Tag Archives: strategy

SAW 9 Winners

In last week’s post I told you about this new “open” test we have been doing over at the Grey Horse Bot website.

Since then we have had 9 winners and gained about 6 points if we took all the selections.
The test is also to see if it is more profitable to “stop at a winner” rather than just keep betting on every selection.

This is an interactive test based around one of our in house ratings and the morning and midday Betfair prices.

We are calling it “interactive” because you can choose the ratings figure to base the selections around.

I choose 220 and so far this month it has been far better to bet on every selection than it is to SAW.

That may not be true of every figure which is why we wanted people to experiment.

These are low priced and often (but not always) favourites.

Using 220 is giving an overall strike rate of 52.26% and an average price of 1.34.

We are doing a little better this month with an average strike rate of 56.52 but our average price is a little lower at 1.31.

270 is a good figure to go for if you want a better strike rate although 350 or above is better but it is hard to gauge how accurate they are because the amount of selections available in the results is quite low.

So far anything under 190 hasn’t performed very well this month unless you switch to SAW and use a maximum daily loss strategy of 3.

A loss strategy is important for SAW otherwise you can wipe out your profits very quickly on a losing run.

I know I go against the “value” idea with these types of low price test…

…But my argument is that if my average winning odds is higher than the strike rate suggest then haven’t we found value?

Ok maybe a little “tongue in cheek” and it is quite early days as far as this test is concerned.

If you would like to take part then pop over to the Grey Horse Bot web site.

http://greyhorsebot.com

Thanks

Malcolm
The Grey Horse Bot

Today's Selection

16:00:00 Newbury Might Bite – win bet – 13/8 Sporting Bet

Backing Favourites, Profitable?

Today we have our regular Wednesday article from Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com

Can you make money backing favourites?

Most people tell you that there is no value in backing favourites and you should stay clear of them and look for those “outsiders” that come in now and then, at a really good value.

It sounds plausible except almost 80% of all winners come from the top 3 or 4 in the betting and so although it’s not rare to see an outsider come in at great value…

…It’s not easy finding and identifying them.

If you have read any of my articles then you are probably aware that I tend to go on about strike rate and average winning odds a lot.

There is good reason for this…

…They are important…very important.

At the end of the day all that matters is that these two figures stack up and make you a profit.

If you go for the lower strike rate range then you will need higher AWO odds to make money.

Where a higher strike rate means you need lower AWO to make money.

So it doesn’t matter if you are on favourites or outsiders the figures still have to add up.

People love going on about finding value and if you like being a detective then it is really good fun.

But value bets winning are rare and so even if you get good at spotting them your strike rate is still going to be low, meaning you will get a lot of losers before finding a winner.

Looking for value bets also needs a big bank roll and you need to know when to take advantage of the odds available.

I follow a number of systems like this and you soon find out that you have to go through losing runs of 20, 30 or even 50, to make these systems work.

Not many people are prepared to do this and not many people have the bank to support it.

I am not saying you shouldn’t have high price value strategies…

…I am just saying it probably doesn’t want to be your only strategy.

But we have already talked about there being no profit in favourites so what else can we do?

Well let’s discuss that for a moment.

Let us say that we came up with a system that uses favourites and has an average strike rate of 50%.

That means “on average” we win one bet and we lose one bet.

So every time we lose…we lose 1 point which means every time we win we need to do better than 1 pt to make money.

In fact if we take Betfair prices where we can generally do a little better then we need an average winning price of 1.05, just to break even.

So let’s say for arguments sake we get on average a winning price 1.26 (2.26).

1.26 * 5% = 0.06 = 1.20 profit

So if we had 100 selections in a month and won on 50 of them it would look like this…

50 * 1.20 = 60 – 50 = 10 points.

So as you can see we don’t have to have a very high “average winning odds” to make a decent amount of points every month.

The thing is to test…it’s no good saying you cannot make money on favourites unless you try some strategies over 2 or 3 months.

If you pick well then even if you don’t get the prices you need. You are unlikely to lose as much as you would following a low strike rate high value system with long losing runs.

We are testing a number of high strike rate systems over at the Grey Horse Web site.

Check them out here.

http://greyhorsebot.com

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm

Today's Selection

6.50 Kempton Danas Present – win bet 11/4 Bet Victor

Tony McCoy OBE

Following on from Monday's article today I'm going to look at some stats from Champion Jockey Tony McCoy.

By the way yesterdays eachway bet that placed second was from the system we created on Monday.

Ok, so backing all of Tony's mounts would as you'd expect returns a loss, but not as a big a loss as I expected at 15% of stakes lost.

If we break that down by race type we see that Hurdles perform best with an excellent 27% strike rate from all hurdle start and a loss of just 11%.

Tony McCoy by Race Type Table

At this stage of my research I was pondering where to go next and looking down the list of factors and say ‘Going'.

My first thought was that, that is a factor that depends more on the particular horse than the jockey, but then I pictured AP pumping away, driving a tired horse home and thought I bet he does better in Heavy going than other jocks. And he does.

Over the last two years backing all of McCoys Hurdle rides on Heavy going has produced a 25% ROI and a 31% strike rate.

However over the long term this strategy has been pretty much break even, so maybe something to keep in mind rather than to bet blindly.

For today I'm going to wrap up with a look at how he performs for different trainers.

My thoughts are that as I've said for previous jockeys that I would expect them to be a losing proposition for their own stable rides, just because they have to ride everything and that seems to be the case with Jonjo O Neill rides showing a loss.

The table below shows every Hurdle ride since January 1st 2013 and I've sorted it by ROI to help spot the trainers who make a profit when they book the real McCoy.

McCoy Hurdles by Trainer

McCoy Hurdles by Trainer

McCoy Hurdles by Trainer

McCoy Hurdles by Trainer

McCoy Hurdles by Trainer

McCoy Hurdles by Trainer

 

Today's Selection

2:00 Ludlow Sin Bin – win bet – 4/1 Bet Victor

Improve Your Betting

I'm away today, but I've hooked you up with a replay of a very interesting webinar that took place on Saturday.

If you want to use ratings as part of your betting strategy and you want to have the ability to automate your betting of rated horses then this replay will be of interest.

Free Webinar

 

Click Here to register and watch now

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