Have you noticed that a lot of tipsters have had a rough patch in the last week or so?
Maybe your own selection methods have taken a turn for the worst?
The reason is plain for all to see!
It is the changeable weather. With scorching sun one moment and thunder storms and flooding the next.
The fact is that when the going is softer than Good that the chances of many horses change and so we get surprises in the results.
Here’s a simple example I pulled out of Horse Race Base.
I looked at horses running in UK Flat races on Turf.
And then I chose Stall 1 runners, just so I only looked at one horse per race and I looked at races where the going was Good to Soft or Soft.
I then looked at horses that had one win on the going compared to horses that hadn’t won on the going.
You can see from the table that a Going Win bumps the strike rate up from 12% to 14% and takes the Return on Investment from -13.74 % to a small profit, 0.14%.
Now obviously that system is not going to make us rich, but I bet that at early prices or even Betfair SP it would do a lot better than money in the bank.
What we need when the going gets, er, soft is a more sophisticated system than this.
What I’m using now is a system that can’t be managed through a Database like HRB but which is finding huge winners and that’s the Value Backing Weatherman system.
(Find out more about that here http://www.valuebacking.com/99-of-betting-systems-are-doomed/ )
17:00:00 Lingfield Fort Berkeley – win bet – 5/1 Bet Victor