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Nick Hardman Tips

This week we take a look at today’s Newcastle card and highlight a few trainers with an excellent recent record at the track. We then move on to the big races on Saturday and take our usual trends based look at a couple of the feature races.

We start with Newcastle and the ever consistent Richard Fahey.

Last season he sent 53 runners to the northern track and returned with 11 winners at a strike rate of 21% and a profit of £34.08 to £1 level stakes.

It has been a similar story so far this season and his record currently stands at 3 winners from 15 runners (20% strike rate) for a profit of £16.00.

He sends just two runners to Newcastle today; the unraced Celebration in the 6f maiden and Akeed Champion in the 3yo maiden over 7f at 2.40pm.

Any market confidence in the former would make that one interesting whereas the latter looks to go one better than when filling the runner-up spot last time out.

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Epsom Oaks Preview

Today Carl Nicholson of Value Backing shares his bets for next months Oaks.

Carl has an offer on at his Value Backing service at the moment whereby if you join this week you will get access to a trial of a new system that has been making huge profits from sprint races so far this season.

http://valuebacking.com

Here’s Carl…

Hi everyone, for this weeks article I am going to take a look at the Oaks market as it stands at the moment. I do think this race has more of a settled picture and may be one we can pick a selection or two from.

Looking at the front of the market we have the Guineas winner Legatissimo who out stayed her rivals on the day in that race. But I am not convinced she will benefit from a mile and a half so would not be rushing to back her, as favourite she is very opposable!

Crystal Zvedzda is the media buzz horse after an impressive run at Newbury a week or so ago. But what did she beat ? Not much is the answer and she has plenty to find on form. But as always in these races folk get caught up in the hype and forget about the basic form.

Found will stay the trip and looks ready for the step up to it after running well in the Irish 1000 Guineas . She is bound to be in the frame in my view.

Diamondsandrubies will get the trip, but I am not sure if she has the class. She could well have plenty more improvement and rates an interesting runner.

Together Forever – ran a good race at York, giving weight to the winner. She looks all about stamina and she will reverse the form with her conquerer Start Of Seville off levels and over the Oaks distance.

Jack Naylor does not look good enough and will struggle with the trip.

Of the rest Lady Of Dubai & Al Naamah should both stay the trip and could well make a bold showing. Lady Of Dubai is a typical late maturing type her stable do well with and Al Naamah looks the one who could still have plenty of improvement to come for a step up the the mile and a half, but has she the class ?

In conclusion Found should make the frame and at 7’1 she looks an each way bet to nothing. But at a price I like Lady Of Dubai at 16’1 each way for a stable that knows how to nurture her sort.

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When is the best time to place your bets?

A common question I see a lot is…

“When is the best time to place your bets?”

If you read any of the professional bettor guides you will see they often talk about finding the best value.

How they often watch different bookies on and off course looking to find an extra few ticks here or there.

Often they may even place several bets at different times to maximise profit.

They know that making money from horse racing is about getting as much profit as they can from each winner.

And they treat every selection as if it is going to win.

That’s easy if you are a pro and you have all day to study prices and can even get to the courses where your bet is running.

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Favourites Bias

I’ve been catching up on my reading this weekend and have just read an interesting article by Dave Renham who writes for the Betting School Insiders Club.

I don’t tend to like systems or methods that pick favourites because I figure that the value is in finding horses that the market hasn’t, but nevertheless this article has some food for thought.

What Dave has done is to divide races into thirds based on starting price. The top third of the market, the middle third and the bottom third.

There is a lot of data and pointers in this article but I think the most interesting and useful is the final table of the article which highlights course and distances where there has been a high percentage of winners from the top third of the betting market.Continue Reading

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