Tag Archives: watch

Drifters – Good or Bad

Today's pearl of wisdom has been inspired by a bet on the Racing Consultants (http://racingconsultants.co.uk) tipping service last week.

This bet has been the talk of the office because we got so many emails and opinions in about it.

Basically last Thursday David Massey posted up four bets

Today

7.15 Kempton – 1pt win Taaresh (8-1 Bet Victor, Paddy Power, W Hill and others)

7.45 Kempton – 1pt e/w Tevez (9-1 Skybet, Stan James, Coral)

2.15 Wincanton – 1.5pts win Silver Commander (at 6.6 and above Betfair)

2.15 Wincanton – 2pts lay Silver Commander at 2.76 in running.

4.5pts staked

The one that caused the fuss was Taaresh, this is what David wrote as his reasons for making the selection.

An angle we like to use on a regular basis is a horse that's improved or refound it's form over jumps that then reverts to the Flat with a mark that looks on the low side, and Kevin Morgan's evergreen TAARESH fits that bill nicely here. Winner of a competitive 0-120 at Worcester that's worked out quite well, he followed that up with a win off 7lb higher and in better class at Wincanton, a sign that he's clearly in good heart at the moment. Upped in class again for his latest start at Musselburgh, he was far from disgraced in finishing fifth, just getting outpaced in the last quarter of a mile. Back on the Flat and in a low grade handicap, he looks well treated off just 70 here and as a C&D winner for Joe Fanning in the past, has no issue with the conditions either. A slight worry we have is the lack of pace in the race, but that is only a minor one, as he does travel well in his races and isn't short of pace should it turn into a burn up in the straight.

You'll note that the price available at the time the bet was posted was 8/1.

By race time he opened up at 16/1 and drifted out to 25/1!

So the question is, if you hadn't already had your bet placed and a top service tipped you a horse at 8/1 that was now 16/1 and drifting to 20's then 25's would you have bet it?

And would you still have your full stake on it?

Or would you assume that it had no chance because of the price and not bet only to watch it win.

So many people will not bet a horse that drifts because they see it as a negative sign.

Gamblers who make money from their betting would see it as a good sign that they are getting extra value!

My advice is if there is sound reasoning as to why a horse should be a selection then your only concern with the price is that you get the best price that you can.

As I've used Racing Consultants as an example I should mention that the service has now been live for 6 month and every month has been a profitable month with a total profit of £1784.50 to £10 stakes. Which is pretty good for a service that costs just £30 per month. http://racingconsultants.co.uk

Today's Selection

4.10 Kempton Zman Awal – win bet 2/1 Paddy Power

Improve Your Betting

I'm away today, but I've hooked you up with a replay of a very interesting webinar that took place on Saturday.

If you want to use ratings as part of your betting strategy and you want to have the ability to automate your betting of rated horses then this replay will be of interest.

Free Webinar

 

Click Here to register and watch now

Trainers To Follow

Hopefully a few of you were on Bronze Angel (14/1) in the Cambridgeshire last weekend after our trends article picked him out along with Velox (2nd) and Big Johnny D (7th) who returned a massive 50/1 for William Hill customers who got 7 places. 

This week we turn our attention to the jumps and highlight three trainers who are literally on fire right now with their National Hunt horses:

It’s always useful to take note of which trainers have their string in top order at the start of the National Hunt season and I have picked out three who have an exceptional strike rate in the last 30 days.  

Trainers To Follow

Charlie Longsdon (last 30 days)

Runs = 11
Wins = 7
Strike rate = 64%
Profit at SP = 13.75

Mrs Dianne Sayer (last 30 days)

Runs = 15
Wins = 7
Strike rate = 47%
Profit at SP = 20.50

Kim Bailey (last 30 days)

Runs = 11
Wins = 7
Strike rate = 64%
Profit at SP = 10.04

At the time of writing they have the following entries on Friday and Saturday:

Friday

Fontwell 3.15pm – Pure Style

Fontwell 5.00pm – Little Chip

Fontwell 5.30pm – Glowinginthedark

Hexham 4.05pm – Bell Weir

Hexham 4.40pm – Sergeant Pink

Hexham 5.10pm – Patsys Castle

Hexham 5.40pm – West End

Saturday

Fontwell 2.50pm – Viking Ridge

Fontwell 3.20pm – Pure Style

Fontwell 3.55pm – Up For An Oscar

The Totepool Challenge Cup from Ascot is the big handicap of the weekend and William Haggas’ Prince’s Trust is a worthy favourite.  He looks well ahead of his handicap mark but the value in his price has long since evaporated. 

American Hope is vying for favouritism and has good Ascot form.  I would give him every chance, but again there is not much juice in his price. 

At the prices, the one I like is Bunbury Cup winner Heaven’s Guest. He is very consistent, goes well in big fields and has course form to boot. 

He won this race off a mark of 100 last year and is now rated 105.  George Chaloner takes off a useful 3lbs so Heaven’s Guest is effectively just 2lb higher than when successful in this in 2013. 

At 12/1 he would be my idea of an each-way bet if you fancy taking on the favourites.

Saturday Ascot 3.50pm – Heavens Guest @12/1 each-way

This year’s renewal of the Arc looks very competitive and you can probably make a decent case for most of the field. 

It certainly looks like a race to watch rather than bet on. 

However, given the global appeal of the race, it is nice to have an interest even if it makes little appeal as serious betting proposition. 

One thing to bear in mind is the importance of the draw.  Essentially you do not want to be too wide coming around a sweeping bend that seems to last forever, before the horses straighten up for home. 

With that in mind I’ll keep it simple and side with a couple of 3yo fillies, the exact types who have done so well in this race in recent years.  

I also want to be in the low half of the draw so I will have to wait and see on that score. 

If the draw is kind I’ll be having a couple of quid each-way on Japan’s Harp Star and France’s Avenir Certain, even if it’s just to add a little spice to the enjoyment of watching Europe’s most prestigious flat race of the year.

Sunday Longchamp 3.30pm – Harp Star @8/1 and Avenir Certain @9/1

Nick Hardman

Betting Insiders

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close