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Aintree Grand National Festival – Day 1

Hi all,

Inside today’s main piece I’m looking at Day 1 of the Aintree Grand National Festival.

The big dilemma at the start of the Aintree Grand National Festival is what to do about the Nicky Henderson horses. Despite the short odds, I was eager to back Sir Gino in the Grade 1 Boodles Anniversary Juvenile Hurdle. However, given the uncertainty surrounding their performance, I’ve ultimately decided to leave them alone. It's disappointing, but you just don’t know how they will perform and backing at very short odds you need everything in your favour.

Here’s my preview of the five races live you can watch on ITV.

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Aintree Grand National Festival – Day 1

When assessing Day 1 from a betting perspective, it doesn’t appear to offer many solid opportunities but rather more speculative ones.

2:20 – Boodles Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m 1f

The race largely hinges on the wellbeing of favourite Sir Gino, who was forced to miss last month’s Triumph Hurdle. The uncertain form of Nicky Henderson’s horses makes it challenging to predict how he’ll go, but if Sir Gino is in top shape, he stands out as the most likely winner.

Kargese, second in the Triumph Hurdle, gets the 7lb mare allowance, giving her a competitive edge on official ratings. This track should suit her better than Cheltenham, but Sir Gino has potential for further improvement of the pair.

Kalif Du Berlais, unbeaten over hurdles since joining Paul Nicholls, is open to more improvement, but may find fences better suited to his abilities in the long term.

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2:55 – William Hill Bowl Chase (Grade 1) – 3m 1f

Gerri Colombe runner-up to Galopin Des Champs in the Cheltenham Gold Cup is a worthy favourite. And a reproduction of his Gold Cup effort would probably be good enough to win. He’s a good jumper he’s not the quickest to get organised having jumped an obstacle and might have hard race at Cheltenham.

Shishkin, last year's race winner, offers a strong challenge if at his best but he’s quirky and he’s trained by Nicky Henderson.

Corbetts Cross is the most intriguing of the seven runners. The 7-year-old put it altogether to win the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival last month. Interesting that connections opt to run in him in open company rather than go for the Grade 1 Novices Chase on Friday. If his jumping holds up against more experienced rivals he won’t be far away.

Last year’s winner Ahoy Senor and Bravemansgame don’t come into the race in much form and I’m not sure either want the ground this testing. Gentlemansgame was disappointing in the Gold Cup last time but could bounce back here and if he did would have a chance.

3:30 – William Hill Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m 4f

Bob Olinger, runner-up in the Irish Champion Hurdle, heads the betting and is the right favourite.  However, I feel he’s worth taking on. Langer Dan comes into the race after winning the Coral Cup at Cheltenham for the second year running. This former C&D winner looks well worth his place in the line-up and although he has 10lb to find with Bob Olinger on official ratings, I can see him outrunning his odds and going well. I can’t see Beacon Edge winning but I could see him placing.  Might be one to back at big odds in the place only markets.

4:05 – Randox Foxhunters' Open Hunters' Chase (Class 2) – 2m 5f

The first race over the Grand National fences. Its On The Line and Time Leader have to be respected after their recent runs at Cheltenham, with Annamix offering a strong challenge if his jumping holds up.

4:40 – Close Brothers Red Rum Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) – 2m

My initial two picks for the race were unfortunately not declared, which was disappointing. Unexpected Party, coming off a victory in the Grand Annual Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, has had an 8lb rise following that success. However, he’s unexposed over 2 miles. Another intriguing contender is stablemate Heltenham, who impressed with a recent win at Newbury over 2 miles 4 furlongs. Although he typically competes over longer distances, his adept jumping and strong travelling suggest he could still be competitive over the shorter trip, despite trainer Dan Skelton's less favourable record in races below 2 miles 4 furlongs at Aintree.

Path D'oroux appears to be improving in his jumping, evident from his career-best performance when finishing third in the Grand Annual last time out. With a weight advantage over the winner, he should be in contention, especially on a track that suits his style.

Irish Blaze, has shown improvement under the tutelage of trainer Cian Collins, securing wins at Down Royal and a commendable third-place finish at Punchestown. With a handy light weight and a front-running style suited to Aintree, he could be a contender, particularly if he manages to secure an uncontested lead.

Sans Bruit, a multiple hurdle and chase winner in France, showed promise on his first start over fences for Paul Nicholls with a second-place finish at Chepstow. With potential for improvement, especially on favorable ground, he presents another intriguing option in this competitive field.

Aintree Selection:

2:55 – Corbetts Cross – 4/1.

Good luck with your Aintree bets.

John

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