amount of selections available in the results is quite low.

So far anything under 190 hasn’t performed very well this month unless you switch to SAW and use a maximum daily loss strategy of 3.

A loss strategy is important for SAW otherwise you can wipe out your profits very quickly on a losing run.

I know I go against the “value” idea with these types of low price test…

…But my argument is that if my average winning odds is higher than the strike rate suggest then haven’t we found value?

Ok maybe a little “tongue in cheek” and it is quite early days as far as this test is concerned.

If you would like to take part then pop over to the Grey Horse Bot web site.

http://greyhorsebot.com

Thanks

Malcolm
The Grey Horse Bot

Today's Selection

16:00:00 Newbury Might Bite – win bet – 13/8 Sporting Bet

System Selections

Hopefully you had a good Christmas and hopefully you were on Nick Hardman's selections for the King George and the Welsh National.

In the King George Nick gave

King George VI Chase:

Selection: Silviniaco Conti @5/2
Each-way alternative: Dynaste @8/1

Who finished first and second.

And for the Welsh National Nick gave

Welsh National trends horses:

Global Power @25/1
Emperor’s Choice @25/1
Amigo @14/1

Emperor’s Choice won with an SP of 8/1.

You can get more of Nick's insights at http://bettinginsiders.com

Onto today and a short post.

We only have Newbury racing today in the UK with Southwell and Kelso lost to the weather.

But two of our newest systems that have got off to a good start have selections at Newbury.

The Nicky Henderson Debutants system, which has had 5 wins from 12 runs since we created it and has a 118% ROI at iSP, has…

12:30 Newbury Top Notch – 10/11 Bet365, Bet victor

And the Nico de Boinville system which has only had two bets since we created it, but with one won at 7/1 has…

15:50 Newbury Laurium – 13/2 Sporting Bet

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