Good morning all,
It’s Spring! I know it doesn’t feel like it. This wet and windy winter just doesn’t want to end.
We are just eight days from the most famous roar in sport – the ‘Cheltenham roar’ – that signals the start of another Cheltenham Festival.
In this week’s article I’m going to look at Saturday's Imperial Cup and two races from day one of the festival from a trend’s perspective.
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You can find all the trends along with a Wetherby tip inside.
Anyway, have great week and enjoy the read.
Rivals Trail Gino
As ever let’s begin with a look back at last weekend’s action. In truth there isn’t much to report. Newbury’s Saturday card was abandoned, due to waterlogging, leaving just Doncaster and Kelso to fly the flag for National Hunt racing.
The going was heavy at Doncaster and horses and jockeys also faced a strong head wind in the straight. Given those circumstances you have to take your hat off to Gino Trail and Captain Chaos.
Gino Trail might be a 13-year-old and on his first start since a switch to the Fergal O’Brien stable but he rolled back the years to win the 2m ½ handicap chase. Given a bold front running ride by jockey Paddy Brennan his rivals never looked like they would catch him.
Captain Chaos who made a bold bid from the front in Warwick’s Classic Chase on his previous start and was given another positive ride. Once in the lead the 9-year-old set out to make the Grimthorpe Handicap Chase a true test of stamina. He fairly ground his rival into Doncaster turf. Pulling clear in the straight to win by 54 lengths. Just three finished the race to show how tough the conditions where. He deserved his win.
But It Makes for Grim Viewing
I can’t say any of the races at Doncaster made for enjoyable viewing. There were plenty of non-runners on the card, very few finishers and seeing exhausted horses jumping the last doesn’t showcase the sport in a good light.
I’m sure all the horses who ran on Saturday will be fine but it will take them a long time to recover.
Maybe it’s just me I don’t think Saturday’s action would have brought anyone new to the sport.
Spectre of Coronavirus Hangs Over Cheltenham
The threat of Coronavirus could have a big impact on sport and horse racing over the coming weeks. Three new cases confirmed in the UK. And the Chief Medical Officer for England Prof Chris Whitty saying the UK will have to consider axing mass gatherings if the “virus intensifies”.
It’s a worrying time with Cheltenham just over a week away, especially as one of the new cases is from Gloucester.
They have cancelled sporting events in Italy to control the spread of the virus. In France indoor gatherings of 5,000 people have been banned. Whilst racing at Chantilly on Tuesday and Compiegne on Monday and Wednesday will now take place behind closed doors. Both Japan and Hong Kong have seen race meetings taking place without any spectators.
If there is a spike in new infections over the coming days then you have to be worried about Cheltenham taking place. Unlike 2001 when the Cheltenham Festival was cancelled due to foot and mouth outbreak. There is another option.
A Festival Behind Closed Doors?
Could this year’s festival take place with any spectators? Ruby Walsh thinks it could happen. And it’s happening in other racing jurisdictions . A Cheltenham Festival would be a surreal experience without 65,000 spectators. More akin to a Tuesday afternoon all weather card at Kempton.
How would you feel about it?
If it meant it could take place then it would be the best option for horsemen, punters and bookmakers alike. I would much prefer the meeting took place behind closed doors rather than say cancel it until say the April meeting which has been mooted as an option. I don’t think that would be a goer at all. If the virus spreads then I doubt there would be any sport taking place in front of the paying public for a few weeks.
Sadly, sporting gatherings would be a long hanging fruit for politicians wanting to be seen to be doing something. And yesterday media outlets were that “The government is also looking at banning public gatherings and football matches, closing schools and encouraging people to avoid public transport”.
Take Sensible Precautions
We can all do our bit to help to stop the spread of this virus by taking a few common sense precautions. Wash your hands, cover your mouth when coughing, use a hankie when sneezing and stay indoors, if you have flu like symptoms.
I think Cheltenham will take place but it's a potentially fast moving situation and going to be a worrying few days, that’s for sure.
Until the virus runs it course the sport of horse racing as we know it, is under threat, and there is nothing we can do about it.
After that pessimistic note. Let’s look forward to some big races and those trends I promised.
Imperial Cup Trends – Sandown
Saturday’s big betting race is the Imperial Cup at Sandown. The results below contain 10 winners from 184 runners 36 placed.
8 winners from 42 runners +74.75 12 placed (+99.69 each way) had the following traits:
Headgear: None
Wins at Distance: 0 to 1
Handicap Hurdle Wins: 1 to 2
Days Since Last Run: 16 to 45-days.
Cheltenham Festival Race Trends:
Looking at the trends for the first two races at the Cheltenham Festival.
Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
The results below contain 10 winners from 157 runners 30 placed.
Age: 5yo to 6yo
Odds SP: 2/1 to 12/1
Last Race: Non-handicap
Last Time Out Placing: 1st
8 winners from 25 runners +32.5 +45.50 16 placed
Arkle Novices’ Chase
The results below contain 10 winners from 88 runners 26 placed
Age: 6yo to 7yo
Position in Odds Market (Last Race): Fav or Second favourite
Runs at Cheltenham: 1 or 2
Last Time Out Placing: 1st
8 winners from 15 runners +39.59 10 placed (+46.53)
I will look at another two races next Monday. However, if you want all my Cheltenham Festival race trends and selections you can join me here.
Monday Racing:
Chepstow has already been abandoned and Wetherby has to pass an early morning inspection. Let’s hope it does because that’s where my Monday tip runs.
Wetherby
4:15 – Flegmatik a winner of a juvenile hurdle over C&D last season. The 5-year-old put in a career best effort when runner-up here on his seasonal reappearance in November. Thrown in the deep end for his handicap hurdle when 13th of 24 in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury.
Lightly raced, just his 6th career start, he remains capable of further progress back in calmer waters here. Effective on soft ground, if heavy doesn't inconvenience he looks set to go close here.
Trainer Dan Skelton is 7 winners from 21 runners 33% +17.66 11 placed 52 with his runners in Class 3 hurdle races at the course.
Flegmatik
Until next week
Hi John.
I agree with your sentiment about Saturday’s racing. Apart from not bringing in new spectators, it adds to the case for detractors.
I sometimes think racing authorities put money before the wellbeing of the horses. You can tell this is the case when they adamantly state that they put horse welfare first and foremost. I suspect they say this with their hands behind their backs, fingers crossed!
Hi RJ,
A spot on comment!
Racing is lucky that the animal rights extremists, just have their eyes on Cheltenham & the Grand National.
Watching exhausted horses clambering over the last and almost walking over the line is not my idea of entertainment.
Hopefully all the horses who ran on Saturday will be fine but it will take then time to recover from their exertions.
John