Hi all,

It’s time to buckle up for a rollercoaster four-day ride.  All the talking is done, it’s time for the action on the track to begin.

Let’s be honest, this jumps season has been one of the worst in years and the weather has been dreadful too. I can’t say I have been buzzing about the sport in recent weeks, but Cheltenham is here and I have a spring in my step.

Cheltenham Festival – Day 1

The highlight of day one's seven-race card is the prestigious Grade 1, two-mile Champion Hurdle. Nevertheless, the excitement kicks off with the Grade 1 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, setting the stage for a day packed with top class racing.

Here are some trends for the five ITV races.

1.30 – Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m ½ f

Only two clear favourites have won the race in the last ten years but 9 of the last 10 winners were returned 9/1 & under. 

Seven of the last ten winners were trained by Willie Mullins (4) or Nicky Henderson (3).

Nine of the last ten winners were aged five or six.

Nine of the last 10 winners were LTO winners.

Eight of the last ten won a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race on their last start.

Horses with an Official Rating below 138 are 0 winners from 107 runners, 5 placed since 2008.

2:10 – My Pension Expert Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices' Chase (Grade 1) – 2m

Clear favourites are 7 winners from 9 runners +4.04.

All the last ten winners were successful LTO.

Five of the last 10 Arkle Winners had won a race between 2m 2 ½ f & 2m 4f – 5 winners from 24 runners +35.69, 11 placed.

2:50 – Ultima Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) – 3m 1f

Despite being a big field handicap it’s been a good race for those at the front end of the market.

All the last 10 winners of the Ultima had run at Cheltenham.

Nine of the last 10 winners were returned 11/1 & under.

Nine of the last ten winners had won a race between 3m & 3m 3f.

3:30 – Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1) – 2m ½ f

No Constitution Hill but we still have a very short-priced favourite in the shape of State Man.

Nine of the last ten winners of the Champion Hurdle we're returned 9/1 & under.  Clear favourites are 7 winners from 10 runners +5.16.

Eight of the last ten winners of the race had an Official Rating of 161 or higher.

4:10 – Close Brothers Mares' Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m 4f

Favourites (Clear & joint) have won 3 of the last 10 renewals of the Mares Hurdle and have performed 44% worse than market expectations.

Eight of the last 10 winners had an Official Rating of 147 or higher.

Six of the last ten winners were trained by Willie Mullins (4) and Henry De Bromhead (2).

Cheltenham – Day 1 – Tote Placepot

Typically, I don't engage in Placepot bets, but during high turnover events such as the Cheltenham Festival, they become especially appealing.

If you’re having a go at the placepot here are some suggestions for Day 1.

1:30 – Mystical Power, Slade Steel & Jeriko Du Reponet

2:10 – Quilixios & JPR One

2:50 – Chianti Classico, Stumptown & Famous Bridge

3:30 – State Man

4:10 – Telmesomethinggirl & Lantry Lady

4:50 – Ndaawi, Palamon & Ose Partir.

This perm comes to 108 bets and works out as follows 3 x 2 x 3 x 1 x 2 x 3 = 108 bets.

I’m using 10p unit stakes, so my total stake is £10.80.

Initially, it might seem like a significant sum for a single bet, but it's comprised of 108 individual bets.

Good luck with your Cheltenham bets.

John