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Well Handicapped Runners

I'm still spending time reading my Betting Insiders back issues and I'm still looking for an angle to profit from flat handicaps.

With that in mind I was interested to read an article by Mark Foley about trainers who appear to run their horses over the wrong distance to get them well handicapped.

The trainer that was the main feature of the article is Luca Cumani.

The basic idea that Mark investigated was the performance of Cumani charges on their fourth starts when they are upped in distance.

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And more specifically when they run over 8 furlongs or further this time.

The logic of this is that a horse that has 3 poor runs will have their official rating lowered to represent those performances. Then when it runs at a more appropriate distance it will be well handicapped.

This is the kind of angle where it's hard to get a large volume of qualifying races but over the last 10 year there are 146 races to look at.

Here are the stats using the Horse Race Base Distance Move factor.

On Course Profits free Horse Racing magazine

Runners = 146
Winners = 37
Strike Rate = 25.34%
SP Profit = 48.55
SP ROI = 33.25%

If you like to research winning methods I think there is profit to be found from researching other trainers that use a similar approach.

Feel free to share your findings in the comments, below.

Today's Selection courtesy of No Risk Tipster

7:45 Bangor Peachey Moment – win bet – 9/4 Boylesport

4 thoughts on “Well Handicapped Runners”

    1. Cumani is a master at it their is one running tonight from d evans stable came 2nd over 2miles off a mark of 73 and 77 been running over 1mile 5furlongs and 1mile 6furlongs laterly back to 2miles tonight off a mark of 65 tonight and 14-1

      1. Cheers Dave, I had a little eachway, even though there were only 2 places it looked like a seconditis type to me and worth a little punt at 20/1 🙂

  1. Hi Keef

    SMP is the most famous for doing this, but because everybody knows he does it there’s no profit in following his selections 🙁


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