Tag Archives: story

Greyhound Baulking

So last time we looked at which dog had the fastest sectional times and was likely to lead.

But times don't tell the full story. There are other factors that effect the run up to the first bend and they can all be grouped together into one question.

That is will the dogs, or at least the one we are interested in, get a clear run to the bend and that's what we'll look at today.

Greyhounds run in a number of distinct styles and track positions.

There are those that want to run close to the rail and those (usually bigger dogs) that prefer to run out wide where the bends are easier to negotiate. Generally speaking when a dog leaves the trap he will aim to get in the position that he prefers.

This will be clearer if I use an extreme example.

If we have a dog that is too big to negotiate the bends near to the rail and needs to run wide around the bends then somewhere between the traps and the first bend he will want to get into the position that is most comfortable.

If that particular dog was starting in trap one then somewhere along the way he will cut in front of, or behind the dogs in traps two to six.

He will most likely bump into or impede some of these other dogs on his way to the bend.

This means that the sectional time that we expect from any other dog that is impeded will not be what we expect it to be. So for example in our screen shot from the last message our trap five may not have had an advantage if he was impeded by others along the way.

To assess the likelihood of any dog getting to the line as quickly as we expect we need to look at its previous races and those of the dogs around it to predict any problems.

Predicting likely trouble from the traps is more of an art than a science but there are clues a plenty in the race card.

First off you want to look for comments in the previous races of the runners. If a runner is slow or very slow away consistently then this is an advantage for the adjacent runners as they will have clear space around them.

Also look for comments regarding a dogs position at the start. You might find an indication that a dog heads for the rails at the start or heads wide at the start EG RlsStt would indicate that the dog in question headed for the inside rail at the start.

When you see comments like this you have to put them into the context of todays race. For example if a dog earns the comment RlsStt but is in trap one today then the comment is not relevant. However if he is in trap two then it may have negative consequences for trap one but be a positive sign for trap three.

Also look at what trap each dog has been running from if a dog is used to trap one but is today in trap three then it may be that he will head to his regular position near the rails.

Use all of the relevant comments and information to build a picture in your mind of how the run to the bend will pan out.

Malcolm Pett System Development

Today we have our regular column from Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com

Following on from last weeks article where we looked at the idea of selecting between two and ten selections a day and then seeing how good we are at getting winners.

After thinking about this for a while I decided I would try something a little different and select runners who at around 5 in the morning, were ranked 2nd according to Betfair's early prices.

Now I know this is probably a strange way of doing things and I knew I was going to get caught out by information appearing later that could change the ranking.

But as with all ideas you need somewhere to start.

I then had to filter out runners based on their current and past form.

But I didn’t go crazy I just used three key pointers that I thought from experience would help.

Here are the selections and results.


The original idea I had was, that I would then take these selections and look a bit deeper at the form and decide whether to use them or not.

I was also hoping that I would get at least 5 selections a day to use in order to this.

But actually that isn’t the way it worked out.

Some days there can be 5 or 6 selections but on others there is only 1 or even none at all.

Of course the easiest thing I could do is change the actual selection criteria…

…But on further study I think I am getting roughly around 24% to 28% strike rate which for a pretty simple selection process is, I think, pretty good.

One of the filters I have used (which I must admit I haven’t used very often in the past) is “Unexposed” horses.

I haven’t been very scientific about it…I have just filtered out horses that have had more than x (x being my secret number) runs.

It just appears the number I have chosen helps with finding winners.

I am also only using selections where the horse has run recently.

As with all systems getting a consistent strike rate is only half the story…

…Getting winning prices that cover your losses and make you a profit is the other half.

A 24% strike rate means I have to get average winning odds of 3.15 just to break even.

Saying all that…The selections haven’t done too well so far this month with only 1 winner from 12.

So it will be interesting to see if they pick up.

You can follow along with this test here.


Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm

The Grey Horse Bot

Today's Selection

Towcester 3.10 Leaderofthedance – win bet 3/1 Bet 365

A Winner a Day

Today Malcom Pett is back after an enforced break due to a major technical failure 🙁

Who said finding one winner per day was easy?

Over the years I have spent a lot of time trying to work out how to pick just one runner a day that will win.

I know it is not an easy task but you would think with experience that it should be possible.

Then I was talking to one of my “Tipster” friends who actually supplies a “one a day” tip to a select number of people.

After a bit of digging it turns out that even his single tip is his “Best” selection from his 3 top selections each day.

He said that he found out a long time ago that looking for just a single winner is very difficult, so he switched to finding 3 (originally 4) selections a day.

He said that friends he had talked to himself…

…All had a number between 3 and 10 that they would consider as their best selections a day.

They would then work out how to make money depending on the prices and how successful they were at getting winners from those selections.

He settled on 3 because he normally found at least one winner a day from that number of selections.

It also turns out that although he had come up with various staking plans the most simple one, was just to “stop” as soon as he got his first winner of the day.

He found this strategy had worked very well.

After a bit of arm twisting (long story to come later) he agreed to show me what he meant…

…In fact he agreed to show all our site visitors over at Grey Horse Bot his 3 selections a day.

You can follow along yourself here:


At the time of writing this he has already had 2 day’s where all 3 selections won.

Putting this tipsters tips aside…maybe this is a better strategy to adopt.

Instead of pressuring yourself to find just one winner, you could first find out if you can get better at selecting 1 winner out of 3 or even 1 winner from 5.

Once you can do this you may then be able to work out a money strategy that will allow you to make a profit from using just those selections.

From the looks of our tipsters selections so far he doesn’t just pick favourites but he does tend to pick strong contenders. Many of his winners are above even’s but probably within the top 3 in the betting order.

You can check out the selections here.

Thank-you as always for reading I really appreciate it.

Malcolm
The Grey Horse Bot.

Today's Selection

3.40 Taunton Kalimantan – win bet – 11/10 Coral

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