I read an interesting article recently about why horse racing staking plans don't help when backing horses.
Basically the premise was that if you are backing then you are betting more losers than winners and if you have any type of increasing stakes plan then you will be increasing stakes on losers also and so you will lose more. Or at least your return on investment will go down.
But that got me thinking, because if we are betting odds on shots then we will have more winners than losers, so that means if we increase stakes then we will be staking more on winners than losers. Because there are more of them.
This reminded me of the Odds On Trainer and Odds On Jockey systems we created back in May of this year.
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Both of these systems are in profit, but at Starting Prices it is a very modest profit.
Here are the numbers since we created the system
Odds On Trainers = 3.43 points from 108 bets with a 60.19% strike rate
Odds On Jockeys = 3.35 points from 85 bets with a 63.53% strike rate
To be honest I tend to agree with the article and don't like any form of increasing stakes staking plan, but I think a simple percent of bank plan would go well with these strike rates.
If we revisit my article from earlier in the month about longest losing runs we can calculate that we can expect a longest losing run of about 9 with a 60% strike rate from 100 bets.
So I think a 5% of bank staking plan would work well as it allows for 20 losers in a row.
I applied this plan to the Odds On Trainers system and it made a profit of £7.13 from a £100 bank 🙁 level £5 stakes would have made £17.15.
So I did the same with the Odds On Jockeys system and got similar results, using 5% of the bank made a profit of £10.14, but level £5 stakes produced £16.75.
So what's the point here, I think it's just that beware of anything promising riches from a system or tips that use a particular staking plan.
I'm sure I could come up with a staking plan that would make these selections more profitable, but it would probably only work on that particular sequence.
Feel free to discuss this in the comments and I'll investigate any interesting points raised when I get back from my hols.
I have a system based backing favs daily 1 bet per day on level stakes over 7 months it shows a profit of 61 pts or £610,00 @ £10 stakes, on a 10% staking plan as my S/R is around 80% it shows a profit of £913,45 with a £100 starting bank each month staking 10% of bank daily and withdrawing profit monthly, with a £100 bank staking 10% daily and rolling it for over monthly it would be standing at £27,212.87 profit and stakes would be over £2500 per bet
David
Your system seems incredible. 80% strike rate? The best I ever got was 62%, but only for one month. Are you willing to share your selections?
Regards
Jim
I like your system do you have a limit to the prices you back john
i was given several betting plans one that has always looked good is the following
lets say a 500 bank whioch would give you approx 26 bets.
first bet 10% of bank loser so remains 450 next bet 10% remains 405 and so on until attaining 119 remaining then continue with 12pound bets till end.
But if you have winners just say he first bet of 50 wins at 3/1 bank now 450 plus return 200 =650 next bet 65 and so on.
but you could go on forever if you had plenty of alternating winners but I put in a stop rule once the bank exceeds 700 i will bet till the next loser then start again. Apply this to you example and please advice me of the return you might well be suprised at the return or alternatively send me a respectable list of winners and losers iand i will attempt to work this out for you
My simple system that I got from Steve Jones has worked for me for donkey’s years .
Have a starting bank of say £1000,divide it by 3 = £333 per third.
Use one third (£333) as a reserve fund,divide the remaining two thirds £666) by 50 to reach the value of one point £13.32. this is the amount staked per bet.
Once your betting bank reaches £1,333 withdraw the reserve fund,bring your bank back to £1000.
Once again bet at £13.32,this time leaving your bank to grow to £1,666,then withdraw £666.
Your bank is now back to £1000 but it is now made up of accrued profits.
As your bank is now whole profit,it is up to you how much you withdraw every month,quarter,yearly but whatever your bank is after withdrawal star again using the two thirds,one third strategy.