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# Kautoyoustar

Posted on January 27, 2020 by Dave French • 0 Comments

Betfair are running a competition to win a framed photo print stamped by Kauto Star or a Betfair scarf stamped.

All you have to do is to follow Betfair on twitter @BetfairRacing and tweet with the hashtag #kautoyoustar saying what make Kauto a star to you. Full details here

Hennessy Gold Cup

It's Hennessy Gold Cup day tomorrow and there is a lot of opinion as to the likely victor, as you might imagine.

Lets start with one time favourite Great Endeavour.

Nick Mordin has a very interesting piece highlighting the shortcomings of the UK method of assessing the ground conditions on track.

As his example he assesses the runaway success of Great Endeavour in the Paddy Power Gold Cup…

I think it was misleading for most bookies to mark Great Endeavour up as favourite for the Hennessy following this run. You only have to look at the horse's record to agree with trainer David Pipe's assessment that the 3m 2f of that race ‘might be a bit far'.

I have to agree with this assessment and see no value in following GE.

So let's assess the others…

Neptune Collenges – Excluded on age and recent form
Planet of Sound, Wayward Prince, Muirhead, Blazing Bailey – Recent Form
Fair Along, Balthazar King, Tullamore Dew, Billie Magern, Qhilimar – Out of the handicap
Beshabar – Needs further
Carruthers – Prefers small fields and heavy ground
Michel Le Bon – No recent form, hard to assess, possible danger
Sarando, The Giant Bolster – Suspect jumping ability
That leaves Aiteen Thirteethree & Wymott. We prefer Wymott who's last run can be excluded after picking up an injury. Set to carry just 10-2, he will also carry our stake. Good luck

Todays Tip

Newbury 3.50 Colour Squadron (Result 2nd)

Filed Under: Tips
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Hutching Calculator – Hutching Profits

Posted on January 25, 2020 by Dave French • 0 Comments

Following from yesterdays introduction to Dutching, today I want to tell you about Hutching and the Oddschecker Hutching calculator.

The Hutching calculator can be used like the Dutching calculator but instead of taking an equal profit whichever of your selections win. You can instead bias your bet towards a particular outcome.

So you could take all your profit from what you consider to be the most likely outcome and break even on other selected outcomes.

So you are hedging your bet, you have a bet, you expect it to win, but you want to cover some other outcomes so you hedge, hence the hutching calculator.

As an example Chelsea are 1.19 to beat West Ham tonight, so they are expected to win. If we think that West Ham are unlikely to score and Chelsea will win we could frame a bet using the hutching calculator.

If we decide to bet the correct scores of 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 & 4-0 which are priced up at 9.6, 7.2, 8.2, 11.5 respectively.

By adjusting our stakes we can pretty much break even on 1-0, 3-0 & 4-0 and take a profit of £38.60 on 2-0, for a total stake of £10.

If we've judged things correctly then that return compares favourably with the £1.90 profit from a straight win bet.

The image below shows the calculator and the stakes required.

The trouble with this hutching calculator is that you have to manually play around with the stakes to get your desired result.

And if all your bets were in the same market, then it's probably just as easy to do this directly into Betfair. But in this case our bets are spread across 2 markets.

Nevertheless this is a a useful way to frame bets to get better value and to bias bets towards what you consider to be the most likely outcomes.

Don't follow the crowd and just bet what is offered to you, hutch your way to profit.

Filed Under: Money
... ..., action, ads, age, aligncenter, Art, Aw, beat, bet, Betfair, bets, better value, betting, bias, bias bets, BSP, case, CHELSEA, chin, Class, Dutch, Dutching calculator, equal profit, example, example let, fav, Favour, Fit, Fr, heck, introduction, IRE, Kempton, Kempton AW, King, likely outcome, likely outcomes, look, Low, mag, man, manual, mark, market, markets, night, odds, Oddschecker Hutching calculator, outcome, particular outcome, play, price, prices, profit, Punt, result, return, selection, selections, similar bet, size, SP, SR, stake, stakes, straight win bet, thing, things, title, tool, tools, total stake, Tp, trouble, turn, useful way, value, war, way, West, West Ham, WH, width=, win, Win bet, yesterdays, yesterdays introduction, yesterdays Man, |Winners |Strike Rate, £10

SP Before the Off

Posted on January 8, 2020 by Dave French • 0 Comments

Today we have the first post from new contributor Malcolm Pett.

Malcolm explains how we can know the Betfair SP and bet based on Betfair SP before the off!

Here's Malcolm…

Just about every system you come across on the web would first have been created using past data.

If this is the case then the result will be shown using either SP (Industry Standard starting price) or BSP (Betfair Starting Price) for results.

There is nothing really wrong with this because it is the only way of giving people the chance to check the results they are seeing as being accurate.

But where it does cause an issue and pose a problem is when it is a price sensitive system or a system that relies on being on a particular ranked runner, like the favourite.

BSP and SP are calculated at the off.

You may think by looking at the ranking a few seconds before the off will tell you who was favourite, second favourited etc…

But often this isn't the case. The BSP/SP announced ranking can be different to the just before the off rank.

A short test we did with Betfair some time back clearly showed that the rankings can differ by as much as 1 or 2 runners in every 10.

Maybe this doesn’t sound too bad…

…But when you consider you could be following hundreds or even thousands of bets over the course of a year…this could easily change the results you were expecting or the results being advertised.

The same is true of price. The price before the off is often different to BSP/SP causing even more inaccuracies in your system.

So what can you do to make sure you are on the correct runner or within the correct price range?

You may already know that just as Betfair's market goes in-play the BSP price and ranking is made available through their API.

So we have developed a great feature on the Grey Horse Bot that allows the bot to read the BSP price and Ranking as soon as it happens.

This gives the Grey Horse Bot user the opportunity to choose which ranked runner to bet on or to only place a bet into the market if it is within the price range you require.

When you create your own system it should be part of your testing to determine if you get better prices before the off or in-play. You can test both automatically with the Grey Horse Bot.

Thank you for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm

——

Malcolm is the creator of a number of Betfair automated betting products like the Grey Horse Bot. He also writes articles for Betfair. Apart from automation Malcolm likes creating and testing systems and believes his readers should have all the statistical facts available to make proper informed decisions.

If you have any questions about bots or automation please add a comment and we'll try and answer them.

Filed Under: Tech
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Please Mr Santa

Posted on December 23, 2019 by Dave French • 0 Comments

If you don’t want socks or underwear for Christmas then you need to get your requests in for for stuff that you would really like.

With that in mind we have some of the lesser known betting books that will help pass away a few quiet afternoons during the holiday period.

Born to Punt is a collection of amusing events that have befell sports writer Steve Palmer.
If you want to feel a bit better about your own misfortunes at the hands of the bookies.

One reviewer summed this book up thus “Absolutely hilarious from the start! For anyone that is regularly involved in financial combat with the bookmakers, or simply intrigued into what makes thousands of people regularly frit away their finances on a variety of sports, Steve’s account is frightfully recognisable. Chasing the dream! The lazy boy lifestyle led with his accomplice through various fast-food establishments adds the required light humour! ”

Our second choice is the more serious, although not too heavy for the non mathematician, Taking Chances.

John Haigh is the author of a number of books on probability and manages to make the mathematics of betting and winning just about understandable by the man on the street.

And although this is not the latest book on the subject it is one of the more readable and is recommended for that reason

Sporting Chancer is a wonderful read that will keep you occupied and amused during the dull sober moments of the traditional christmas.

The book follows Ed Hawkins as he tries to punt himself around the world. Not in a flat bottomed boat with a big stick but by betting to fund his travels.

As well as losing in one of the biggest casinos in the world, he bets on cock fighting, plays bingo and challenges Phil ‘The Power’ Taylor to a game of darts.

Any round up of betting books would not be complete without a couple of the all time classics and here I include the books that I read as I started my own betting career.

Any of Nick Mordin’s books are worth a read as is his website where he regularly looks at racing in alternative ways.

But this is the one that I remember most fondly. Nick explains his methods and the index cards of data that he would carry to the days racing to help him identify the bets he would make.

It wraps up with an account of his own profits and losses betting around the racecourses of England.

As far as I’m aware Value Betting by Mark Coton was the first book to explain the concept of value betting. And although it was pre mainstream internet and Betfair the message is still valid today.

I’m going to finish off with Alan Potts’ Against the Crowd. Alan Potts was a pro gambler turned pundit for a while and this one has had a place on my bookshelf since the mid 90’s.

As the title suggest Alan, like Mark before him, was a value seeker. And like Nick he includes a diary of his bets over the preceding season

Todays Tip

Hexham 2.50 Ockey De Neulliac Each Way

Filed Under: Money
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# Kautoyoustar

Hutching Calculator – Hutching Profits

SP Before the Off

Please Mr Santa