Hi all,

A much as I enjoy the winter jumps season. It’s the flat that gets my pulse quickening. I make no apologies for saying that the racing on the level is my clear favourite of the two sphere’s of the sport.

For flat fans there’s something special about the start of the new season. You know that the warm weather isn’t to far away. However, more importantly there’s the excitement of the upcoming Classics.  

Will a superstar colt or filly emerge from the 3-year-old generation? 

Could we see a horse land the Triple Crown for the first time in 53 years?

The dreams for the new season are still very much alive for connections of Classic contenders. Ok, most of those dreams will disappear in a puff of smoke in the coming weeks but for now they’re very much alive.

Inside today’s main piece I look ahead to Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster.  Plus, there’s big priced selection from this evening’s meeting at Kempton.

Looking Ahead To The Weekend

Besides the Lincoln Handicap there’s a solid card of supporting races. The meeting gets underway with the Brocklesby Stakes (1.50) the first juvenile race of the new season. The Cammidge Trophy (3.00) and Doncaster Mile (4.10) both Listed contests are two other highlights on a seven race card.

ITV are covering the first four races from Doncaster and three from a competitive Kempton all-weather card.

Doncaster – Pertemps Network Lincoln Handicap

The new flat season gets underway in Britain on Saturday on April Fool’s Day at Doncaster. The Lincoln Handicap which as the name suggest began life at the now defunct Lincoln racecourse is the betting highlight of day one of the new season.

Run over Doncaster’s straight mile. This year’s race attracted a record number of entries this year tempted by the £50,000 increase in guaranteed prize money.

This year’s renewal looks on paper to be one of the best of recent seasons.

The going at Doncaster at the time of writing is soft, good to soft in places. It doesn’t seem like the ground will be any quicker come Saturday. The forecast is for unsettled weather and depending which one you look at, there could be between 10mm and 20mm of rain up until racing on Saturday.

Trends

Five of the last 14 Lincoln’s have been run on soft ground with the latest of the coming in 2018.  Admittedly a small sample size but looking at the draw on soft ground. Four of the winners of the race were drawn in either stalls 1 to 3 or 18+ – 4 winners from 37 runners +22, 12 placed. Those horses drawn in stalls 4 to 17 are – 1 winner from 65 runners -39, 8 placed.  Being drawn out on one of the wings can be advantage on soft ground.

The straight course at Doncaster, like Ascot can take some getting. Add in a strong pace and a contested gallop and its not easy to make all to win a Lincoln. That said being close to the pace needn’t be a disadvantage and nor does being patiently ridden.

All the last fourteen winners of the race were aged 4 to 6. Mind you 78% of the total runners were from that age group. If your going with that trend this year’s race won’t knock out many contenders just 7 of the 69 horses left in at Monday’s final confirmation stage were aged 7 or older. Mind you two of them Migration and Bopedro are on my long list.

Seven of the last 14 winners were last time out winners in Britain. Those qualifiers aged 4 to 6 with an Official Rating (OR) between 95 to 102 are – 7 winners from 31 runners +33.33, 12 placed. The first six ante post betting are all qualifiers using those trends.

Contenders:

I have eleven on my short list.  They include the William Haggas pair of Al Mubir and Montassib.Haggas will be bidding for a Lincoln Double having had the winner of the Irish Lincolnshire last Saturday. The trainer won this in 2010 & 2018 and both his runners would have to be considered if they ran.  

Ante post favourite Al Mubir seemed to relish heavy ground when winning at Haydock on final start last season. He’s open to further improvement and is high on the shortlist.

Montassib who should also be suited by the ground looks the type to win a strongly run mile handicap this season off his present mark.

Wanees was ¾ length in front of Montassib when the pair were first and second at Haydock last September. There shouldn’t be much between the pair at the revised weights. Wanees was a progressive 3-year-old last year and looks set for another good season.

I advised Empirestateofmind (each way)earlier this year at 40/1. He needs a couple to drop out but seems likely to get a run. I’m happy with his claims. He’s effective on soft ground and you can still get 25/1 about him with Paddy Power & William Hill which still seem fair to me.

Others on the short list include Atrium, Baradar, Awaal, Isla Kai & Arthur’s Realm. All five will be fine on the ground and all bar Awaal have won at Doncaster in the past. The plus side for the latter is he’s only had four career starts and could be Group performer this season. I won’t be adding to my ante post bet on Empirestateofmind just yet but will wait until I know the going/draw and final line-up, etc. However, it’s a race where I will likely have a couple of more picks.

Wednesday Selection

Given my present vein of form I think I need to start laying my selections. Although I wouldn’t be wanting to lay today’s selection given his price.

Kempton

7:30 – Sir Dancealot, a multiple Group 2 winner in 2018 & 2019, returned from a two year absence for a new yard last summer and showed glimpses of his old ability. Clearly not the horse he was but the 9-year-old has dropped down to a good mark when all the cards fall right. First tun for 179-days so fitness has to be taken on trust but if his trainer has him ready to roll, I think he can go close.

Sir Dancealot – 12/1 @ Bet365.

Good luck with your Wednesday bets.

Cheers

John