Evening all,

I love a good cliché. Here's today's. “The winter jumps season is clicking into gear”.

The racing wasn’t of the very highest quality. Indeed, for me the best chases didn’t take place at Cheltenham on Saturday. Kelso staged a competitive handicap on its Saturday card and arguably the race of the weekend was Aintree’s Old Roan Chase on the Sunday. More on both races and Cheltenham’s Showcase meeting in Tuesday’s column.

Inside today’s main piece you’ll read my thoughts on the big juvenile performance at Doncaster and Newbury on Saturday. Plus, there’s a Monday selection from Ayr at the end of the main piece.

Vertem Futurity; Another for Aidan

Is it really 12 months since I was writing about Aidan O’Brien 10^th win and joining the late Sir Henry Cecil as the winning most trainers of the Vertem Futurity.  Well, here I’m a year on and Aidan just gained his 11^th success in the race

The Vertem Futurity is a race with fantastic roll honour, and now we can add Auguste Rodin’s name to an illustrious group of winners.  The testing ground meant the eventual winners participation was in doubt until after the first race. Concerns over underfoot conditions meant punters were looking to get the colt beat and he was returned at a surprisingly backable 9/4.

The field of 8 runners split into two groups with the O’Brien pair of Auguste Rodin & Salt Lake City along with Epictetus came stands side while the rest lead by Stormbuster went far side. It proved a smart move to go stands side as the best of the ground was on that side of the track. It was Salt Lake City who took them along stands side. He was headed to 2f out by his stablemate. Meanwhile the strong travelling Holloway Boy, racing in the first time visor, cruised to the front and his jockey kicked for home. However, he wandered across the whole track to join the winner who forged clear inside the final furlong to win by 3 ½ with Epictetus staying on take second from the errant Holloway Boy.

What next?

It was a gritty success by Auguste Rodin who had to dig deep to complete the hat trick.  He’s now the joint 5/1 favourite for the 2,000 Guineas with stablemate Little Big Bear and 4/1 for the Derby.  Given on breeding and running style he looks a middle distance colt. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go for next season’s 2,000 Guineas like last year’s winner Luxembourg did.

The first three home can win Group races next season if they train on. However, the winner will turn out to be the best of them. He’s still learning and remains a colt with potential for plenty of improvement as a 3-year-old.  Yes. I was impressed with him, and I think we saw something special on Saturday.

Holloway Boy looks a bit of a character but the way he travelled into the race shows he’s got plenty of ability.  If only his jockey had gone stands side with him. I don’t think he would have won but he would have finished runner-up.

Knight powers to Horris Hill success

We saw another potential star emerge at Newbury on Saturday. Knight, trained by Simon & Ed Crisford, backed up his Yarmouth racecourse debut success with an even better performance to win the Group 3 Horris Hill Stakes.

York nursery winner Grey’s Monument took the field along. He was only headed by Knight 1f out who then powered through the mud for a taking success. The long-time leader did well to rally inside the final furlong, but he was not match for the winner.

Both the favourite Striking Star and well backed second favourite Lord Of Biscay didn’t handle the heavy ground. It’s probably wise to be slightly sceptical about the form although the winner is a very useful colt and should do well as a 3-year-old.  He’s likely to be aimed at the first colts classic. However, you must go back to Tirol in 1989 for the last horse to do the Horris Hill/Guineas double.  The winner has a bit of knee action so I don’t think he would want the ground to quick.

Monday Racing

I’m going to be specialising on Class 4 races and above this winter. It’s my own way of specialising and it also cuts down the workload.  When time allows, I will also endeavour to give you an insight into my thought process when it comes to analysing a race.

There are 30 races on Monday but looking at horseracebase I can quickly see there are just seven qualifying races today.

Of those seven I’m passing over the two non-handicaps and the conditional jockeys race at Ayr.  

The standout race of the day is the 11 runner Class 3 handicap at Redcar (3:40). The other class 3 contest the Novices Limited Handicap Chase at Ayr (3:15) has attracted just 4 runners.

Considering the going at Ayr is good to soft, soft in places with more rain forecast. Where are all the horses who have been waiting for the ground to ease? It’s an interesting enough race though with all four runners making their chase debut.

Ayr

3:15 – Corrieben Reiver was arguably the second best of these over hurdles, and his very best form came on soft/heavy ground.  However, we haven’t seen him for 534-days.

Three questions spring to mind. Why has he been off for so long?  Does he retain most of his old ability? And how fit is he. I can’t answer the first two questions.

On the fitness question. Looking at the Racing Post we can see that he did win here over hurdles in 2019 off a 233-day absence and off a 480-day absence in February of last year. Given he’s not been the easiest to keep sound. Maybe fresh is the best time to catch the 8-year-old.

The best of the four over hurdles was Nells Son. He won a Grade 2 novice at Kelso in March and should make up into a better chaser. Course, distance and going are all fine the 7-year-old looks a worthy market leader for an inform yard.  

Since Day One represent the very much inform Donald McCain yard. The 6-year-old won four of his six starts over hurdles last season and like the favourite it should make up into a chaser.

Peaceful Sunday is the final runner. The Irish challenger won a Fairyhouse maiden hurdle (soft) in February. Another who’s got the size to do better over the larger obstacles. He’s the hardest to get a handle on but looks capable of winning races if jumping better than he did over hurdles. 

Verdict:

There may only be four runners but it’s an intriguing race. Nells Son should be the favourite on hurdles form and is the one to beat. However, I’m drawn to the claims of Corrieben Reiver. The pre-race betting should reveal more about the horses chance but fresh maybe the time to catch him.

Looking at the weather forecast plenty of rain was being forecast for Redcar on Sunday. When I looked on Sunday morning the going was being given as soft, good to soft in places. There won’t be any good in the going description if the rain has arrived. In fact, it’s likely to be close to heavy come the start of racing.  

Redcar

3:40 – Awaal seems set to go off a short-priced favourite and you can see why the bookies won’t swerve him. The 3-year-old makes his handicap debut of what looks a very workable mark of 93. We haven’t seen the colt since he finished a ¾ length 2^nd of 6 to Phantom Flight (now rated 108) in May. Prior to that he had beaten subsequent Royal Ascot Britannia winner Thesis on the all-weather at Lingfield. It will be a severe test for an inexperienced horse but he’s capable of better for a yard who are 5-12 42% +14.03 in the past 14-days.

Pisanello & Spirit Catcher finished second and third in the Straight-Mile Series Final Handicap over C&D 23-days ago. You can’t fault the former’s consistency since he made a winning seasonal reappearance at Beverley in April. He deserves to win another race and the 5-year-old did win twice on heavy ground when trained in France. Spirit Catcher attempted to make all last time and kept on well to finish ½ length behind Pisanello. He’s had less chances than his old rival and although he’s yet to race on ground worse than good to soft his pedigree suggests he will handle it.

Koy Koy running in the first-time hood ran better than his 2 ¼ length 7th of 14 at Ayr last month suggests. He was slowly away that day and was ideally positioned in a race where it paid to be handy. Yard having a very good run 17 winners from 53 runners 32% in the past two weeks. This is drop in class for the 3-year-old but I’m not sure he’ll appreciate very testing ground.

Monday Selection:

I thought Dingo Dollar had no chance three out in the veterans chase he was 8^th and 15 lengths or more behind long-time leader Wishing And Hoping. However, we do know that he stays very well, and he made relentless progress to overhaul the leader at the last before pulling away. I had him a 7/1 chance on my tissue although I wasn’t sure how fit he was on his seasonal reappearance. Clearly trainer Sandy Thomson had him fit enough.  

As I expected the money came in for If The Cap Fits on his stable debut. He was sent off a crazy price at 2/1. Even at 6/1 I wasn’t ready to recommend a bet on him, Yes, he was well handicapped, but he hadn’t looked a natural chaser for his previous yard and he fell at the 14th and was fatally injured.

After a few poor efforts from my selections, it was nice to get a winner and even better when it’s at 12/1

All that’s left is to provide a selection for today. Pisanello wouldn’t be winning out of turn and a return to testing ground could prove ideal for him. I’m sweet on the potential of Awaal on handicap debutdespite his long absence. On pedigree he shouldn’t have any issues with soft ground. Mind you I would be looking for minimum odds of 7/2.

I have been waiting to see Nells Son go over fences and if he jumps, he will probably win on chase debut at Ayr. He’s likely to be plenty short enough in the betting though.  From a price perspective I’m happy to take a chance with the long absent Corrieben Reiver.

Ayr

3:15 – Corrieben Reiver -– 5/1 @ Bet365.

Good luck with your Monday bets.

John