Tag Archives: strategy

Beat The Odds and you Will Profit

Sometimes in life we need to remind ourselves of the fundamentals of whatever we are striving to be successful with in order to get our ship back on course.

With betting the biggest fundamental is value and the easiest way to make money from betting is to make your bets at odds that are better than starting price.

And beat starting price when it is adjusted down for a true market IE the prices make up a 100% chance when all possible outcomes are added up.

Starting price, especially these days with the betting exchange markets is an easy and reasonably reliable indicator of the true price/chance for any runner.

And the easiest and most efficient way to do that these days is to beat Betfair SP.

Betfair SP makes up to 100% and the prices are fair to both backers and layers.

If you can beat the Betfair SP consistently then you will make a profit.

There are tipping services that base their whole selection criteria around betting on horses that are showing signs that they will shorten in price from the morning bookie price to the starting price.

Although that is a winning strategy in itself, a better strategy is to study form and make your own selections, determine your own prices and bet where the early prices are bigger than your assessment.

That can be hard work though and you may want somebody to tell you what to bet to beat the market and if you want to be a winner without the work I would recommend Rory Delargy of the http://racingconsultants.co.uk

Rory regularly beats Betfair starting price and consequently he makes steady and consistent profits.

he also gives a full analysis of every bet he gives so you know exactly why they have made each bet. These write ups invariably include other profitable info and bets that are below Rory's minimum price

http://racingconsultants.co.uk

Updated 27 Jan 2020

Football Correct Score Trading

I've just read a cracking article in the Betting Insiders report that outlines a strategy for trading correct score football markets.

I'm sure that this will be a handy strategy to have in your betting armoury.

Basically the method outlined by Jakub Gawel involves backing high scores in games where one team is very short odds on to win.

And then as the game progresses trade out of the position as the scores shorten.

Jakub gives a couple of examples and the general scenario is that one team is starting at odds of 1.2 or less in the win market and has a history of  high scoring games.

Jakub then bet scores of 4-0 and 4-1 at double figure odds.

Then as the game progresses every time a goal is scored by the hot favourite the odds shorten on the big score lines and a profit can be locked in by laying the score line.

There is scope for this to go wrong but if you do your research this looks like a great strategy.

You will need to keep your wits about you, for example if the underdog scores you need to lay off the 4-1 score straight away because if they get another you will have two losing bets.

By betting a score to nil and a score to one either team can score first and you will still have at least one active bet to trade out of.

If you want to read the full method you can join the Betting Insiders here.

Update 2020: This is still a valid strategy, but from experience I would say that the safer strategy is to lay the smaller score lines, either 3-0 and 3-1 or 2-0 and 2,1.

The profit will be smaller from these more likely correct scores but you will be making a profit more often.

As with any football betting, especially in the correct score markets you need to do your research and when trading you need to be on the ball and ready to update your position after each goal.

Understanding Greyhound Racing Form

Understanding Greyhound Racing Form

I've been promising for a while now that I will teach some winning greyhound strategies so today I'm going to explain how the form is recorded for the dogs. I'll then go on to share a strategy that I have used for years whenever I bet the dogs.

This is going to run over a number of days and I might spread it out a bit so as to not bore those readers not interested in the dogs, but we'll see how it goes.

So below you will see a screenshot of some greyhound racing form and below that a list of what the various items mean.

Greyhound racing form

Greyhound racing form – Click to Enlarge

[1] Starting with the easy, this is the trap that the dog will run from

[2] The dogs name & (W) indicates that this dog is a wide runner and consequently it will be allocated one of the outside traps each time it runs. You may also see (M) which indicates a middle runner and this dog will be allocated a middle trap.

[3] The best recent (Calculated) time that the greyhound has achieved along with details of the grade and the date. In this case the best time came in a trial, a trial is a qualifying race which helps the racing manager to know how to grade the dog IE what is it's ability what race should he put it in. Trials will usually have less than 6 runners, 3 in this case, and there is no betting on trials.

[4] The name of the trainer.

[5] This is the Racing Post rating for the dog. It is time based and personally I don’t pay much attention to it.

[6] A description of the animal in this case a F b which is a fawn bitch (female) a male will be indicated with a d for dog. This is followed by the name of the dogs sire (father), dam (mother) and the date whelped (Date of Birth).

[7] Date last in season. Bitches only!

[8] This is the Racing Post's tipsters comment, often vague and and can sway your judgement.

Now we get to the past form for the dog in question. Each line represents one race with the top line being the most recent.

[9] The date of the race.

[10] The track where the race was run.

[11] The distance of the race in metres.

[12] The trap number that the dog ran from on that occasion.

[13] The sectional or split time. This is the time from the traps to the winning line the first time the dog passes the line. This is useful to hep you understand the pace of the dog and whether it is likely to lead early.

[14] Position in race at the start (IE out of the traps), quarter (In a 4 bend race this will be between the 1st & 2nd bends), half and three quarter stages.

[15] Finishing position.

[16] The distance beaten by or if the winner the distance won by.

[17] The name of the winner or the second if this dog was the winner.

[18] The Racing Manager's in running comments for that run

[19] The time that the winner took to complete the race.

[20] The allowance made for the going. N = normal otherwise plus or minus in hundredths of a second EG – 40 means that the time was adjusted down by 40 hundredths of a second.

[21] The starting price of the dog.

[22] The grade of the race.

[23] The calculated time for this dog. This will be calculated from the distance the dog finished behind the winner and adjusted for the going allowance.

Now that we understand the information (form) that we have available next time we can look at how we can use that information.

Now we know how to read the card check out these posts that deal with finding a winner.

Who is the fastest to the first bend

Greyhound racing videos 

Baulking

Is it fast enough

Image courtesy of Saris0000 under Creative Commons 2.0

Greyhounds – Is it fast enough

Once we have found a dog that looks like it will have a favourable position, ideally in front, at the first bend and will not get any trouble on the way to the bend then all you need to know now is whether it is fast enough to hold onto its lead.

It is very common to find a dog that will get a clear run around and will lead most of the way in a race only to lose in the closing stages.

These sprint type dogs just don’t have the stamina to hold on to the winning line and are a trap for anybody using the kind of strategy that we have discussed here.

The key clue to whether we are dealing with this kind of dog is its past race positions. If it has led previously all the way but still not won then you need to find a reason why it might hang on today. EG If in a previous race the positions are shown as 2111 but the dog didn’t win the race then this is a danger signal.

Maybe it is an easier race today maybe a lower grade. Maybe it is fitter today, if the last run came after rest or it is a puppy who is improving. If you can’t find a reason then maybe you should give this one a miss.

Because graded races are in theory constructed such that any dog could win, other than the types mentioned above, I tend to not pay too much attention to the previous times recorded by each dog. As long as my selection is not way slower than the opposition then I am likely to go with it.

The exceptions to this are where I can see a reason why one of the opposition might improve. These include…

Puppies. Young dogs that are just starting out on their careers which can improve in leaps and bounds.

Rested dogs. Dogs that have been off for a rest and are not yet running to their pre rest form. EG If they were running A4 grade before their rest but are now reappearing in an A6 then it is likely that at sometime soon they will return to the previous grade IE they are better than their opposition.

Bitches that have been in season. Bitches don’t run when they are in season. When they return they tend to find significant improvement at around 16 weeks after their season commenced. This tendency is significant enough to be a profitable strategy in itself.

One final point to keep in mind is that you don’t have to bet just one selection in a race. If you have narrowed a race down to two or three contenders then consider splitting your stakes between them.

Splitting stakes across multiple selections is a strategy I use a lot in greyhound racing. You can either bet the same stake on each dog or adjust your stake so you make the same profit whichever of your selections wins.

You can use our dutching tool that will help you determine the correct stakes for dutching selections.

And that is the method that I use to find winning greyhound selections. As with any betting method you are looking for a dog with a strong chance of winning and one that has a better chance than the available odds suggest. There is no clear cut selection ever, because if a dog is an obvious winner then the odds will reflect that.

But that said I have frequently found selections that I am sure will win, barring accidents, at 4/1 and 5/1.

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close