I'm still spending time reading my Betting Insiders back issues and I'm still looking for an angle to profit from flat handicaps.
With that in mind I was interested to read an article by Mark Foley about trainers who appear to run their horses over the wrong distance to get them well handicapped.
The trainer that was the main feature of the article is Luca Cumani.
The basic idea that Mark investigated was the performance of Cumani charges on their fourth starts when they are upped in distance.
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And more specifically when they run over 8 furlongs or further this time.
The logic of this is that a horse that has 3 poor runs will have their official rating lowered to represent those performances. Then when it runs at a more appropriate distance it will be well handicapped.
This is the kind of angle where it's hard to get a large volume of qualifying races but over the last 10 year there are 146 races to look at.
Here are the stats using the Horse Race Base Distance Move factor.
Runners = 146
Winners = 37
Strike Rate = 25.34%
SP Profit = 48.55
SP ROI = 33.25%
If you like to research winning methods I think there is profit to be found from researching other trainers that use a similar approach.
Feel free to share your findings in the comments, below.
Today's Selection courtesy of No Risk Tipster
7:45 Bangor Peachey Moment – win bet – 9/4 Boylesport