Morning all,

Like most of us I’m really looking forward to the year’s festival. Crowds are back and I think it’s going to be a special four days for that reason alone.

I mentioned last week that I might have final Cheltenham ante post selection for you, its not turned out to be the case. I’m more than happy to wait for 48-hour declarations for my race day selections.

My festival ante post portfolio, is compared to the last two seasons much smaller, Galvin apart I didn’t really get started until the beginning of January. I also missed the prices on a couple of possible selections but there’s no point in being concerned. What’s gone, is gone.

So, with no ante post selection this week, I have two more Cheltenham stats to share with you and you’ll find my festival Lucky 15. Plus, there is a Thursday selection from Wincanton.

Path To Cheltenham

My final Path to Cheltenham instalment. We’re down to just five days until the tapes go up on the Supreme Novices Hurdle. It’s going to be a long five days though. I’ll be trying to avoid the exchanges and oddschecker for the next few days.  Easy to say but I suspect it’s going to prove much harder to achieve in practice.

The six day confirmation stage entries for day one of the festival are out and Honeysuckle will face a maximum of nine rivals in the Champion Hurdle.

Looking at the weather forecast there could be 12mm of rain between now and Tuesday. The going at Cheltenham is good to soft, soft in places at the time of writing and it looks more than likely that will be the going on Tuesday. There’s spits and spots of rain during the week but it looks like a mostly drying scenario.

Cheltenham Festival Stats:

Breeding can be a useful in revealing whether a horse will handle the unique characteristics of Cheltenham.

Yeats at Cheltenham

Since the start of 2016 the progeny of Yeats are 18 winners from 116 runners 16% +49.79 39 placed 34% at Cheltenham.

If you look at his progeny’s record on good or good to soft going only their record is 15 winners from 70 runners 21% + 81.16 (BFSP +114.16) 30 placed 43%.  

As a comparison his progeny’s results on soft ground are 3 winners from 43 runners 7% -28.37 8 placed 19%.

That’s an excellent win & place strike rate and each way backers would have seen a +105.59 profit. Yeats had four winners at last year’s festival: Heaven Help Us (33/1), Chantry House (9/1) Flooring Porter (12/1) and Mount Ida (3/1).

The Market

I know plenty of punters like to look at horses at the front end of the betting and backing second favourites is popular.

If you had backed all second favourites blind at the festival since 2016 you would have seen the following results – 28 winners from 171 bets 16% -12.87 84 placed 49%

Tuesday – 5 winners from 39 bets -13.75 23 placed 59%

Wednesday – 10 winners from 45 bets 22% +12.63 23 placed 51%

Thursday – 9 winners from 40 bets 22% +14.5 19 placed 48%

Friday – 4 winners from 47 bets 9% -26.25 19 placed 40%

Second favourite backers should be looking at Wednesday & Thursday for profits and avoiding Friday.

Friday has also been a poor day for favourite backers with just 8 winners from 43 bets 19% -8.29 19 placed 44%. With Friday favourites performing 28% below market expectations.

Good Races for Second Favourites

Digging a bit deeper second favourite backers might do well to consider second favourites in the Champion Chase and the Glenfarclas Chase (Cross-Country). 

Looking at the last 14 renewals of the Champion Chase second favourites are 5 winners from 16 bets 31% +15.5 11 placed 69%. Backing the second favourite each way in the race would have seen +24.40 profit.

Looking at the fate of favourites and second favourites in the Cross-Country race.  

Favourites are 2 winners from 14 bets 14% -8.87 8 placed 57%.

Meanwhile second favourites are 6 winners from 14 bets 43% +15 11 placed 79%. For those backing the second favourite each way in the race the profit was +23.68.

Cheltenham Festival Lucky 15

I noticed yesterday that five of the Racing Post experts have put together Lucky 15’s. Inspired by their endeavours I’m going to be doing the same today. The four race’s I have chosen are ones I probably won’t be having further selections in.

Tuesday

Sir Gerhard – Supreme

This one comes with a big caveat we don’t know if Willie Mullins will opt for the Supreme or go for the Ballymore. We’ll know on Sunday lunchtime. I’m hoping he comes here with the 7-year-old who I think is the best novice hurdler we have seen this season.

Wednesday

Journey With Me – Ballymore

Should Sir Gerhard come for the Ballymore I would be concerned for my pick here. If he goes for the Supreme that opens things up for the Henry De Bromhead runner. The 6-year-old made it 2-2 over hurdles when winning at Naas last month and looks a useful prospect.

Thursday

Dinoblue – Mares Novices Hurdle

The mare has been one of the taking horses on the preview circuit. She jumped quickly and accurately for a novice when winning her sole start over hurdles at Clonmel in January. She’s open to plenty of improvement and looks an exciting prospect.

Friday

Winged Leader – Hunters Chase

Not a race I would normally be looking to have a beat in. Winged Leader, a multiple point and hunter chase winner, looks to have improved plenty this season as evidenced by his comfortable seasonal return win in a Thurles hunter chase in January. He’s a sound jumper of a fence and given he’s only an 8-year-old we may not have seen the best of him in the sphere.

Thursday Racing

There are jumps cards at Thurles, Carlisle, and Wincanton this afternoon. All-weather punters are also catered for with Southwell racing this afternoon and an evening fixture at Newcastle.

Wincanton

The going on the chase course is good to soft, good in places although some rain was forecast for Wednesday.

2:00 – Two of the King Writ’s best three RPR’s have come at Wincanton, including when a ¾ length 2^nd of 10 to Dawson City last January, off 8lb higher. The 11-year-old has been well beaten on both starts this season and on a long losing run but there’s no doubt he’s on winnable mark if he revives. 

Shanty Alley developed into a useful handicap chaser last season winning twice at Uttoxeter & Doncaster. Before arguably putting a career best when a 5-length 2^nd of 14 to Time To Get Up over C&D last February. The 8-year-old has failed to complete on either start this season.

Selection: Shanty Alley

Good luck with your Thursday bets.

John