Morning all,

Since the start of the year my Thursday column has been about the upcoming Cheltenham Festival. With that now out of the way for another year there’s a bit of hole to fill. Well from now until October I will be using the Thursday’s column to delve into the world of stats & trends. I know stats/trends are like marmite and you either love or hate them. For those who in the former camp hopefully I will be producing something to interest you.

Inside today’s main piece I continue my look ahead to the start of the 2022 flat season with some Doncaster Lincoln meeting trainer stats. Plus, there’s a Thursday tip from…

Before all that I final look back at some Cheltenham Festival stats.

Cheltenham Festival stats

Our old friend the Favourite-Longshot Bias bounced back with a vengeance last week. It turned out to be a profitable four days for punters who play at the front of the market and not so good for the layers.

Horses returned 3/1 & under won 80% of non-handicap races at 2022 festival. Producing 16 winners from 30 runners 53% +16.53 20 placed 67%. In the process performing 47% better than market expectations.

Meanwhile those returned 14/1 & bigger (non-handicap races) produced just 2 winners from 124 runners 2% -86 15 placed 12% and performed 42% worse than market expectations.

As punters we must be ready to adapt to changing circumstances and it looks like the this is a trend that will continue at future festivals. Its just case of finding the ones at the front end of the betting that are worth supporting.

A ray of sunshine for layers

There was continuing ray of sunshine for layers (non-handicap races) who oppose beaten favourites on their last start prior to coming Cheltenham.

This year beaten favourites last time out produced 1 winner from 23 qualifiers the sole winner being A Plus Tard in the Gold Cup.

Since 2008 the layers have made a sizeable profit and seen only two losing festivals in 2009 & 2018.  Looking at the last four festivals just four last time out beaten favourites from 112 qualifiers were successful at the festival. If you had backed them all to a £1 level stake you would have lost £88.

Now I know laying isn’t everyone’s ‘cup of tea’ but laying last time out beaten favourites in festival non-handicaps is something that I will be looking at seriously next year.

Doncaster Lincoln Meeting stats

National Hunt fans still have plenty of big races to look forward to over jumps in the next five weeks. A week on Saturday, it’s the Scottish Grand National and a week later the Grand National. Meanwhile across the Irish Sea we have the Irish Grand National on Easter Monday and of course the little matter of the Punchestown Festival.

Maybe it’s because the warm sun is shining through my office window but I’m starting to look forward to the start of the new flat season. Which leads me on to some stats for Doncaster’s flat curtain raiser.

Odds:

Since 2017 84% of races at the Lincoln meeting were won by horses in the first five in the betting.

For those looking for way into the first meeting of the new flat season. You could probably do worse than look at trainers who have shown they can have their horses ready to roll at the fixture.

Trainers

Concentrating on those sent off in the first five in the betting. Who are the trainers who could be worth following at Doncaster this weekend?

Looking at the results at the meeting since 2017. It could be worth focusing on runners from the following ten yards if  they are in the first five in the betting.

Richard Fahey – 6 winners from 33 runners 18% +11.75 12 placed 36%

Richard Hannon – 5 winners from 12 runners 42% +27.25 8 placed 67%

Roger Varian – 3 winners from 8 runners 38% -0.47 5 placed 63%

Andrew Balding – 2 winners from 8 runners 25% -1.5 3 placed 38%

Ian Williams – 2 winners from 2 runners 100% +12.5

James Tate – 2 winners from 2 runners 100% +9.5

Declan Carroll – 2 winners from 7 runners 29% +5

Eve Johnson Houghton – 1 winner from 1 runner 100% +8

Edward Bethell – 1 winner from 1 runner 100% +8

Archie Watson – 1 winner from 1 runner 100% +0.8.

Thursday Racing

It’s all jumps action today with fixtures at Chepstow, Huntingdon, Sedgefield, and Cork. Today’s selection runs at Chepstow.

Chepstow

3:31 – Just Your Type isn’t the best of jumpers and doesn’t win very often. However, he’s now 8lb below his last winning mark and this does represent a drop-in class after his 9^th of 16 in the Eider Chase last month. Today’s better ground will suit the 10-year-old as should a smaller field. Lilly Pinchin also takes off a useful 5lb.

Dancing Shadow might be a 13-year-old but he showed that he could still be competitive in this sort of handicap chases in the autumn. Best effort this season when 1 ½ length 2nd of 7 at Sandown in November, He now races off 5lb lower. Ran no sort of race when pulled up in the veterans chase final last time. Back from a break here with his yard’s runners going well. He will be fine on the going and given his normal good jumping she be in the mix.

Selection: Dancing Shadow

Good luck with your Thursday bets.

John